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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
3 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

Firstly folks... What you won't get from me ever is a downbeat summary on the forthcoming conditions, even if those conditions suck!! It is what it is... Secondly I would like to congratulate DiagonalRedLine for posting the world's longest ever post the other day.... Wow mate, you must have one hell of a great personal assistant.. Only kidding, that was a fab and insightful post... 

All the best folks ☀️

Hi Matt, just seen this. Was kinda feeling down that day, which made me feel tempted to do that massive post. Longest ever? Maybe Though I suspect there’s been one or two that have been even longer... somewhere  

Agree with what you said though. Outlook not great for any serious cold (but not to disregard that some could turn up at some point). Some cooler Polar Maritime flows behind Lows and such, certainly look possible at times in the Westerly dominated setup in the the outlook. And perhaps attempts for High Pressure to at least ridge over to the UK offering drier periods. 

Must admit, for the cold weather fans, the 12Z ECMWF seemed interesting tonight with reasonable amplification to the Atlantic ridging. Whether it will lead to something that’s favourable for cold and wintry weather I guess we’ll find out on future runs. Worth continuing to monitor what the mean and ensembles charts do as well. 

But speaking of ensembles, that GEM ensemble mean at 340 hours that uncertainy posted above/previous page is pretty decent. Suggestive of Atlantic ridging and a Scandinavian trough. Likeky a chance for something more colder and potent to develop from the North-West or North through the UK. Something more I imagine than a standard Polar Maritime flow. Whoever, though, keeps using the blu tac to ensure these charts stay stuck in FI needs to stop it. Especially if it’s our super strong tac from the Netweather office. 

Sometimes, when there are charts with strong heights to the South of the UK and a mischievous Vortex to our North-West and North, I just want to fly high into the sky with a flame thrower to warm up both the Stratosphere and Troposphere. A monster High would then have no choice but to blow up to our North 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Typos
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Back to some interesting output this morning. Gone is the rampant zonality and SW-NE flow. Not quite cold nirvana but it's an improvement. 

GFS brings the jet on a more NW-SE alignment and, if you look carefully, LP is disrupting over the UK owing to weak heights to the N around the middle of the run.

UKMO shows some Atlantic amplification at day 6.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Back to some interesting output this morning. Gone is the rampant zonality and SW-NE flow. Not quite cold nirvana but it's an improvement. 

GFS brings the jet on a more NW-SE alignment and, if you look carefully, LP is disrupting over the UK owing to weak heights to the N around the middle of the run.

UKMO shows some Atlantic amplification at day 6.

Lets hope the ECM follows suit. One to watch. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

ECMWF looking less amplified, compared to previous run, if anything but didn't someone wish for the heights in Europe to be removed?  

ECH1-168.gif

 

GFS for comparison... 

609701275_gfsnh-0-168(1).thumb.png.d250e548eaeb9688083510a037f66603.png

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

Remember the beginning of the week anyone, where this was declared as being without support!  

373702806_ECH1-240(3).thumb.gif.c796710b3936f5bb7f6182001f5445ac.gif

14794232_ECH0-240(1).thumb.gif.1137cdcab2dac46138ca892aa3036776.gif

Not sure what to make of it, more coffee needed! I mean runs... 

 

Previously 1117222530_ECH1-240(2).thumb.gif.b42c2872e54ba000e7362ed73fe6da48.gif

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

GFS at 240 you couldn't make it up... 

gfsnh-0-240 (4).png

 

Conclusion, models perhaps having an identity crisis... And FI is a lot sooner than I thought! 

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS at 240 you couldn't make it up... 

gfsnh-0-240 (4).png

 

Conclusion, models perhaps having an identity crisis... And FI is a lot sooner than I thought! 

Yep, GFS and ECM head off in different directions. But at least they are interesting directions.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, DavidS said:

Yep, GFS and ECM head off in different directions. But at least they are interesting directions.

Cue "both with be outliers and best check the anomaly charts"

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM is the best of the bunch this morning. Key period is the middle to latter half of next week, where it develops a cut off low to the west of Iberia, which allows high pressure to build over the top. This doesn't happen on the GFS or GEM, and we're left with Atlantic dominated weather instead.

image.thumb.png.779c2ececec379477d6fbbde2ab95dba.pngimage.thumb.png.792b2a32ac9e2d5bb1ac16beb2f5e7c1.pngimage.thumb.png.95dc9ba1a64457883c357e3d50f069b4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
48 minutes ago, Griff said:

Remember the beginning of the week anyone, where this was declared as being without support!  

373702806_ECH1-240(3).thumb.gif.c796710b3936f5bb7f6182001f5445ac.gif

14794232_ECH0-240(1).thumb.gif.1137cdcab2dac46138ca892aa3036776.gif

Not sure what to make of it, more coffee needed! I mean runs... 

 

Previously 1117222530_ECH1-240(2).thumb.gif.b42c2872e54ba000e7362ed73fe6da48.gif

No?‍♂️ it does have support it's called the metoffice.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

One GFS ensemble is having a laugh in the extended, an absolutely frigid west to northwesterly, one of the coldest  ever to hit the UK from that direction, a kind of return Arctic maritime flow

GFSP23EU99_462_2.png

 

Followed by a mild easterly at the 850hpa levels at least

GFSP23EU99_534_2.png

Yes. Spat brew everywhere when saw the GFS. Improbable altitude snowfest!

Too early but it’s a start. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Gefs and geps both extend the mean long wave Atlantic trough into Iberia later week 2 - ecm rebuilds euro heights to our south within a more mobile picture although the end of the run indicates the heights over France and Spain becoming neutral 

clusters will reveal if eps have any appetite for the other ens solution ......

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Looking at EC ansamble mean there must be many members supporting OP Scandi high solution. Roles have changed sudddenly EC vs GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs and geps both extend the mean long wave Atlantic trough into Iberia later week 2 - ecm rebuilds euro heights to our south 

clusters will reveal if eps have any appetite for the other ens solution ......

Ec Control very similar to op at 240hr then builds big scandi block in extended.

Screenshot_20201119-075525_Chrome.jpg

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
19 minutes ago, booferking said:

No?‍♂️ it does have support it's called the metoffice.

Who? Never heard of them?

Interesting period of model watching, all a bit conflicting, worth watching! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
8 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Looking at EC ansamble mean there must be many members supporting OP Scandi high solution. Roles have changed sudddenly EC vs GFS

Or 1/2 way house? Which is a strong possibility imo 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

One GFS ensemble is having a laugh in the extended, an absolutely frigid west to northwesterly, one of the coldest  ever to hit the UK from that direction, a kind of return Arctic maritime flow

GFSP23EU99_462_2.png

 

Followed by a mild easterly at the 850hpa levels at least

GFSP23EU99_534_2.png

Top one WH, is snow machine for Stockport area, feet maybe

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