Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[northwestsnow]

Is 144 cold enough for snow flurries????

 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Is 144 cold enough for snow flurries????

 

The uppers -5c / -6c / moderate low heights.

Possibly over the tops of the downs > 200M

[Allseasons-Si]

The ecm at 144...

UK...

certainly chilly with perhaps some snow grains.

[northwestsnow]

Unbelievable Jeff ! 

EC builds a Scandy high ...

 

 

[blizzard81]

Hmmm, this has got all the hallmarks of a creeping type of cold that seems to come from nowhere.

[Tim Bland]

Looks just about cold enough. Perhaps some more persistent light sleet / snow in the south east and east...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is 144 cold enough for snow flurries????

 

should be off E'ly, unlike NW or W'ly where need -10

[Tim Bland]

Looking forward to seeing the snow depth charts when they update to see the possibilities...looks good for high ground 250m+ and plenty of time for upgrades 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Tim Bland

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

should be off E'ly, unlike NW or W'ly where need -10

Don't get me started on North westerlies !!!

Fwiw higher pennines might getca dusting

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looking forward to seeing the snow depth charts when they update to see the possibilities...looks good for high ground 250m+ and plenty of time for upgrades 

Cotswolds might be good in this scenario!

Edited November 22, 2020 by Steve Murr

[TSNWK]

Nice short term upgrades.. although the scandi high does appear to be sinking south east at 168.. is there enough wriggle room to prevent......

but yes! Very nice mid term upgrade

[blizzard81]

SNOW! I mean eeerrr sleet. Maybe lol. 

[SMU]

Big snowstorm over the states @192 -

Meanwhile it would appear another continental flows about to develop at 216.

In the meantime > stationary air over the UK & -4c uppers could mean nice frosty conditions...

[Eskimo]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Cotswolds might be good in this scenario!

Unfortunately, the precip doesn't make it any further west that what's showing below. 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

Unfortunately, the precip doesn't make it any further west that what's showing below. 

That would be a 162 chart for 00z > try the 168 window for 12z Sun...

[Eskimo]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

That would be a 162 chart for 00z > try the 168 window for 12z Sun...

It's the 12z run Steve. 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Unfortunately, the precip doesn't make it any further west that what's showing below. 

And its all rain - apart from the highest Welsh mountains.

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

It's the 12z run Steve. 

I know but you have posted the chart for 00z Sun 29th which means its the timestamp for 156.

162 & 168 are further west but not much snow highlighted

Edited November 22, 2020 by Steve Murr

[damianslaw]

This week has seen major flip flopping in the models from day to day, today we see a much more anticyclonic outlook to close the month out - Met Officer a bit too soon in dropping the idea of a settled spell perhaps?

Today UKMO, ECM and GFS all in agreement of a stand off between the atlantic and building continental heights to our east, models suggesting such heights could be quite robust and extensive and energy in the atlantic looks weak. 

If things verify as shown, then a very nice settled end to what will have been a mostly unsettled Autumn. Bceoming quite cold as well, with surface temps struggling under the dense chilly air. Very seasonal, typical given many places I suspect will have been having there first christmas fairs and markets if not already, christmas light switch on, local events. Alas I'll be happy just for a drying out and some welcome sunshine, some frost wouldn't go amiss either.

[SMU]

Snow for the Northern belt come day 10 as we get trough disruption...

All of a sudden thats twice ive mentioned snow today...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Day 10 ECM setting up for a big -NAO a couple of days later

[markw2680]

There’s absolutely no point in looking at precipitation charts for next weekend, there will be soo many changes during the week, would be great to see these charts verify but what are the chances? It’s all about trends at this stage and if it’s there this time tomorrow and most other models are Similar then you just never no, things have improved the last couple of days but take one day at a time

[booferking]

Can't see much from this continental feed it's what happens after that I'm interested in as what @CreweCold^^ potentially -NAO setting up for a long term cold spell as we head into December. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow for the Northern belt come day 10 as we get trough disruption...

All of a sudden thats twice ive mentioned snow today...

Looking at the first area of interest the way the pattern is shaping up currently on the models has similarities with the Feb 2009 cold pool of course this one isn't as cold but that's to be expected given the time of year but things continuing to head in an interesting direction

[Eskimo]

The ECM is more progressive with the heights to the NE, but the GEM sings from the same hymn sheet at day 10 with the low diving SE. One to watch for sure.