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Model output discussion - Winter approaches

Paul

By Paul
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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

gfs keen on the high pressure to our east feeding in east to southeast winds from 

192 hrs.Boasting a bit I did mention this scenario yesterday in my blog,but still long

way to go will believe more when gfs and ecm show this positioning of the high at 72hrs.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

look at that Greeny pressure rise, epic run albeit way out in FI. This setup would produce a pretty notable cold period if it materialised.
 

image.thumb.png.8e153f2769d5ed7559b4fd3c88f88092.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
33 minutes ago, Griff said:

who was saying that a potential scandi / greenland link up was better?

Could happen... (Yes bored and avoiding my tax return)

gfsnh-0-186.png

well it took a while

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

For any new members or the younger end I'd book Mark this 12z gfs fi. You may not see it again for a while

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

well it took a while

Think we're starting to see more than a few hints now that December could start cold and possibly wintry. How cold and wintry is up for debate.

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Amazing consistency from gfs,better than the last run,would you believe.Very cold uppers invading now into the far North of Europe moving South

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Think we're starting to see more than a few hints now that December could start cold and possibly wintry. How cold and wintry is up for debate.

Did you say I should ramp massively and tell everyone I know 

Then it won't happen?

But certainly pleasing charts jff!

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
Just now, SLEETY said:

Amazing consistency from gfs,better than the last run,would you believe.Very cold uppers invading now into the far North of Europe moving South

And only a 1060mb greenland high

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, DavidS said:

So different to the 06z, but possibly more interesting. 

133EA06E-AE37-4ABF-B6CF-DF0E69B2D337.png

Yes, but what's good is it's all just a variation of a theme of N blocking.

Given EC seasonal showing heights in the N Atlantic for Dec, the crazily blocked CFS run I saw yesterday and now hints from the medium range NWP, all the evidence points towards a potential December cold spell.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

Different to the 06z but the general theme is still the same,all roads lead to cold...

gfsnh-0-330.thumb.png.4a8fd1034425e0aa08aadf88a4c15b16.png

what a stonker that is^

calm down Si

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

Seriously cold uppers start to flow southwards on the 12z GFS. I'm waiting to see what T384 will look like. Could potentially be a stonking chart for snow.

gfs-0-342.thumb.png.4439a7340b9c0da1ced83384901fd0ea.png   gfs-1-342.thumb.png.0b6e31bd12e817551b26eb341d9b4774.png

The 12z GEM is also quite similar to the GFS:

gem-0-240.thumb.png.b88aadf6419ccb555677444e73f0eb09.png   gem-1-240.thumb.png.7dee8355200e5125c180f1a00223e741.png

What could possibly go wrong!

Edited by Zak M
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

The GFS 12z is phenomenal textbook retrogression it may not happen but to see charts like this in November is a big novelty. AO forecasts trending negative late November things appear to be more loaded.

9800A717-A859-4B5C-9AB6-02CA20FE30B3.thumb.png.2f6f0feeb8873e6438b78ef8e2bab970.pngFD2F34A7-2D7E-40D5-B6D5-E43945F5A5BB.thumb.gif.1c73d2d0889f9ec26312242cd740439e.gif

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DavidS Aficionado

DavidS

Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
Posted
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, but what's good is it's all just a variation of a theme of N blocking.

Given EC seasonal showing heights in the N Atlantic for Dec, the crazily blocked CFS run I saw yesterday and now hints from the medium range NWP, all the evidence points towards a potential December cold spell.

Yes I agree, heights to the north two runs in a row. Onwards to the pub run.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

BOOM SHAK A LAK!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

12Z is different though, beast off on this run, average temps I reckon, 6-7 max?

gfs-0-342.png?12

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
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Posted (edited)

WOW! - That is run of the year so far - thats some cold pool building or about to build over the continent, get the Greeny in first and fill up the continent so when it topples we are firing a 44 magnum from the East, not a pop gun. remember with it being this early - -10 to -12c will smash the floodgates with reasonably low 500mb heights, some massive convection getting right the way to the West, 30th Nov 2010 was around -10 and a slight wave developed in unstable air and 6 inches fell in about 2 and a half hours as far West as low lying parts of Manchester.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Thats incredible cold over Europe, imagine if we could tap into that !! Note how warm Most of Canada and America are, it’s nice to see them not forecast to be in the freezer for a change!! 

 

image.thumb.png.1b689fc64e105a1468f34803ba2fd111.png

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Think that's the 6z GC

I thought it looked mighty similar!:drunk-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Still enough for Nathan Rao to wet himself... I mean, there's gotta be a Wall of Snow in there somewhere!

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Great synoptics from day 10, but nice signs of a pattern change well before this...still, it must be a first for Net Weather to get such exitement from a run where the -5 850 is absent from the uk all the way to T384

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

Nice GEM as well!

image.thumb.png.e4bcdb39c6de753b7d20dff28f3f9d61.png

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