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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Who? Never heard of them?

Interesting period of model watching, all a bit conflicting, worth watching! 

Best to put your hands over your  during times like this until wee come out the other side better for your health.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Ext ecm debilt ensembles not as encouraging as yesterday's. Uptick in the mean temps and rainfall towards the end. Looks to me like the ecm ens are advertising a sinking Sceuro high. Not ideal for coldies heading into December. For this reason, I am hoping against hope that the gfs ens have a better grip on things. 

Screenshot_20201119-083223.png

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.7a12ffc3dea4002cc7391f1ec27c915f.pngimage.thumb.png.81554847250321aad5ede58c5b1dcd6e.png

ECM top end this morning, but not a total outlier either. GFS at the same time-frame has no real interest in a settled outlook.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
31 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ext ecm debilt ensembles not as encouraging as yesterday's. Uptick in the mean temps and rainfall towards the end. Looks to me like the ecm ens are advertising a sinking Sceuro high. Not ideal for coldies heading into December. For this reason, I am hoping against hope that the gfs ens have a better grip on things. 

Screenshot_20201119-083223.png

Plenty of time for a change of direction....

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

One GFS ensemble is having a laugh in the extended, an absolutely frigid west to northwesterly, one of the coldest  ever to hit the UK from that direction, a kind of return Arctic maritime flow

GFSP23EU99_462_2.png

 

Followed by a mild easterly at the 850hpa levels at least

GFSP23EU99_534_2.png

*BANK*

See you back on here on the 7th! :cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

I must admit its only just passed middle of November but I have rarely seen such model uncertainty around 168-216hrs. Lets go back few day ago where there once existed model consensus of a wave breaking event around this coming Sunday which was meant to drop a Sceuro trough down. We know that EC pulled out first for the others to follow,now we can reliably say it was a good call. GFS adjusted last and since then it shows a very cyclonic outllook to western Europe - GEM and ICON kind of half agree. Meanwhile the party pooper EC showed very poor runs for a while for it to suddenly change to a Scandi block last night and this morning which has hardly any support yet. It has a support from its control run and for sure reasonable cluster members, but but its 46d version didnt support this at all on Monday, so what is happening,its not even December? How are we meant to last the whole winter with these swings and roundabouts?  The EC mean T2m is back showing ice days between day 10 and 15 for my location.

Popradski.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Big differences between gfs and ecm this morning,to be honest the charts have struggled 

to get any form of accuracy after 144hrs /168hrs. Let’s hope the met office is correct with

a cold beginning to December,and high pressure to be a big influence in the first half especially 

to central and south eastern U.K. That to me points to a east to south east wind direction,

ie high pressure to the east / northeast.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

06z GFS op still not buying the trough disruption to the W and SW over the Atlantic the Euro models are keen on ...

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The extended eps clusters are trending to that ne Canadian high anomoly I mentioned yesterday 

WB negative NAO? Hope not.Its the best case scenario to drain away most of residual cold preciously built in Europe via trough west of Ireland.Hopefully that wont be the case

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
27 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Big differences between gfs and ecm this morning,to be honest the charts have struggled 

to get any form of accuracy after 144hrs /168hrs. Let’s hope the met office is correct with

a cold beginning to December,and high pressure to be a big influence in the first half especially 

to central and south eastern U.K. That to me points to a east to south east wind direction,

ie high pressure to the east / northeast.

 

 

You don't have to press enter for a new line - your posts always look like poems

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
18 hours ago, Anthony Burden said:

 

6z gfs develops a better profile and Heighths towards the svalbard area. Nothing major but could shake things up later

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Posted
  • Location: Derry 106m asl
  • Location: Derry 106m asl
2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

You don't have to press enter for a new line - your posts always look like poems

Ah yes a new model thread whereby discussion can only take place in Hiku is as overdue as a good cold snap 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
21 minutes ago, jules216 said:

WB negative NAO? Hope not.Its the best case scenario to drain away most of residual cold preciously built in Europe via trough west of Ireland.Hopefully that wont be the case

Yes

Always seems to blow up a trough.

And the Atlantic blasts through

Thus blasting away any chance of cold

Does the West based setup

Even in 2018 when we had extreme cold already in place

it still blasted it out the way very quickly.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, that was two-hours I'll nae ever get back... One day of snaw, followed by 15 days of snore!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Och well... it's back to watching the grass!

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
1 hour ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS op still not buying the trough disruption to the W and SW over the Atlantic the Euro models are keen on ...

This reflected in the day 10 mean charts Nick and the 2m temp/rainfall ens.graphs.

gensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.98f9cb6ffc1c3b0b15111e2743f16e35.pngEDH1-240.thumb.gif.0eb7ee8dc154e128b7988e3a9db7881a.gif

 

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.0bce1e44a66a0df7f4c72da2aec4e0ec.gifensemble-rrrcum-london.thumb.gif.ae8a022c10c64e6f40a0f04c1cc24f73.gif

 

Gefs looking more unsettled as the jet and Atlantic lows head across the UK.ECM looks much drier under the influence of a building Scandi.ridge.Not overly cold on either but a notable drop in temperatures towards normality as head into December on both.

The way any potential split in the jet occurs to our west around day  7 seems a key development , as you alluded to, if we are to see a change to our current Atlantic driven weather.

Edited by phil nw.
corrected images
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
4 hours ago, That ECM said:

Or 1/2 way house? Which is a strong possibility imo 

 

It is indeed as it is often the case. A halfway house would potentially look something like this ens.member. Some ridging in to Scandi but with too much low pressure to the west. Not ideal by any means. Almost no GFS ensemble member show anything that would resemble met office 16-31 day forecast of settled foggy/frosty weather towards the end of the month. Its either that GFS is overblowing the Atlantic lows too much or UKMO will adjust the wording and mention unsettled for most,not just NW as there is no way these GFS ops show any frost and fog for southern UK,let alone them talking about settled frosty weather to spread to most of UK. 

gens-7-1-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

It is indeed as it is often the case. A halfway house would potentially look something like this ens.member. Some ridging in to Scandi but with too much low pressure to the west. Not ideal by any means. Almost no GFS ensemble member show anything that would resemble met office 16-31 day forecast of settled foggy/frosty weather towards the end of the month. Its either that GFS is overblowing the Atlantic lows too much or UKMO will adjust the wording and mention unsettled for most,not just NW as there is no way these GFS ops show any frost and fog for southern UK,let alone them talking about settled frosty weather to spread to most of UK. 

gens-7-1-240.png

Only need the high to nudge a little further north and the met office wording would be a good call.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

You don't have to press enter for a new line - your posts always look like poems

Not all people have wide screens Paul,he he

anyway pert 26 looks dead like the run up to the cold spell of Nov/Dec 2010 with a similar synoptic pattern where heights start to build in the N  Atlantic and into Greenland by the retrogression west of the Scandi high...(check my post last night)

anim_gvc4.thumb.gif.83dc90b82b5d92129bf1ffd5778e2cdb.gifanim_hea4.thumb.gif.c95e3c034ae900054a51c06cf6d38b5e.gif

obviously this is just one ens and one run but you never know what is going to happen in a couple of weeks from now.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Just looking at the De-built ens over in central Holland from ecm and you can see some of the ens starting to show some cooler/colder options in the extended

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.02f72a4dccb62cd45b92feceaf6449c5.png

as with the dew points too,remember anything from sub 0c or lower with a continental dry flow would be sufficient for snow 

eps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.d6e825b899a81c45ba2b8f99faea78bc.png

a look at the wind direction and as you can see by the dark red circle,some of the ens show a N/NW'ly flow around the 26th Nov backing NE/E(black circle)

eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.732af6aa650d597ae90efff8ff31617b.png

obviously this is just an observation at the moment but i will be keeping an eye on this to see if a signal grows stronger in the next few days.

WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL

Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange...

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

T144 gfs and ukmo. Similar profile to be fair.

A907E187-043D-4F46-88D0-180103E48032.png

DD696522-FB0B-42C6-A402-6E20D7C1FE78.png

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