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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

ICON first out and it looks fine and settled towards 180 hrs with fog and frost a possibility but with some subtle differences with regards to this trough i have circled in black at 168

12z 168 v's 00z 180

iconnh-0-168.thumb.png.91bde4a85acc768005458831f964093e.pngiconnh-0-180.thumb.png.45021472607d457ea4f5ba4f3d42a432.png

12z at 180 ,you can see that trough out of Newfoundland,this is key to get amplification ahead of it so something to watch on subsequent runs.

692206_iconnh-0-180(1).thumb.png.08d9e2c66ec75adebddd981e22f12b06.png

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs doesn't look as amplified as the ICON and UKMO in my view

144hrs.

iconnh-0-144.thumb.png.44c05c8509dbd5be24984928c224f91e.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.763b831b9fb1b171987db3197b4e31c9.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.d1e4f96c02f42c1f24b1abf526759cc4.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A big change in the GFS.

The low to the west detaches from the PV so will lose its energy supply and start to fill and slide .

This against the UKMO which doesn’t do that and will just barrel a pile of energy eastwards by day 7.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

This would follow the METO long range, HP established for a while with the PV slowly heading East, eventually letting heights develop in the North Atlantic , poss up into Greenland, then unleashing some arctic Air by 06-10 Dec time!!!

I mean, the ICON is always spot on at this range!!

4C5D19DD-D7D7-4CC4-954D-370593D0DF72.jpeg

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Fwiw. I think gfs will be on its own.  Icon ukmo 12z and ecm this morning have/had the high to the sw being propped up. Gfs doesn’t and this allows the low to track from the nw to se. 

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Looking at the GFS as it's coming out, still disagrees with ECM  

Differences in a week's time... 

1561863473_gfsnh-0-168(2).thumb.png.1122598fa9c8507e38ff5be774f2dea4.png172575436_ECH1-168(1).thumb.gif.5ebc805efdb23b4bd69d42bf8c6a6295.gif

Yes the difference is quite stark to say the least,which one will be cannon fodder....

both of them at that range

the differences lie on that trough coming out off the ESB(eastern seaboard) at 120,the ECM has this more amplified hence a stronger ridge ahead of it creating wider separation of the two lows.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

If you ask me I see a very poor pattern setting up in Europe with almost unmovable high preasure setting up from SE to western Russia trough central Europe and eastern Scandi perhaps.That is ultimate winter killer 99% of time.This is present on UKMO,GEM and GFS only ICON somewhat acceptable going forward

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3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

If you ask me I see a very poor pattern setting up in Europe with almost unmovable high preasure setting up from SE to western Russia trough central Europe and eastern Scandi perhaps.That is ultimate winter killer 99% of time.This is present on UKMO,GEM and GFS only ICON somewhat acceptable going forward

I don’t agree, we will have heavy snow in a few weeks! I can’t wait 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
8 minutes ago, jules216 said:

If you ask me I see a very poor pattern setting up in Europe with almost unmovable high preasure setting up from SE to western Russia trough central Europe and eastern Scandi perhaps.That is ultimate winter killer 99% of time.This is present on UKMO,GEM and GFS only ICON somewhat acceptable going forward

Quite right Jules

we need more amplification from the ridge to get lower heights into Europe,what more can we ask for,still the models cannot settle their differences at 120 so i would worry just yet.

Edited by Allseasons-si
Typo
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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Although big difference from gfs and ecm,the most important pattern change that

both show,is low pressure to the south of U.K. This replacing high pressure that has 

dominated, the south of the U.K. for a very long time . Either from the southwest,south,or southeast

In my opinion the biggest influence in regards to colder weather.That being  the case you can 

take your choice from gfs low pressure all the way,or ecm and the met office,high pressure 

all the way.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 12Z at T+384... it would at least be better than endless wind and rain:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM following the 00z and dropping a low down into Iberia with high pressure building over the top. Model stand off!

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM following the 00z and dropping a low down into Iberia with high pressure building over the top. Model stand off!

Yes indeed! 

ECH1-192 (1).gif

gfsnh-0-192 (3).png

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

I think we gona see some stunning charts  by tomorrow evening 12z!!its gona be somewhere inbetween the gfs and ecm and we gona get some more robust blocking around norway/iceland but also the disrupting lows from the gfs!!!!think the models are trying to get there!!!just injecting a bit of positivity!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC I dont mind, hopefully some quiter weather more suitable for outdoor walks etc....

Nice to see some troughing dropping into mainland Europe, assist booting the core PV East into Scandy !

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
4 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

Which one of these is colder

They are both fairly similar actually. Ranging from freezing or just above in Scotland, gradually moving up to 9/10c in the south of England. Different weather types though! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC I dont mind, hopefully some quiter weather more suitable for outdoor walks etc....

Nice to see some troughing dropping into mainland Europe, assist booting the core PV East into Scandy !

 

6 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

Which one of these is colder

Not really about temp. More about pleasant days, with fog and frost or wind and rain as northwestsnow says. Ecm is a good fit with met also. Icon and ukmo also on a similar page. 

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