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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

The CFS charts show a winter wonderland 

Latest ones show a warm December - haven't checked the others today.

image.thumb.png.29d0ba9e22064dfa9cde3b49f15aac8c.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Latest ones show a warm December - haven't checked the others today.

image.thumb.png.29d0ba9e22064dfa9cde3b49f15aac8c.png

Today’s run looks like a decent set up in December for coldies but as others have said, govt policy on covid is more predictable - and reliable than CFS ...

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Not much to be said about this for Xmas week. No better really early in the month. EC46 is not getting any tinsel from me right now.... 

image.thumb.png.d832825142d1739d7261b09c499a975a.png

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Not much to be said about this for Xmas week. No better really early in the month. EC46 is not getting any tinsel from me right now.... image.thumb.png.d832825142d1739d7261b09c499a975a.png

Looks strangely like a Terry's chocolate orange after being squashed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

That must be the most neg tilted low that i have ever seen.

gfseu-0-168.thumb.png.74e752dae63b3eae1ae19f0d0a8d4f83.png

l

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I really don't know what is going to happen here but at 204 we have another neg tilted low,the residual heights over the Iceland area is proving difficult for the gfs...but i like the drama. 

gfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.9ee4aa52313a0bc88772f8a9262a2bd2.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
Typo
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
18 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That must be the most neg tilted low that i have ever seen.

gfseu-0-168.thumb.png.74e752dae63b3eae1ae19f0d0a8d4f83.png

l

There’s been a growing change towards this last 2/3 days.  Very nice to see and injects cold interest in outlook again.  Will this flip again an 2/3 days.....at this stage I’ll just say I’m liking what I’m seeing...let it remain and progress.  This type of  Atlantic I like with pM at least in charge....and will do me.  On the flip if we get HP with cold frosty nights and fog...I like that too.  
Let’s see where we are come Monday....ECM or GFS route?

 BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

There’s been a growing change towards this last 2/3 days.  Very nice to see and injects cold interest in outlook again.  Will this flip again an 2/3 days.....at this stage I’ll just say I’m liking what I’m seeing...let it remain and progress

 BFTP

Yes me too BFTP

but i stand by the fence only to sit on it ATM, there is so much volidity in the models right now that i cannot take credence.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Very wet UK, LP not getting much past the meridian, negatively tilted lows...hmmm...seen this set up before preceding quite a memorable winter in recent times

image.thumb.png.e18251482cdbf96d0d7a9fe41a86e605.png

Personally think people are being far too downbeat for prospects over the next few weeks.

similar synoptic charts where showing the same a few days ago though Crew

i do understand that the jet is digging more SE and there is residual heights to our north/northeast but the ECM doesn't show this

my money is on getting this trough  pushed through and maybe a La nina print should hopefully amplify the jet in the Atlantic,seem this in some of the gefs ens and hopefully the way forward to leading a cold snap/spell as we go through mid December.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes me too BFTP

but i stand by the fence only to sit on it ATM, there is so much volidity in the models right now that i cannot take credence.

Agreed, I have my early thoughts re front loaded hit....but I haven’t been impressed with Nov thus far. This current change...if it holds and comes to fruition will definitely put a glint in my eye

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

The stand off between ECM and GFS continues in medium term, but again way out in la la land GFS shows an anticyclonic picture. The 18z is showing a cold cyclonic spell through end of the month with low pressure dropping through the UK, it doesnt often do this, so perhaps an indication we are on the cusp of a major pattern change. Probably be all gone in next runs and it barrels the low pressure through, however, if we start to see such scenario in 120hr range then interest will be raised.

I'm sending a change to anticyclonic will develop eventually just not sure how and when exactly, but probably before December beckons.

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Very wet UK, LP not getting much past the meridian, negatively tilted lows...hmmm...seen this set up before preceding quite a memorable winter in recent times

image.thumb.png.e18251482cdbf96d0d7a9fe41a86e605.png

Personally think people are being far too downbeat for prospects over the next few weeks.

Let's get the blues in first let them hang around for a while.... More upgrades and Booom. I really think we are on to a winner this year and as early as December. Don't shoot the messanger we are all in this together

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Very wet UK, LP not getting much past the meridian, negatively tilted lows...hmmm...seen this set up before preceding quite a memorable winter in recent times

image.thumb.png.e18251482cdbf96d0d7a9fe41a86e605.png

Personally think people are being far too downbeat for prospects over the next few weeks.

Yes it's notable how cold periods are so often preceded by very wet periods as the jet dives south and send LPs in less conventional directions. Interesting times ahead. I won't mention the 'P' word...

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
4 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

The CFS is about as useful as a chocolate fireguard. If you get your kicks looking at make believe snow charts in 3 months time, then it is the perfect model. Personally, I like something a little more reliable which is usually within 72 hours and even then with snow it can still be open to change. 

Its one model worth keeping an eye on. Its trends have been quite accurate in recent months. This was the model that predicted a terrible winter last year with run after run being dominated by Atlantic low pressure.It also favoured a cool June/July this year with run after run trending towards cool unseasonable 850s, despite being told persistently to ignore it. 

 

Edited by 38.7°C
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Morning. Oz gfs still playing with heights svalbard towards Iceland esp in fi. Looking at things Broad scale it may not take a lot of tweaking to get the jet better aligned and moving quicker south east towards sse Europe. Fine lines it would seem esp looking at the semi permanent high to Eastern Europe. Interesting I'd suggest going into December hopefully

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Day 7-8. Not the same but better agreement between gfs and ecm. Both edged towards each other. Ecm moving more towards gfs to be fair which makes the later output by ecm look much different to previous runs. The different output put isn’t that pretty to look at.

67C20DDD-2E54-4445-B1A0-BEA6FBEC3138.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Day 7-8. Not the same but better agreement between gfs and ecm. Both edged towards each other. Ecm moving more towards gfs to be fair which makes the later output by ecm look much different to previous runs.

Said it yesterday didnt i !!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
15 minutes ago, Griff said:

Oh dear all starting to look very familiar this morning... 

image.thumb.png.1a0160ab39208eabc1fa24cf84831b27.png

Certainly is @Griff. ECM has done away with the two op runs of yesterday, and looks much more like the GFS this morning. That NH profile at day 10 is just dreadful for any UK cold. Latest ECM monthly below has a very similar look. Low polar heights, strong +NAO.

image.thumb.png.5a9ed303a9dcc6cf2153cbf742e7f2e3.pngimage.thumb.png.cc539f963e003705aff745140129d0e8.pngimage.thumb.png.0163ebb1f58aed466888ae3cb261f693.png

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Yup. All this talk of favourable macro climate help this Winter proving all for naught.

That ECM run is a horror show. Rampant Greenland PV and flat powerful Atlantic jet as bad as it could be.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

I am questioning the usefulness of seasonal models which showed much higher probability of blocking in the Atlantic in Nov/Dec, reality being any blocking hope so far came from EC/GFS charts post 192h and in Scandi not Atlantic. Going forward only looks worse. 

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