Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[That ECM]

 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Yes watching now. Not without interest.

 

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

 

Doing my tax return here, the lord giveth and taketh!

[Nick F]

Good grief 06z, need to work on the T850s but still a chilly continental flow day 10

The 00z GEFS mean hinting at Atlantic wave- breaking against blocking high to the NE too, but further out, the latest op just brings it forward 

Edited November 16, 2020 by Nick F

[Griff]

just being teased....

[That ECM]

11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Good grief 06z, need to work on the T850s but still a chilly continental flow day 10

The 00z GEFS mean hinting at Atlantic wave- breaking against blocking high to the NE too, but further out, the latest op just brings it forward 

It actually strengthens the block as time ticks on. Nice to look at, let’s hope it continues on future runs. We will see but we’ve been here before for newbies it’s a good run to view to see how cold theoretically can be drawn east to west.

Edited November 16, 2020 by That ECM

[SLEETY]

How many times do these easterlies every verify when they come into the more reliable time-frame,if they ever get that far in the first place.

Next run will be completely different as it ever was on the GFS,same with ECM,its been useless in the winter months,showing easterlies in it latter ouput,that NEVER verify..

[mb018538]

6z is a peach as others have said. Just eye candy for now sadly at T+300!

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

How many times do these easterlies every verify when they come into the more reliable time-frame,if they ever get that far in the first place.

Next run will be completely different as it ever was on the GFS,same with ECM,its been useless in the winter months,showing easterlies in it latter ouput,that NEVER verify..

That's what I said last night! 

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Good grief 06z, need to work on the T850s but still a chilly continental flow day 10

The 00z GEFS mean hinting at Atlantic wave- breaking against blocking high to the NE too, but further out, the latest op just brings it forward 

Might not need the really cold uppers Nick, with that front approaching, could be a full on blizzard in the South.

[DavidS]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

How many times do these easterlies every verify when they come into the more reliable time-frame,if they ever get that far in the first place.

Next run will be completely different as it ever was on the GFS,same with ECM,its been useless in the winter months,showing easterlies in it latter ouput,that NEVER verify..

Yes, most probably. Especially as the 06z is so different from the 00z. There was however a sliver of heights on 00z ECM, so maybe. Also the 00z GEFS mean as posted by NIck F is very interesting.

[jules216]

Will the ops lead the way here? Would like the EPS to be a bit better to be honest this morning so caution required. Anyway those Scandi blocks are real winter weather porn. The easterly feed here in Slovakia would make it feel like -10 in daytime.

[feb1991blizzard]

[Froze were the Days]

See the return of the day 10 potential is back on the ecm - and then piff paff poof!!

[West is Best]

G'day all.

Basically lockdown porn for cold lovers 

[Methuselah]

Ooh er... If ever we're gonna see any of the white stuff (at this time of year and with winds  straight off the North Sea) the sea-track needs be short as possible... All JFF, at this long range:

    

[Griff]

seems like a very long wait to +366 to get a bit of cold 850s (I understand the comedy value of placing any stock in this)

[SLEETY]

lets see some consistency for once from the models if this easterly is ever to come off.At least both models are showing similar in their outputs for once,can the easterly make it to 144 hours then we count down to ZERO.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Unsettled? Depends on which part of the uk you are I guess.

 With a  mean upper southwesterly?. yeah thats likely to be unsettled, but not raging unsettled. There would be a NW / SE split if these charts become reality (which is highly likely imho) with as usual, the wettest windiest weather in the northwest.  But i wouldnt expect it to be overly wet or windy.

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Not a surprise given the cross model means (sundays chart is pure naefs)  but with two very different evenly weighted clusters, perhaps this is a time when the mean won’t be quite as useful as it usually is ?  the favourite is clearly the pos NAO with sceuro ridge at best and euro at worst ...but there is certainly a trend in the nwp to amplify quite notably in week 2 

Well we will see whether the mean is as useful or not in time.  And im not writing off anything cold developing, i just dont think its going to happen much before the end of the month unless the NOAA 500mb mean is going to be a long way off. I wouldnt bet against that!

[Methuselah]

I do fear an early forum-wide outbreak of the DTs... That's the Day Tens by-the-way!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, General Cluster said:

I do fear an early forum-wide outbreak of the DTs... That's the Day Tens by-the-way!

Aye but Ed, dread media getting on to this unrealistic 06Z! maybe 06Z and 18Z should be scrapped,

hate the snow bomb polar vortex to batter UK, with minus 15 and FEET of snow at end of Nov, would want to burn them papers

[Griff]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye but Ed, dread media getting on to this unrealistic 06Z! maybe 06Z and 18Z should be scrapped,

hate the snow bomb polar vortex to batter UK, with minus 15 and FEET of snow at end of Nov, would want to burn them papers

Presumably burn them to keep warm and survive the mini ice age?

[That ECM]

Flicking through the perbs there are a number of interesting ones. An uptick in ne blocking ones I would suggest.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

6z is a peach as others have said. Just eye candy for now sadly at T+300!

Ahh but the interest starts way before then at t192....

Block in place and trough disruption.  That’s a touch of eye candy too

 

BFTP

[topo]

Ensembles look quite different though, in both models..

[Rocheydub]

Can’t wait for the first sign of shortwave drama.... Not!