Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Mark wheeler]

Well in the summer I was posting the mighty Navgem , However it’s time to change Tac and herald the all mighty and conquering GFS pub run 12 z  , They may be closed but you can still get hammered on these charts alone , I’ll drink to that   

Right I’m off to view the Navgem, Hiccup 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Allseasons-Si]

And after that northerly it would be cold and frosty enough keeping any snow that has fallen on the ground assuming this run was to verify,this has more chance of verifying than an easterly in my opinion. 

OK,the pub run was a good run and there could be a repeat too after that as the high pressure mostly stays out to our west.

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The control run at day ten has a runner low into southern counties/midlands perhaps producing snow on it's northern flank

also,look at that Atlantic profile sharpening up,not your typical zonal sh te.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Allseasons-Si]

And the control is about to produce a northerly.

[Zak M]

Some similarities between the GFS control and op run...

   

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Some similarities between the GFS control and op run...

   

Yes Zak

let's hope that it is picking up a new signal/trend now

i feel this is more feasible.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well lo and behold, things perhaps turning wintry into early Dec

[Allseasons-Si]

Pert 23 showing the goods again...

a ripping nor easter.

and pert 11 giving us a pv visit.

 

 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well lo and behold, things perhaps turning wintry into early Dec

Yes Crew,there is quite a number of gefs ens showing a gfs op/control scenario.

[Allseasons-Si]

Well i have got to tell you even that it is well out of our reach...

i give you the chart of the season by far

pert 11

Edited November 22, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Zak M]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well i have got to tell you even that it is well out of our reach...

i give you the chart of the season by far

pert 11

And here’s the uppers...

 

Very good chart!

[swfc]

Morning. 6z gfs  blows away the strong block in fi  and leaves, well not much tbh. Unsettled and cool one run and still none the wiser 

Edited November 22, 2020 by swfc

[Cheshire Freeze]

TPV looks in a fair bit of mither by day 9 on the ECM...

[swfc]

Ec looks OK nhp wise but insipid Heighths to the sse. PV moving east but again day ten? 

[northwestsnow]

Again EC more amplified compared to UKMO at 144...

I'm not paying to much attention to anything thereafter because of this.

Edited November 22, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Nick F]

EPS means at T+300 could be worse, at least there are low heights over SW Europe/western Med and +ve height anomaly over Scandi. With weak (compared to the norm) troughing signal in the means to our west and NW.

Trouble is, there is no strong signal for Scandi block to extend far enough west in the guidance, due to the pressure imposed by the TPV over Greenland extending out over the NE Atlantic, plus lack of jet energy diverting into SW Europe - which with time comes cut-off with all the jet energy going NE.

Still, there is a great deal of uncertainty over how long the blocking signal to our east and NE will hold back a return to mobility from the Atlantic.

 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Nick F

[sheikhy]

Ecm and gfs still look interesting!!ukmo once again going off on its merry way at 144 hours!!dunno whats happened with that model last couple of days!!

[Griff]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm and gfs still look interesting!!ukmo once again going off on its merry way at 144 hours!!dunno whats happened with that model last couple of days!!

Might it be right? 

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Griff said:

Might it be right? 

Maybe mate!!was wrong yesteday at 144 hours so hopefully wrong again!!!

[sheikhy]

20 minutes ago, Griff said:

Might it be right? 

Infact griff i thought let me check the chart from 144 hours on ukmo to todays 120 hours and its a massive difference!!!gone is that pesky shortwave that came out the states on the chart yesterday and is now replace with a ridge at 120 hours instead!!also more amplified around uk and norway!!what do the 12zs have in store for us

[Iceaxecrampon]

On 19/11/2020 at 09:13, Iceaxecrampon said:

*BANK*

See you back on here on the 7th!

00z for Sunday 6th December

 

[Ali1977]

If we are here on day 10 any coldies should be happy, the PV has definitely not set up shop

in it’s usual rubbish position that screams Zonal . We just need Europe to cool down , then if we do get a continental feed it’ll have some bite!! 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

TPV looks in a fair bit of mither by day 9 on the ECM...

Seems pretty strong but other side of the NH on the means ...... some v interesting output for coldies (judged against the last two winters) seems possible for the first half dec  .......... given the low solar input of dec we don’t need really low uppers across the near continent for slider scenarios to bring snowfall ...... 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Seems pretty strong but other side of the NH on the means ...... some v interesting output for coldies (judged against the last two winters) seems possible for the first half dec  .......... given the low solar input of dec we don’t need really low uppers across the near continent for slider scenarios to bring snowfall ...... 

Caution always required at these timeframes ...

But if we could just get some decent energy into Europe that could unlock the Atlantic amplification door...

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z at T+357... not quite the fun and games of yesterday, but...

    

The op's a wee bit on the 'warm' side of les ensembles:

    

    

And the NH profiles:

 

    

    

So there you have it: no small, furry animals in sight!