Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We have rapidly lost the Atlantic amplification and WAA which drove the sceuro heights for week 2 

would usually be fairly relaxed about changes like this but given that we have seen two ec ops with this solution, the inclination is to give it a fair amount of credence 

the extended eps clusters offered quite a split solution late week 2 so still some way to go to know how the month might end 

While i can't pin down exactly how it will end, I think to be honest i can have a pretty educated guess how it wont end - significantly below average temperatures and wintry precipitation.

[swfc]

Looking at the swings on the models over the last few days I'd be inclined to agree with blue army and his observation. There seems to be a fair mix of options so maybe all is not lost in regard to some substantial riding going forward

[SLEETY]

Nothing interesting regarding cold for at least the next 1o days now.Another fail from the models.Be surprised if anything remotely cold appears with below average temps for a prolonged period for longer than that.

[swfc]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Nothing interesting regarding cold for at least the next 1o days now.Another fail from the models.Be surprised if anything remotely cold appears with below average temps for a prolonged period for longer than that.

I'd agree the last few runs have backtracked. That said the fact that all models did pick up a blocking signal and ran with it shouldn't be totally discounted?? See how it pans out over the coming days just to note the gfs 12z looks like a bog standard late autumn run imo

Edited November 17, 2020 by swfc

[Methuselah]

My, that was gripping -- like watching Gone With The Wind!

    

[northwestsnow]

Good grief what happened to the British stiff upper lip ???

Its mid November people, let's not get too downbeat when we are still in Autumn ...

I'm hopeful things will look much healthier in a weeks time on the NWP..

Eqbo in the lower strat should prevent those horrible westerlies penetrate  the Trop.  

We certainly need to see no coupling of Strat and trop, the vortex looks strong again at the moment.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Maybe there are signs of a cool down right at the end of the gfs run or is the trop pv monkeying about with us

awaits the control/ens.

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Faronstream]

GFS 12Z looks like cold zonal to me, 850 uppers of -15 just south of iceland is not bad for this time of year.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

The problem with PM shots in recent years is uppers of -8 invariably are not enough even at 200m asl in the west  Pennine foothills due to the warming seas...

Snow line locally from North Westerlies tends to be 250m asl and above with uppers of -8, broadly speaking.

Easterlies please !!

In a slacker flow we've had snow falling here with uppers of -5 from an Irish Sea streamer...55m asl

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In a slacker flow we've had snow falling here with uppers of -5 from an Irish Sea streamer...55m asl

But how often has that actually amounted to anything with likely daytime temps of 4c??

[Mr Frost]

55 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Nothing interesting regarding cold for at least the next 1o days now.

Keep the faith mate! Always a wee risk of some wintry showers down South over high ground on Thursday. (AM especially)

Depends how far South these showers push and if this chart will actually become reality! 

Thursday 09:00

 

Wee bit of green there on the above chart for high ground of Wales and North York Moors - the cold upper 850HPA temps also make it pretty far South during the afternoon.

 

You never know - could be some wintry cloudscapes/hail/thunder wherever these showers turn up on low ground in the North, South, East or West. 

Risk of frost on Thursday night/Friday morning also.

Best we can hope for at the moment and it is still Autumn. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Allseasons-Si]

Well there is still quite a few gefs ens disrupting the trough near or west of the UK by day ten> including the control

here is a select few

then check out Pert 19

so maybe not a done deal on blowing the block away

more runs needed...

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[swfc]

22 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

My, that was gripping -- like watching Gone With The Wind!

    

Yes GC you could say its a bit analanyway all subject to change has they say 

[Jason M]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In a slacker flow we've had snow falling here with uppers of -5 from an Irish Sea streamer...55m asl

Also depends on other factors. Longevity of cold shot is also key as under a -8C 850 airmass snow level would fall with time as warmer layers get mixed out. Problem with PM shots is that they rarely last more than 24-36 hours as next set of fronts usually barrel in from the west.  

[northwestsnow]

16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In a slacker flow we've had snow falling here with uppers of -5 from an Irish Sea streamer...55m asl

Its possible mate.

But I've been left wet not white with uppers of -8 before now...at 200m...

Edited November 17, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Cheshire Freeze]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its possible mate.

But I've been left wet not white with uppers of -8 before now...at 200m...

Yep, bit of a lottery with PM flows

[northwestsnow]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Yep, bit of a lottery with PM flows

Partly why I obsess over Irish sea ssts every winter...

 

[Daniel*]

ECM 00z may have been disappointing with lack of blocking but at least looking more seasonal. Nights in double figures at this time of year are just wrong. Average min here in London, Docklands so far 7.3C (+1.5C) and max 13.5 (+2.2C) no saving this month from being very mild. Much of country has mean temps 3C above average - exceptional, greatest anomalies in SE/EA.

[Mapantz]

58 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Another fail from the models.

How so?

With respect, there hasn't been a failure at all. The models show possible outcomes and it's down to the individual to explore other model data, rather than relying on a single operational run each time.

[Tim Bland]

53 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

GFS 12Z looks like cold zonal to me, 850 uppers of -15 just south of iceland is not bad for this time of year.

Yes, it’s an awesome run...if you are just south of Iceland

[booferking]

1 hour ago, Arch Stanton said:

It's best to ignore charts like that that far out - they hardly ever come true. If Europe and Scandanavia stay mild then so do we - just like happened last winter.

 

1 hour ago, Arch Stanton said:

It's best to ignore charts like that that far out - they hardly ever come true. If Europe and Scandanavia stay mild then so do we - just like happened last winter.

I'll be ignoring nothing in the fi this is model thread discussion and if the signals are pointing towards charts like that in fi (ie) metoffice outlook la nina footprint then charts like this have merit by the way the chart posted is not exactly winter wonderland it's a cold zonality only wintry showers for the north hence metoffice outlook oh and there it appears again.

[damianslaw]

We are now seeing La Nina imprinting itself I think, or trying too, a more amplified pattern, evidence of this right now, long wave trough digging deep into Atlantic ridge building in behind.. but then a shortwave feature off the parent trough coming out of USA seaboard scuppers ability for the ridge to build sufficiently north, so we end up with a 24 hr polar blast. It looks a rinse and repeat over the weekend, signal again for ridge to build in and up from the south, this one may have better chance of holding off the Atlantic and I can see credence in a call for a more settled end to November, provided the next low rides up against the ridge on a SW-NE at a much more northerly latitude trajectory and not over on a more southerly path it as will happen on Friday. An eventual path to a colder outlook with polar shots would be able to take hold as the low pressure rides over at a much higher latitude and then into Scandi, the high stays in residence at a more northerly latitude. 

Reliable timeframe is 120 hrs tops. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by damianslaw

[BlueHedgehog074]

54 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

How so?

With respect, there hasn't been a failure at all. The models show possible outcomes and it's down to the individual to explore other model data, rather than relying on a single operational run each time.

Also, I think the models being a failure could been seen as a subjective aspect. What could be a failure for one person, might not be a failure to someone else. For example, the models failing with a cold spell won’t be seen as the same thing for someone who hates chilly weather. Edit: But does all come down to how we see things.

Edited November 17, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[mb018538]

33 minutes ago, booferking said:

 

I'll be ignoring nothing in the fi this is model thread discussion and if the signals are pointing towards charts like that in fi (ie) metoffice outlook la nina footprint then charts like this have merit by the way the chart posted is not exactly winter wonderland it's a cold zonality only wintry showers for the north hence metoffice outlook oh and there it appears again.

That chart is utterly hideous. Flat NH profile and strong vortex. No thanks! An underwhelming set of 12z runs again. We’re going to have to play the long game as usual folks.

[daz_4]

Not sure if I agree with people saying "it's only middle of November, plenty of winter left." In my experience, the next four weeks will set the tone of the winter. Winters very rarely deliver (at least in Central Europe) if there is no cold spell from middle of November to middle of December. And based on today's runs we can probably write off at least the next ten days. Not that I'm surprised. I very much doubt this winter will be different from the last seven or so.

Edited November 17, 2020 by daz_4