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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Just now, Steve Murr said:

17E08FB1-AABC-4FEA-9555-EB3AE0D3907B.thumb.jpeg.45191492de75176f9175e6655937a982.jpeg

 

ECM + GFS perhaps on the same page for a change...

I was about to say a quick check on the GFS has scuppered my going to bed... +156

gfsnh-0-156.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

ECM still not letting go the idea of +ht Anomalies towards Scandinavia. 

Trying to view things from a glass half full perspective it is worth watching I think as all modelling suggests Atlantic troughing heading more south east in the coming days. 

At least this will bring some colder interludes as we draw air from further north in the Atlantic. 

If the ECM is onto something and we see a block appear to the north east then Atlantic trough disruption would be the next step. 

A long shot at the moment but the NH profile is not the worst with the weakness in the PV over the Siberian sector.

At least we have a chance of a change in the medium term which I guess is better than looking at charts all saying raging zonalty. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Interesting to note lowering height development over Iberia and N Africa, this should supress the azores high from wanting to ridge NE, and possibly help anchor the atlantic trough on a more NW-SE alignment.  We shall see.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmmm...

No doubt GFS will blow the block away but perhaps EC is onto something!!??

No doubt or a little perhaps? 

gfsnh-0-186.png

The pubs must have reopened? 

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs is a step in the right direction to the ECM as Steve says...

but we don't want these two lows to phase with one another,this would prevent blocking taking hold and cut off the cold feed west.

gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.1699e5dae8e87e2b68e23b6015350e6f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is a step in the right direction to the ECM as Steve says...

but we don't want these two lows to phase with one another,this would prevent blocking taking hold and cut off the cold feed west.

gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.1699e5dae8e87e2b68e23b6015350e6f.png

TBH its a long shot of anything soon, there is a positive if that chart verified however, it might just buy us a little more time by breaking into the lower strat, even then though would prefer stronger waves.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

GFS 18z shifts the lowering heights over Iberia further east into southern europe, again this would help to anchor the trough on a more NW-SE alignment. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Interestingly the pub GFS now considering the heights to the ne. 

Models keep coming back to this but just not yet in a reliable time frame. 

Let's see where we are tomorrow. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Interestingly the pub GFS now considering the heights to the ne. 

Models keep coming back to this but just not yet in a reliable time frame. 

Let's see where we are tomorrow. 

 

With the PV positioned how it is, away from Siberia this does allow for height development to our NE, a bit of warm air advection in advance of the atlantic trough and this would also help to build such heights, trough disruption or NW-SE elongation would then be able to manifest as indicated by some of the models in recent days. Whilst not a path to anything notably cold, a more colder unsettled outlook could set in with PM shots at least. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Interestingly the pub GFS now considering the heights to the ne. 

Models keep coming back to this but just not yet in a reliable time frame. 

Let's see where we are tomorrow. 

 

Probably back down to earth from cloud cuckoo land with a full on zonal no doubt

that has been the theme in recent days with the morning runs much flatter

we just need these day ten charts to become unstuck. 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

Good evening everyone.

Lots of early winter obituaries in the last few days, and for good reason, but are we absolutely sure there isn’t a twist in the tale?

A closer inspection suggests that a long locked in zonal spell Isn’t quite nailed on yet. The models have yet to fully resolve the deconstruction of Tuesday’s trough and the angle of the jet crossing the Atlantic behind it. ECM control, op and mean + the latest GFS look a lot like the Nina phase 2 mjo composite.image.thumb.png.582a2271a404b64fbc6071cf61e69036.png

Even the Iberian low also present 

image.thumb.png.31eb9e1103f2fb2085d31dc20bffec0b.png

image.thumb.png.ddc93a8e79449cf02f81310b47b8a46b.png

The GEM too with a similar theme image.thumb.png.235570ab4724333a798874b48df98c3f.png

So we wake up tomorrow and 

a) All the energy goes North East, we curse the models and hours tick by on this forum without posts 

or

b) see a)

Seriously though , a much better evening since that ECM op. We’ll all by back tomorrow to check, that’s for sure

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

There is next to no hope of GFS modelling split energy at day 10 correctly....

Coldies need to hope we begin to see consistency in these heights to the NE....

Without them it looks pretty grim....

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Has ecm ever modelled blocking to the NE over Scandi at days 9 and 10 that actually verified in the end

Yes. It has. December 2009. ECM, GFS, and later UKMO, all called the brilliant northern blocking without fail from the ultra FI charts, tick tock down to T-0. It was nailed on AND delivered!

But that was nirvana. Hasn't been repeated since!

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
22 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Yes. It has. December 2009. ECM, GFS, and later UKMO, all called the brilliant northern blocking without fail from the ultra FI charts, tick tock down to T-0. It was nailed on AND delivered!

But that was nirvana. Hasn't been repeated since!

SLEETY asked about Scandi blocking, 2009 wasn't via a Scandi block but (amazing) Greenland blocking, see attached image. 

 

NOAA_1_2009122018_1.png

NOAA_1_2009121918_1.png

Edited by NorthernRab
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I have been constantly saying that people are prematurely writing things off.

Here's 10 years+ worth of experience of analysing model output. When you see certain nuances repeated in the output, you get a sense of where you may be headed next. Seeing the models attempting to have LP approaching negatively tilted, constant heights to the E and troughing struggling to make it past the meridian, you know something is stirring in the background.

I think the weariness is due to the EC46 being a little premature with it's wintry givings. I also look avidly for that negatively tilted atlantic trough scenario and it has to be said, that is the trend of today. The trend has got stronger through the day. 

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I have been constantly saying that people are prematurely writing things off.

Here's 10 years+ worth of experience of analysing model output. When you see certain nuances repeated in the output, you get a sense of where you may be headed next. Seeing the models attempting to have LP approaching negatively tilted, constant heights to the E and troughing struggling to make it past the meridian, you know something is stirring in the background.

Agree. There's 2 trends forming this Autumn time or run after run- the Azores High trying to ridge up towards Mid Atlantic has kept appearing. But also these increased heights towards the E this month as well. 

It's all pointing towards warm area invection. After all, what goes up.....must come down!  

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

T144 of all 3 models.  Ukmo is less like the other 2. 

D4EDCB98-B772-471B-8945-D6761F7BBE39.png

0F911714-6918-407B-8DFB-33C86838D051.png

33F6C633-3D53-48BA-8509-0F19A129E774.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 of all 3 models. 

D4EDCB98-B772-471B-8945-D6761F7BBE39.png

0F911714-6918-407B-8DFB-33C86838D051.png

33F6C633-3D53-48BA-8509-0F19A129E774.png

Interesting all 3 show the low pressure towards southern Spain / North Africa. 

Any point looking beyond a week's time? 

 

ECM vs GFS at 168 this morning... 

ECH1-168.gif

gfsnh-0-168 (1).png

Edited by Griff
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