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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GFS 12z op it’s great too seee the u k tending to become drier towards the end of November?...ps..also great too see knocker posting again..even if it’s only about methane?

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

How's that for warm air advection? 

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Come to papa....

BB4085DF-F9D2-4D3D-B6C6-C8F8B1C78978.png

Yeah similar to the morning's 06z run though the high topples in deep fl,all academic though that for out but nice to see some consistency.

 

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There are more GFS members creating that skinny Scandi High >
 

Take the UKMO 144 & compare with PTB 2 

99DC735F-3703-44A3-8FFE-CD47B44A46E8.thumb.png.cdccef026c224e8fa316ae68d3791cfd.png5F795A24-661C-455B-A033-9E17CB688777.thumb.png.1ce314f305d751d09454a77235417687.png

Ends up continental flow

B54890E3-D520-49ED-936C-013B505C37B0.thumb.png.06911d96616571dd33c95056c420f89e.png

Some more positive vibes is that there is deeper cold to the NE across the piste this eve as well...

Finely poised..

This PTB is notably close to what we want with just a smidge more amplification

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Pert 23 would be the daddy out of them all synoptic wise with WAA going up the west side of Greenland,pv relocated over Siberia and lower heights to our south,a northerly blast of sorts coming up on this i would of thought.

gensnh-23-1-228.thumb.png.58d65262cd8e60f71a29485f08bdc480.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Pert 23 would be the daddy out of them all synoptic wise with WAA going up the west side of Greenland,pv relocated over Siberia and lower heights to our south,a northerly blast of sorts coming up on this i would of thought.

gensnh-23-1-228.thumb.png.58d65262cd8e60f71a29485f08bdc480.png

Can you explain what is causing the sudden change in the last 24 hours towards a colder outlook? Dont think there is any warming high up either at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Can you explain what is causing the sudden change in the last 24 hours towards a colder outlook? Dont think there is any warming high up either at the moment

there is no real cold outlook.

i think it’s more people thinking that there a better potential for cold, however there is no cold charts showing 

Edited by dragan
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, sheikhy said:

Can you explain what is causing the sudden change in the last 24 hours towards a colder outlook? Dont think there is any warming high up either at the moment

The signs have been in the output for a while.

We're seeing a continued disconnect between the strat and the trop, most likely being aided by continuing Russian/Siberian heights. It's the one thing I look for in November.

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The signs have been in the output for a while.

We're seeing a continued disconnect between the strat and the trop, most likely being aided by continuing Russian/Siberian heights. It's the one thing I look for in November.

Does this mean a good chance of an easterly later on going off these charts? 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The signs have been in the output for a while.

We're seeing a continued disconnect between the strat and the trop, most likely being aided by continuing Russian/Siberian heights. It's the one thing I look for in November.

Zero interest in the seasonal or the Met Office long range for anything continental though.

That's what concerns me and why I'm taking any Scandi influence with a large pinch of salt.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Can you explain what is causing the sudden change in the last 24 hours towards a colder outlook? Dont think there is any warming high up either at the moment

I will try Shakey

at the moment the models are forecasting trough disruption close to/or west of the UK as heights build to our NE,this trough disruption being forced SE into Iberia lowering heights there,then the forecast/models get a little sketchy after that,if we keep the lowering of heights to the south into mainland Europe then this in turn will prop the heights up then a possibility of heights retrogressing west into the Atlantic and then Greenland

don't take this as gospel,we need the trough disruption to go right first.   

as Crew says there is a disconnect between strat/trop but if we can tap into some of that cold that is showing on the 30 hpa chart,it could be a potent blast

pole30_nh.thumb.gif.bed60695e95410a690a5667791536734.gif

also La nina could be influencing Atlantic heights later on so something to watch out for as is shown in some of the gefs ens.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
9 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

The charts are definitely onto something. Something is going on in the background as they keep flipping 

onto what?? The fact they disagree far out...?

I mean, it could end up with a cold spell......but far far far more likely it will end up ‘average’ as they are showing. Uncertainty is more likely to = some sort of westerly influence......because thats what we get 80/90% of the time 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS 12Z is cool to cold throughout...

Should be noted ukmo is totally different with the Azores high and probably would go unsettled after 144..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, booferking said:

Number 3 please.☃️:snowman-emoji:

gensnh-3-1-324.png

gensnh-3-0-324.png

Yes,like the look of that and later on the crab is about to pince us with it's left claw

gensnh-3-1-360.thumb.png.51818815e0b60c0e44131fee2f8dfd57.pngRed-Claw-Crabs.thumb.jpg.0ffb8e0d4010821dbf51ccaa9f152c28.jpg

some good ens in there but they always show this in fl

lets see what the ecm comes up with.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Interesting . Met might need to copy an paste previous wording and replace new wording. To be fair small correction east or west makes big differences to us on our little island.

5BE82617-C4E4-4B7E-BC4A-6B93B910E10E.jpeg

ECH1-120.gif

Edited by That ECM
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