Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[damianslaw]

Sticking to the 120-144 hr timeframe, both GFS and ECM on same page, an amplified pattern with downstream trough moving through Wed, ridge building northwards behind, followed by low height development Iberia, rising heights to our NE. Both show the Atlantic shut away and we are left in a bit of no man land, would not take much for continental heights to gain the upper hand, all depends on how much pressure is forced on them from the PV. 

Edited November 22, 2020 by damianslaw

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Maybe mate!!was wrong yesteday at 144 hours so hopefully wrong again!!!

How can it have been wrong at 144 yesterday when that is still in the future?

When there is disagreement between models (especially euros) we usually see a gradual meeting in the middle.

[Ice Day]

Whilst nothing notable on the ground showing, after a pretty tedious week of model watching we're finally starting to see some interest via a disrupting PV.

This at 240 (ECM) showing the PV moving away from its recent Greenland home allowing heights to build in where we would want them.  Details pointless at this stage, but at least it's giving some interest.  If this is a trend, it would be very welcome (well, for the coldies anyway!!!).

[swfc]

20 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Whilst nothing notable on the ground showing, after a pretty tedious week of model watching we're finally starting to see some interest via a disrupting PV.

This at 240 (ECM) showing the PV moving away from its recent Greenland home allowing heights to build in where we would want them.  Details pointless at this stage, but at least it's giving some interest.  If this is a trend, it would be very welcome (well, for the coldies anyway!!!).

I agree with your post in regard to the PV movement. I'd be guessing at 240 hrs it won't varify but still. Looking at the ongoing pressure Heighths to the ese I don't see any real helpfull cold coming our way in the near term. Has you say the PV moving east and mabye a west based neg nao may be the best bet. I think BA alluded to this I think? If I were a betting man "which I am and pretty rank" I'd suspect the north Atlantic riding and sse jet could be on the cards. Not sure of the sst ete but with the correct 850s it wouldn't be without interest esp for the north and west esp with any altitude. Just has a side note the 10hpa tems at there lowest have trending to a more east based position

Edited November 22, 2020 by swfc

[mushymanrob]

Theres nothing cold on these charts, just the usual westerly sourced upper flow, so unsettled with some PM incursions at times that may bring wintry showers.

Yeah, i know, this wont be the most popular post, lol, but it does highlight why some of us use these charts, so not to be suckered in by fanciful GFS runs that are highly unlikely to verify. Ok i get it, its no fun, and some enjoy the rollercoaster of false hope....

 

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z not backing the ukmo at 144 hours!!!would love to see what a middle ground might look like!!!

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres nothing cold on these charts, just the usual westerly sourced upper flow, so unsettled with some PM incursions at times that may bring wintry showers.

Yeah, i know, this wont be the most popular post, lol, but it does highlight why some of us use these charts, so not to be suckered in by fanciful GFS runs that are highly unlikely to verify. Ok i get it, its no fun, and some enjoy the rollercoaster of false hope....

 

Yes in all honesty that is the most likely outcome. I think anything if at all will come from the wnw but given the current output wouldn't discount some subtle changes in our vacinity with the correct 850s and altitude. The chance of a west based - nao/or significant Atlantic ridge maybe slight but time will tell

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 06z not backing the ukmo at 144 hours!!!would love to see what a middle ground might look like!!!

Disappointment.

[Anthony Burden]

Looking at 06z gfs I think odds are turning in favour of Scandinavian high pressure to win 

against Atlantic low over Iceland from midweek.This will change the forecast if correct 

very interesting.

 

 

 

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 06z not backing the ukmo at 144 hours!!!would love to see what a middle ground might look like!!!

Tbh over the years I've often heard it said by the more experienced on here is the ukmo is one to follow esp during winter. Personally I've no idea 

Edited November 22, 2020 by swfc

[sheikhy]

Just now, swfc said:

Tbh over the years I've often heard it said by the more experienced on here is the one to follow esp during winter. Personally I've no idea 

Yeh pretty dangerous to discount it considering its been a party pooper on the past!!hopefully it improves on the 12z!!!infact i hope we see upgrades all round in regards to the scandi ridge later on!!!

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Tbh over the years I've often heard it said by the more experienced on here is the ukmo is one to follow esp during winter. Personally I've no idea 

In all the nearly eighteen-years I've been on net-weather I've learned one simple thing: that the 'model to follow' is the one that 'predicts' the most snow... Any snow really!

[Tim Bland]

Plenty of possibilities for a scandi high and more energy into Europe on 06z GFS. Hard to have much faith in anything beyond day 7 though as it’s choping and changing every run - see last run included below for comparison 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh pretty dangerous to discount it considering its been a party pooper on the past!!hopefully it improves on the 12z!!!infact i hope we see upgrades all round in regards to the scandi ridge later on!!!

The only problem getting a decent scandi high from where we are currently is the alignment of the jet in pulling it west. Can't see it on the gfs or ecm "currently" also getting the 850svwest needs a lot of boxes ticking for our small island. Who knows tho now I've posted this

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

In all the nearly eighteen-years I've been on net-weather I've learned one simple thing: that the 'model to follow' is the one that 'predicts' the most snow... Any snow really!

Over the last few years i have learned the opposite, particularly if you want to present an accurate forecast.

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

In all the nearly eighteen-years I've been on net-weather I've learned one simple thing: that the 'model to follow' is the one that 'predicts' the most snow... Any snow really!

Possibly the best post of the year and most accurate

[Scandinavian High.]

I think we seeing now high pressure ne dominate now  dryer colder Continental feed we losing Mobile westerly pattern very slowly..

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A40198C3-F294-4F1C-A51C-3B27AD417FF8.webp

Edited November 22, 2020 by abbie123

[swfc]

Gfs a bit of a dogs dinner in fi. That said it is moving the tpv away from greenland towards the ene somewhat like ec. Well it is while later today

[carinthian]

The shorter range ICON model picks up a shallow low pressure feature develop over the SE by Friday morning. Probably a formation along the slow moving cold front. The temp at 500mb is forecast at -28c  with small cold pool development. Could be the coldest day in the SE for sometime with a showery flow off the North Sea and relatively low dew points inland. Longer term we are starting to pick up signals for a gradual fall on pressure over mainland Europe towards the end of next week. 

C

[SMU]

Enjoyable morning runs - The GFS 06z sees more runs encouraging that upper cold pool west - with the flow alligned better> its reflected in the means at around 168-180.

If you compare the 00z 192 mean the UK is in a westerly flow, however the 182 mean for the UK we are in an Easterly flow.

For that to happen there has to be a fair swing in the ENS to adjust the flow west..

More runs popping up like this

Edited November 22, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Methuselah]

In all honesty, I do not much care for the 06Z's evolution... a perpetual drift of ex-Mediterranean air, with T850s at around +4C certainly isn't going to give me what I want... SNOW!

    

More runs needed!

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 6z  @t276

A decent looking 1040 hPa near Scandi for 3rd Dec. on the GFS 6z.  Can it hold on or influence our weather or not that is the question ? 

Cold and crisp rather than wind and rain looking increasingly more likely for early Winter perhaps.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Jeremy Shockey

[Anthony Burden]

Met office who suggested settled conditions for the first part of December,then changed their 

forecast to unsettled after gfs showed Atlantic on slaught.Perhaps should have remained with

the first forecast.

[dragan]

regardless of partial graduation, ultimately we end up with a mild south easterly.......not all easterlies are equal according to Jack, and you can see that in evidence  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Met office who suggested settled conditions for the first part of December,then changed their 

forecast to unsettled after gfs showed Atlantic on slaught.Perhaps should have remained with

the first forecast.

Probably find it will be GFS 12Z that changes to unsettled