Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS 18z is a step towards ECM, advection not as vertical-

Compared to 12z-

Looks reasonable though 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Could barrel over the top like the ECM...  

GFS just about still holding its ground. I agree with Crewe just now.... A slight step in the wrong direction. I remain hopeful though. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Whist we all drool over fl charts(and me included) we should all come back down to earth until the signal if any is sustained,i said this last night,yes a trend is there for a block to our NE,granted...but i wish that i had so many hands that i could count on how many times Nivana charts show in fl that go puff in magic smoke like Pete's dragon nearer to t+0

the signal was strong back in 2010 on the gfs op/ens and i am not discounting what it is showing now and i would love to believe that it could be true but that winter was an extreme but short lived(boy what a pre-Christmas that was)

the synoptic charts show some similarities to that winter with the high retrogressing west then building in the Atlantic and into Greenland(La nina print),we could be on the cusp of a similar scenario and some of the ens show this

let's not forget that we are not in winter yet and we are in mid November so anything from a cold/snow perspective leading up to Christmas would be a bonus

we know that time flies like back to the future when we are wanting a bit of the white stuff before march comes knocking on the door but i will say this,nothing can beat last years piff,paff,puff and the dragon has gone.

a longish post,now i am going to check out the 18z

time is ticking for me to get my head down

que 18z.

 

 

[blizzard81]

Suddenly though by 216h the pv to the north west takes on a very familiar daunting look. 

[Griff]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS 18z is a step towards ECM, advection not as vertical-

Compared to 12z-

These runs will ebb and flow but the trend hasn't vanished (yet) 

[Mr Frost]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

It would seem Glosea is seeing PM incursions going by Exeters update...

I would agree with that - feeling quite positive about cold/snow chances for NW UK in December.  (I am sure we all feel like that about our own location - hopefully! )

Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies.

Weekly breakdown below:

30/11 to 06/12

 

07/12 to 13/12

14//12 to 20/12

 

21/12 to 27/12

 

As ever subject to change as we all know. 

Just caught up with the thread and you can sense that whiff of desperation in the search for any cold/wintry chart - fair enough though after the very poor Winter last year!

I just hope the members who are on a daily rollercoaster have some energy left come Meteorological Winter. 

All the best to you all.

Edited November 16, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Griff]

Usually this would be deemed encouraging, perhaps 12z too exciting for our own good? 

Edited November 16, 2020 by Griff

[Griff]

Come on Iceland don't be shy... 

[DavidS]

You have to give this 18z credit, it keeps trying

[Allseasons-Si]

If you want my opinion,the gfs post day ten is OK. 

[Griff]

Just now, DavidS said:

You have to give this 18z credit, it keeps trying

Agreed, and normally this would cause a buzz, but very far away... 

[Griff]

Wouldn't surprise me if this run ends almost as bonkers but through a different evolution... 

As already said all roads lead to R... Ruin, I mean cold (maybe). 

Edited November 16, 2020 by Griff

[bluearmy]

Given the current fi gefs, having these fi gfs ops isn’t a surprise - but at some point we are going to have a couple of guff ops and then the big question is whether the amplified ens members can survive in numbers .......

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

If you want my opinion,the gfs post day ten is OK. 

I take it you mean that particular run is ok for cold and snow prospects as opposed to a general appraisal of the models reliability post D10 as far as verification goes?!!!

[DavidS]

Ok, who else can see a crazy ancient alien skull?

Edited November 16, 2020 by DavidS
Spelling

[Mapantz]

Just a gentle reminder - for general chit-chat, head over to here

Cheers. 

[booferking]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

More poor news for coldies from the latest ec46 run .... euro (mainly)  and sceuro highs with Atlantic trough pos NAO pattern 

EC is as useful as chocolate fire-guard or an ashtray on a motorbike.?

[Griff]

Probability has to be low for an outcome that doesn't really bring colder precipitation! 

[damianslaw]

Mmm 3 GFS runs all leading to a blocked outlook. Not often this happens. 

A common theme from the models today is for height rises to have a greater influence and gain a proper foothold by the end of November and into December. 

Would be good just to have some dry sunny conditions after weeks of grey dank wetness. 

 

 

[DavidS]

Another interesting run from the GFS. While not as exciting as the 06z and 12z for UK cold, the theme of heights to the north continued.  It was persistent as well and reached 1045.

The PV also ended up over the Siberian side of the Arctic.

[Zak M]

Evening all.

I'm a bit bored this evening. In fact, I'm always bored at around this time. So there might be a long post coming up. I haven't even finished yet so I don't know how long this post will be

Some great posts tonight, by the way. Thanks to all the members that contribute in this thread. I really appreciate it.

3 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

i caught Zak viewing the models earlier

 

 

My emotions were a bit mixed tonight, when I saw the charts. Obviously I hate the cold (I don't mind it when there's snow or a storm overhead at the time), but the GFS and it's other runs might be quite good in terms of snow and I like snow. It's way, way, way (x2000) out into FI however, so anything could happen haha.

The ECM looks a tad underwhelming if it's cold and snow you're looking for. Here's the day 10 chart:

That ridge gets pushed away too quickly by the raging Atlantic. If that ridge stayed there and slowly migrated to the NE, then we may have a decent chance of some cold arriving from Europe or Scandinavia. The chart is quite good for the hills of Scotland though. The -4c isotherm is present, so I would expect some snow to fall on higher ground in the north if that chart verifies. Other models, like the GFS and GEM, show the most cold potential. The goofus, its control run and its other perturbations, are the best models tonight for any cold/snow potential. The blocking over Scotland/Iceland allows some cold from eastern Europe to travel westwards and eventually reach the UK (it's important to note that not all of the GFS perturbations show this). A few of the GFS perturbations actually drag even colder uppers from the north because of a blocking that establishes itself over the Atlantic and Greenland, which then introduces a very cold northerly to parts of N England at T384. The GEM is quite similar to the GFS, and includes the blocking but this time, the GEM has it further east over Scandi, and doesn't allow the uppers to travel as far as the UK. If the GEM had the same timeframe as the GFS, then we might've seen the cold eventually reach the British Isles at around the T300 mark.

The 18z GFS shows the blocking near Scandi, but it arrives later this time, and the cold only gets as far west as Germany.

Next up, the ECM clusters.

The picture above is the ECM clusters for day 7. Literally all of them have the high slap bang on top of the UK.

If we fast forward right to the beginning of December, they show this:

Both are showing above average heights in or near Greenland, which is a good start. The first cluster doesn't look like the best however, with above average heights to our south and east, which makes that cluster look like it would deliver some mild and wet weather if it verified. The next cluster, however, could indicate something more colder to come. Obviously, these are only the 500hpa heights, so it's quite hard to tell how cold that cluster could be. But above average heights over Greenland, below average heights slap bang over us, and what looks like above average heights just in the frame near Scandinavia, is usually a good sign if we want to crave some colder weather.

I stumbled across ECMWF's website for the first time (yes, you read that right!) and found some interesting features that they added a couple of months back. I found a chart which showed the 500hpa geopotential anomaly for the ensemble mean in the NH view, which updated earlier today. I had a look through it, and the first two weeks showed above average heights to our south and east, but it showed this for the end of November and the start of December (charts both linked below if you want to have a proper look at all of them):

   

ECMWF Forecasts

WWW.ECMWF.INT

It looks very similar to one of the ECM clusters I posted above, which includes above average heights near Greenland and Scandi, and below average heights near the UK. I don't know much about this chart or this feature, so I'm not entirely sure how accurate this is, but could we see a cold end to November and start to December? The ECM clusters and the GFS also thinks so.

And lastly, here's the GFS/ECM 8-10 day 500mb mean:

They're both not the best and don't really look like they are showing something cold for us. We really need that HP cell over NW Europe to migrate either northwards or eastwards for the better chance of seeing any cold. But I'd rather hear the opinions of two far more experienced and knowledgeable people: @johnholmes and @mushymanrob, and even a few others!

Oh, I'll include this too.

So, it's rather uncertain as for what could happen at the end of November and at the start of December. For now, I'll be sitting on the fence. I still have a feeling that this winter will be more snowy than the previous few. I unfortunately don't have much evidence of that happening at the moment, but it's just a feeling from my gut!

As always, please let me know if you spot any mistakes I have made. I'm still a teenager and have only been watching the models for just over a year, but with all these wonderful posters, I'm always able to learn more things everyday!

Have a good nights sleep all. Each day is a step closer to winter.

ZM

 

Edited November 16, 2020 by Zak M

[BlueHedgehog074]

30 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Evening all.

I'm a bit bored this evening. In fact, I'm always bored at around this time. So there might be a long post coming up. I haven't even finished yet so I don't know how long this post will be

Some great posts tonight, by the way. Thanks to all the members that contribute in this thread. I really appreciate it.

My emotions were a bit mixed tonight, when I saw the charts. Obviously I hate the cold (I don't mind it when there's snow or a storm overhead at the time), but the GFS and it's other runs might be quite good in terms of snow and I like snow. It's way, way, way (x2000) out into FI however, so anything could happen haha.

The ECM looks a tad underwhelming if it's cold and snow you're looking for. Here's the day 10 chart:

That ridge gets pushed away too quickly by the raging Atlantic. If that ridge stayed there and slowly migrated to the NE, then we may have a decent chance of some cold arriving from Europe or Scandinavia. The chart is quite good for the hills of Scotland though. The -4c isotherm is present, so I would expect some snow to fall on higher ground in the north if that chart verifies. Other models, like the GFS and GEM, show the most cold potential. The goofus, its control run and its other perturbations, are the best models tonight for any cold/snow potential. The blocking over Scotland/Iceland allows some cold from eastern Europe to travel westwards and eventually reach the UK (it's important to note that not all of the GFS perturbations show this). A few of the GFS perturbations actually drag even colder uppers from the north because of a blocking that establishes itself over the Atlantic and Greenland, which then introduces a very cold northerly to parts of N England at T384. The GEM is quite similar to the GFS, and includes the blocking but this time, the GEM has it further east over Scandi, and doesn't allow the uppers to travel as far as the UK. If the GEM had the same timeframe as the GFS, then we might've seen the cold eventually reach the British Isles at around the T300 mark.

The 18z GFS shows the blocking near Scandi, but it arrives later this time, and the cold only gets as far west as Germany.

Next up, the ECM clusters.

The picture above is the ECM clusters for day 7. Literally all of them have the high slap bang on top of the UK.

If we fast forward right to the beginning of December, they show this:

Both are showing above average heights in or near Greenland, which is a good start. The first cluster doesn't look like the best however, with above average heights to our south and east, which makes that cluster look like it would deliver some mild and wet weather if it verified. The next cluster, however, could indicate something more colder to come. Obviously, these are only the 500hpa heights, so it's quite hard to tell how cold that cluster could be. But above average heights over Greenland, below average heights slap bang over us, and what looks like above average heights just in the frame near Scandinavia, is usually a good sign if we want to crave some colder weather.

I stumbled across ECMWF's website for the first time (yes, you read that right!) and found some interesting features that they added a couple of months back. I found a chart which showed the 500hpa geopotential anomaly for the ensemble mean in the NH view, which updated earlier today. I had a look through it, and the first two weeks showed above average heights to our south and east, but it showed this for the end of November and the start of December (charts both linked below if you want to have a proper look at all of them):

   

ECMWF Forecasts

WWW.ECMWF.INT

It looks very similar to one of the ECM clusters I posted above, which includes above average heights near Greenland and Scandi, and below average heights near the UK. I don't know much about this chart or this feature, so I'm not entirely sure how accurate this is, but could we see a cold end to November and start to December? The ECM clusters and the GFS also thinks so.

And lastly, here's the GFS/ECM 8-10 day 500mb mean:

They're both not the best and don't really look like they are showing something cold for us. We really need that HP cell over NW Europe to migrate either northwards or eastwards for the better chance of seeing any cold. But I'd rather hear the opinions of two far more experienced and knowledgeable people: @johnholmes and @mushymanrob, and even a few others!

Oh, I'll include this too.

So, it's rather uncertain as for what could happen at the end of November and at the start of December. For now, I'll be sitting on the fence. I still have a feeling that this winter will be more snowy than the previous few. I unfortunately don't have much evidence of that happening at the moment, but it's just a feeling from my gut!

As always, please let me know if you spot any mistakes I have made. I'm still a teenager and have only been watching the models for just over a year, but with all these wonderful posters, I'm always able to learn more things everyday!

Have a good nights sleep all. Each day is a step closer to winter.

ZM

 

Hi Zak, I genuinely felt this was a well thought out post that went into great detail. A good job with it!  

Sums things up well I feel. It does seem it’s a little all over the place at the moment regarding cold weather possibilities. One real possible trend from some of the charts could be to see a ridge of High Pressure get pushed over the UK into early next week, then hang about close by to our East. However, I think it is a bit early to be sure and there is a chance a more encouraging High Latitude Blocking situation could arise. Would help as well to see a stronger signal for some kind of European trough to the South or South-East of us. But could deliver directly over the UK too if the Lows associated with the UK trough had enough cold air wrapped around them. A number of us would love the snow to come and give us a wave. Fortunate that there’s a few months ahead where that could become a prospect.

[DavidS]

Heights to the north again on the 00z GFS. Thats four in a row now. By day 14 it’s showing a tasty Scandi block.

 

[Chesil View]

A slower run to a blocked solution on the 00z GFS. But a Scandi block still evident. I like the West Country slider late on as well. Not all bells and whistle lime the 12z buy happy to settlef for that going into Dec.

[West is Best]

My concern is that the GFS has flip-flopped from a mega Greenland High (1060mb) to low pressure in the latest 0z run. Steve Murr has drilled into us old-timers the importance of the Greenland High for established upstream blocking.

I've been watching the GFS over the summer and early autumn and I've been despairing at its volatility. I posted about this a few weeks back, suggesting it would be better to put a blindfold on and pin a tail on the donkey (that's a nod to an old old poster on here by the name of Atmos Ferric who then morphed into Stratos Ferric before vanishing without trace).

The point is that GFS beyond T168 has become an unreliable joke in my opinion. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by West is Best