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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I am questioning the usefulness of seasonal models which showed much higher probability of blocking in the Atlantic in Nov/Dec, reality being any blocking hope so far came from EC/GFS charts post 192h and in Scandi not Atlantic. Going forward only looks worse. 

But their was supposed to be the La Nina footprint so not unexpected. 

The reality is that despite La Nina, favourable IDO, uncoupled strat/Trop PV, solar minimum etc  the Winter weather is the same as ever.

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

But their was supposed to be the La Nina footprint so not unexpected. 

The reality is that despite La Nina, favourable IDO, uncoupled strat/Trop PV, solar minimum etc  the Winter weather is the same as ever.

It’s not winter yet??

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

GFS ends with the PV in tatters and -18 uppers over Scandinavia - ready to pounce if the dice fall in our favor . Chin up folks it’s not even winter yet...

11AB2E65-FDA9-4434-AF16-CBE781FC2CA0.png

44449FE3-9690-4F06-85CE-524318515D7C.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Heading out of November into the first week of December, the small picture, the UK, and it is wetter than drier, cooler than warmer, not really zonal, more trough influenced with the Azores High omnipresent, oscillating at times. All-in-all very typical UK time-wasting winter weather.

D8-16: anim_iob1.gif

The bigger picture has the sPV powering up and the tPV more organised than not. There is a suggestion an MJO wave is not showing up in the models yet (Twitter-sphere) so maybe some changes?

So for a predicted front-loaded winter, it is uninspiring.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
30 minutes ago, saintkip said:

It’s not winter yet??

Indeed.

But if the day 10 ECM is anywhere right  then we would be at least a couple of weeks from a proper Winter spell, which would take us into Winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nice cold-pool up to the NE, on the GFS 00Z, at T+384::santa-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, of course it'll verify!

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Typical November output this morning. 

Any potential blocking being swept away from the west. 

Plenty of unsettled weather and feeling colder at times with the mean jet path further south. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Much frustration on here this morning and is it any wonder? Most winters since 2010 have been a bore fest so the gnawing of teeth is very understandable. As Anthony has already mentioned, it's going to be interesting to see if the meto extended gets revised soon. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Can we keep it to the models in here please, speculation about winter overall, climate change etc are all fine to discuss but in the relevant threads for them.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
40 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Met office will need to

change their 6 to 30 day forecast if gfs is correct.

I disagree. If I was the met forecaster I’d be fairly happy for the time being. The GFS shows an unsettled spell with northwesterly / PM incursions with uppers around -4c so showers turning wintry over the higher ground. Met office 6-30 dayer says ..

”Unsettled interludes bringing spells of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, especially in the north and west. Temperatures look to be around average with increasing incidence of overnight frost, as is typical for this time of year, as well as bringing an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over high ground.”

3467BEB7-5230-4EEA-A431-F61A397CFC52.png

DF61F879-1E75-4411-8FB1-70BDAAA04070.png

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Good cold spells often arise from a spell of model-watching that go through spells of total optimism  to total despair such as we are seeing now.

I'm now strangely more confident of something coming along of a wintry nature soon, even if we're not getting November 2010, I can't explain why but It just seems to be how these things go. I'll be expecting to see a lot more optimism in here come tomorrow.  :)

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes Tim B, The Models certainly showing very avg/normal weather for late Autumn as we head into Winter with cool sometimes cold PM shots from the N/W with some milder air being drawn up as systems pass.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

This is from Twitter.

The models are missing a developing MJO wave that’s strengthening over the Indian Ocean. Two week forecast uncertainty is quite high because of this.
Anybody know why this is happening??

are we going to a sudden shift in the models??

Edited by fromey
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, fromey said:

This is from Twitter.

The models are missing a developing MJO wave that’s strengthening over the Indian Ocean. Two week forecast uncertainty is quite high because of this.
Anybody know why this is happening??

are we going to a sudden shift in the models??

Who tweeted that? If true, then yep, good question as to why the models are missing it. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, fromey said:

This is from Twitter.

The models are missing a developing MJO wave that’s strengthening over the Indian Ocean. Two week forecast uncertainty is quite high because of this.
Anybody know why this is happening??

are we going to a sudden shift in the models??

I've not seen this fromey but I'd guess it would cause the earlier blocking signal however short it was to flip to a more normal base outlook currently. Mabye Sharon tropposy could nip on here and give a clue

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
15 minutes ago, fromey said:

This is from Twitter.

The models are missing a developing MJO wave that’s strengthening over the Indian Ocean. Two week forecast uncertainty is quite high because of this.
Anybody know why this is happening??

are we going to a sudden shift in the models??

Is this a potential good shift from a coldies perspective or a further shift away from Nivea 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

You would think today's 6z 144h chart for next Tuesday would be more accurate than yesterday's 168h chart for the same time. Lets hope so because the 144h chart shows the trough to the west showing a significant negative tilt when compared to yesterday's 168h chart which showed it positively tilted. To anyone who isn't sure what negative tilt refers to then just think of the trough doing a limbo dance

Screenshot_20201120-101519.png

Screenshot_20201120-101430.png

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
17 minutes ago, fromey said:

This is from Twitter.

The models are missing a developing MJO wave that’s strengthening over the Indian Ocean. Two week forecast uncertainty is quite high because of this.
Anybody know why this is happening??

are we going to a sudden shift in the models??

It probably applies more to America then us first = Pacific jet behavior. EC has very weak MJO but there are discussions on twitter that models are not seeing propagation trough maritime continent which may happen. For us any effect would be felt if MJO is to continue through western Pacific in to phase 7 at least to induce enough of a Rossby wave train to help promoting blocking to the north = raising AAM momentum. But the interference of La Nina easterlies may not help. That is why there was a debate about EP La Nina being better then CP La Nina. With CP La Nina it is unlikely that MJO would be favored to enter phases 7 and 8. With this configuration at the moment we have a hybrid Nina with ENSO region of 4 seen a slight moderation in recent weeks, but note sure weather overall easterly tropical element will permit MJO to effect European weather regimes. 

But perhaps if EC long range has initialized MJO parametres wrong then their zonal 46d would be probably wrong, that is the hope. Any MJO infuence may only be seen after Dec 10 in weather models. 

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
44 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I disagree. If I was the met forecaster I’d be fairly happy for the time being. The GFS shows an unsettled spell with northwesterly / PM incursions with uppers around -4c so showers turning wintry over the higher ground. Met office 6-30 dayer says ..

”Unsettled interludes bringing spells of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, especially in the north and west. Temperatures look to be around average with increasing incidence of overnight frost, as is typical for this time of year, as well as bringing an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over high ground.”

3467BEB7-5230-4EEA-A431-F61A397CFC52.png

DF61F879-1E75-4411-8FB1-70BDAAA04070.png

Met office also say more settled conditions over U.K.

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
22 minutes ago, jules216 said:

It probably applies more to America then us first = Pacific jet behavior. EC has very weak MJO but there are discussions on twitter that models are not seeing propagation trough maritime continent which may happen. For us any effect would be felt if MJO is to continue through western Pacific in to phase 7 at least to induce enough of a Rossby wave train to help promoting blocking to the north = raising AAM momentum. But the interference of La Nina easterlies may not help. That is why there was a debate about EP La Nina being better then CP La Nina. With CP La Nina it is unlikely that MJO would be favored to enter phases 7 and 8. With this configuration at the moment we have a hybrid Nina with ENSO region of 4 seen a slight moderation in recent weeks, but note sure weather overall easterly tropical element will permit MJO to effect European weather regimes. 

But perhaps if EC long range has initialized MJO parametres wrong then their zonal 46d would be probably wrong, that is the hope. Any MJO infuence may only be seen after Dec 10 in weather models. 

Thanks jules for putting a more in depth view into this.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
9 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Very hard to believe in charts after 120 hrs at present,obviously an uncertain time for forecasting ahead.

Lets hope for some improvements in the range up to ten days,although must be very difficult due

to proximity of U.K.

Sadly, when the models agree on a non-wintry pattern then they are generally right, it is only when they are fighting over height rises, where they are notorious for garden path walking, that there is uncertainty.

At the moment we have little forcing to the NH; static Pacific, Azores and Russian Highs that bounce around and a recipe for nothing wintry apart from cold rain from a tepid NW flow. So, you are likely to see consistent variations on a theme in FI, as the details are worked out for the upcoming unsettled UK outlook:

06z>>gfsnh-0-306.thumb.png.29aca0bb6c49a0c06dc272bbdca65906.png 0z>>gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.a4993410d1ac11a17713bf4b1be2cc57.png

Rare of late to see two GFS runs that are synoptic-wise similar, so higher than usual confidence in the next week or two?

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