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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

ECM looks very circumspect, undercooking heights over Scandi I feel on this run, how can you have strong low heights either side, and end up with no strong ridge inbetween.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

ECM looks very circumspect, undercooking heights over Scandi I feel on this run, how can you have strong low heights either side, and end up with no strong ridge inbetween.

I'm being good and following house rules, but as per my latest post in the twitter thread, the so called pros (I joke surely ) are having none of it as far as the ECM ensembles are concerned. 

Dragons and disappointment this way... 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

Well, it's all been said, it would seem. The GFS 12Z OP and Control are certainly heading in a very different direction and if GEM went beyond T+240 it could be very interesting.

ECM at this stage doesn't want to know and the build of heights into Scandinavia at T+192 just isn't sustained as the Russian HP is too far to the north and east.

This looks to be the critical point - T+216 tonight - so really still very much FI and reliant it seems on the continuing disconnect between the stratospheric and tropospheric  vortices. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The question I'm left with is quite simple: Do I bin the GFS, the ECM... or all of 'em?:drunk-emoji:

PS: Why would anyone pay £40 per month, for a service that's no better than old-fashioned Dialup!

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

It would seem Glosea is seeing PM incursions going by Exeters update...

I'm hopeful a developing-AO will assist the jet digging SE into Europe.

Failing that, its a pretty grim alternative...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM is very underwhelming .

The writing was on the wall by day 7 and thereafter it just drags out the boredom.

The key is how far north you get the ridge before it starts to topple ne wards.

Its a role reversal with the normally more progressive GFS being more amplified and the ECM barreling far too much energy eastwards .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
53 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Looking at the gefs stamps at day ten and there isn't that many that take the ECM route as in blowing the block away to the east

gens_panel_wwe8.thumb.png.69a52a90f8b30ef112b8cc6e89d4b0bc.png382051251_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.ed3283ed6299f5a3e505717aa016ac4c.gif

so is the ECM having a wobble or will it be nearer the mark?

meanwhile...

i caught Zak viewing the models earlier

 

 

a wobble, a wobble??? Dear me, if verification came with burgers, ECM would be obese! 
For me it’s on the right track, listen, low heights traversing over the atmosphere make it unlikely for there to be any easterly flow across the UK.

Having said that, there’s a chance that the lower gradients sink south not far from east, thus squeezing and blowing up the pressure, however, it’s likely to be drier rather than humid.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, dragan said:

a wobble, a wobble??? Dear me, if verification came with burgers, ECM would be obese! 
For me it’s on the right track, listen, low heights traversing over the atmosphere make it unlikely for there to be any easterly flow across the UK.

Having said that, there’s a chance that the lower gradients sink south not far from east, thus squeezing and blowing up the pressure, however, it’s likely to be drier rather than humid.
 

In other words... 'Big' Joe B isn't the US's President Elect...? Well, not that one anywho!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

USA forecasters have only given small weighting to the ECM ensembles and ops for their extended forecasts after Saturday which is a good thing because we don’t want it to verify ! They’ve gone for a higher input of NAEFS and other guidance . 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

USA forecasters have only given small weighting to the ECM ensembles and ops for their extended forecasts after Saturday which is a good thing because we don’t want it to verify ! They’ve gone for a higher input of NAEFS and other guidance . 

Over to the 18z!!!!surely at some point luck has gota go our way!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Imagine the options going forward it this was to verify!!!!

image.thumb.png.bff6c76e13abef705c4a1504795a09ef.png

... and as for that cold pool!!!!!

image.thumb.png.972a5ba0484575fae712efa350bb25c8.png

Best enjoy it while we can, it will probably be gone in about 90 minutes!!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

If my memory serves me correctly, the GFS nailed the Christmas easterly of 2005 whilst ECM was having none of it until it backtracked at short notice. This was an uncannily similar evolution to what the GFS is gunning for now. 

Screenshot_20201116-212344.png

Screenshot_20201116-212407.png

Screenshot_20201116-212426.png

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Imagine the options going forward it this was to verify!!!!

image.thumb.png.bff6c76e13abef705c4a1504795a09ef.png

... and as for that cold pool!!!!!

image.thumb.png.972a5ba0484575fae712efa350bb25c8.png

Best enjoy it while we can, it will probably be gone in about 90 minutes!!!

 

Aye, the annual netweather pantomime season is well-and-truly underway: It's going to snow! Oh no it isn't! Oh yes it is! It's behind you!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More poor news for coldies from the latest ec46 run .... euro (mainly)  and sceuro highs with Atlantic trough pos NAO pattern 

Lets hope the latest run is as inaccurate as the previous few weeks and it's constant touting of raised heights to our north west for the second half of November. Absolutely no sign of raised heights to our north west. I think the ec46 is struggling..... And not for the first time. 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More poor news for coldies from the latest ec46 run .... euro (mainly)  and sceuro highs with Atlantic trough pos NAO pattern 

Let’s hope it’s as accurate as all those times it’s advertised Greenland blocks over the years ??

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Lets hope the latest run is as inaccurate as the previous few weeks and it's constant touting of raised heights to our north west for the second half of November. Absolutely no sign of raised heights to our north west. I think the ec46 is struggling..... And not for the first time. 

Yeh but as always it will probably get the milder outlook correct lol!!typical

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh but as always it will probably get the milder outlook correct lol!!typical

You must have read my mind as I was posting that lol We certainly know that it never seems to work both ways huh? The law of sod in all it's horrid glory! 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Meanwhile the 18z seems even more bullish about the amplification in our neck of the woods. I'm hoping for a repeat of the very rare victory GFS had over ECM during Xmas 2005 that I mentioned earlier. 

Screenshot_20201116-221258.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Meanwhile the 18z seems even more bullish about the amplification in our neck of the woods. I'm hoping for a repeat of the very rare victory GFS had over ECM during Xmas 2005 that I mentioned earlier. 

Screenshot_20201116-221258.png

Locked on then!

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