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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Ukmo t144. Possible interest for those in the far north. 

567CB8BC-0DE4-4038-B572-A5430314D550.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Nice to see the 'building blocks' in place, by T+72!

Just don’t neglect the cement between now and the 18Z 

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Met office sticking to its guns,in regards to high pressure being the dominant feature 

at end of month over most of U.K. with the northwest being perhaps the exception.

exact positioning still up for grabs,possibly over U.K. or to the east.

Fog and frost becoming more likely at end of the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo t144. Possible interest for those in the far north. 

567CB8BC-0DE4-4038-B572-A5430314D550.png

In isolation that actually looks promising with appearance of Atlantic high ridging into a gap over Greenland and no raging vortex.. on these occasions I curse the longer range models which on this occasion appear to flatten the lot.

Too much info bring back ignorant bliss I say

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

After the disappointment of the last model tease with blocking to the east ne imploding slightly more encouraging is the trend now to add more amplification upstream .

Showing up now within the day 6 timeframe .

In the medium term is what happens after the low to west clears east . What does the next low do in terms of track .

Se and it could open up a gap to the ne to develop a lobe of high pressure , also in terms of depth, will it be a bowling ball low or will it fill more quickly allowing more of a slider type low .

So something to look out for in the next few runs .

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

GFS - First of all lets drain all the precious cold air away from Europe with the cut of low west of Ireland, when that is achieved why don't for once allow the low heights to progress trough to the continent where upper are around +5 so what we all get is a lot of rain. 

Edited by Mapantz
Swearing unnecessary
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
59 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Met office sticking to its guns,in regards to high pressure being the dominant feature 

at end of month over most of U.K. with the northwest being perhaps the exception.

exact positioning still up for grabs,possibly over U.K. or to the east.

Fog and frost becoming more likely at end of the month.

Let’s hope they are seeing something we aren’t. None of the output I’m viewing shows anything like high pressure dominating in 12 days time.

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngICON 12 z @ t144

spacer.pngUKMO 12 z @ t144

spacer.pngGFS 12z @ t144

ICON , UKMO and GFS 12 z so far showing fairly similar things at day 6 with the emergence of Atlantic high pressure. 

Will be interesting to see ECM 12 z later to see whether this is also modelled .

Could it ridge up towards Greenland  ( Met O 6-30 day outlook hints that it might ) ?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
6 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

spacer.pngICON 12 z @ t144

spacer.pngUKMO 12 z @ t144

spacer.pngGFS 12z @ t144

ICON , UKMO and GFS 12 z so far showing fairly similar things at day 6 with the emergence of Atlantic high pressure. 

Will be interesting to see ECM 12 z later to see whether this is also modelled .

Could it ridge up towards Greenland  ( Met O 6-30 day outlook hints that it might ) ?

 

looks likely to get blown away according to all the modes sadly for people who crave cold weather from north or east 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Ref the UKMO. Decent chart on the face of it but the ridging, which is better than the GFS Op, and virtually all of the ens will most likely topple as the next system piles in.

UKMO

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.b9b3f8a63513ca3b7ee5247c45ecddc7.png

Compared to GFS Op

GFSOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.9a4bd289fe6f2354845f6715e1ad584f.png

 

Whilst there seems to currently be very little appetite for that system to disrupt, P03 does show the system downstream (the one just to the NE of Iceland) disrupting, creating a cutoff low, and bringing about a far more favourable outcome...

 

I'm not saying this is more likely (It is currently not), just something to look out for (or cling on to? ) in the coming few days of chart outputs.

GFSP03EU12_144_1.thumb.png.da3786889d1460745021d9c8eab14e6e.pngGFSP03EU12_156_1.thumb.png.a1eb972df83b7550bb97756d916d9bf5.pngGFSP03EU12_180_1.thumb.png.3a96388b312e682269ac8ec9a73731bc.png

 

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Let’s hope they are seeing something we aren’t. None of the output I’m viewing shows anything like high pressure dominating in 12 days time.

A few weeks ago we all thought a cold easterly would be hereby now, that’s what the models were telling us ( hence the CET comp ) but the Met O wasn’t having none of it and stuck to there guns and so far they’ve got it more or less spot on, so atm they are the only ones I have confidence in, especially the way the models have been of late

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

A few weeks ago we all thought a cold easterly would be hereby now, that’s what the models were telling us ( hence the CET comp ) but the Met O wasn’t having none of it and stuck to there guns and so far they’ve got it more or less spot on, so atm they are the only ones I have confidence in, especially the way the models have been of late

Not all of us, Dancer... not that my guess of 8C will be any good!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Very downbeat assessment from Steve.

Of course that is a concern as he is absolutely a glass half full person..

Until we see strat coupling with trop im a little more optimistic at this juncture.

Let's see where we are regarding NWP in a few weeks time...

Have to say November is turning into an absolute horror show locally, really want a break from this incessant rain now...

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very downbeat assessment from Steve.

Of course that is a concern as he is absolutely a glass half full person..

Until we see strat coupling with trop im a little more optimistic at this juncture.

Let's see where we are regarding NWP in a few weeks time...

Have to say November is turning into an absolute horror show locally, really want a break from this incessant rain now...

To be honest, having been an avid model watcher for over 15 years now and being very used to models imploding on a cold outlook, even i am very surprised by their poor handling of the high which was surposed to be building and ridging north about this time. Hopefuly the Met have this going forewards into December, im not even obsessed by deep cold at this time, but a change in constant gloom, wind and drizzle will make a stark improvement in mine and others general mood in these rather depressing times. Some signs the south will improve somewhat as lows take up their more usual position to the north west of the UK, hopefully we can get a countrywide ridge out of this shortly. 

Get the high and the cold will follow   

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 hours ago, Anthony Burden said:

Met office sticking to its guns,in regards to high pressure being the dominant feature 

at end of month over most of U.K. with the northwest being perhaps the exception.

exact positioning still up for grabs,possibly over U.K. or to the east.

Fog and frost becoming more likely at end of the month.

Isn't that forecast on the autumn thread

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
24 minutes ago, KTtom said:

To be honest, having been an avid model watcher for over 15 years now and being very used to models imploding on a cold outlook, even i am very surprised by their poor handling of the high which was surposed to be building and ridging north about this time. Hopefuly the Met have this going forewards into December, im not even obsessed by deep cold at this time, but a change in constant gloom, wind and drizzle will make a stark improvement in mine and others general mood in these rather depressing times. Some signs the south will improve somewhat as lows take up their more usual position to the north west of the UK, hopefully we can get a countrywide ridge out of this shortly. 

Get the high and the cold will follow   

The METOs outlook for December is actually very good for coldies, getting more wintery as we head mid month. Subject to change obviously but with GFS FI only just hitting December there’s lots to play for heading into Winter. A nice dry cold HP will be appreciated to start with.

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

ECM at 192...

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.50994d3b029b81084b7eabd11afcb519.gif

here we go again @ modelled high pressure #3,726...of the season.

day ten could be interesting,now where have i heard that before

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

@ 216

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.27d21184c2c45d3397accb5362f7b37b.gif

@trough...disrupt you git

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
59 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very downbeat assessment from Steve.

Of course that is a concern as he is absolutely a glass half full person..

Until we see strat coupling with trop im a little more optimistic at this juncture.

Let's see where we are regarding NWP in a few weeks time...

Have to say November is turning into an absolute horror show locally, really want a break from this incessant rain now...

I think Steve is employing the old 'reverse psychology' trick   

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
19 hours ago, Tony47 said:

 

Reliable timeframe, 120hrs more if the same, longer term more of the same output indications of greater amplification, let's see if it verifies.

Would like a dry spell of weather and some welcome sunshine just to brighten up what is increasingly becoming for all reasons an ever gloomy mood, which I feel quite naturally is increasing levels of despondency. 

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