Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Methuselah]

But, goodness me, they're exciting!

    

[Zak M]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS is drunk, likely to verify

The Goofus?

That cold over in Europe was so close, yet so far. That blocking over Scandi and the North Sea stalls there for quite a while too.

Edited November 14, 2020 by Zak M

[feb1991blizzard]

34 minutes ago, Griff said:

Again cue shouts of overly progressive GFS... 

Lets hope it is overly progressive!!

Because if that's overly progressive, we are in business, with that cold trough over Russia about to inject a load of potent air into the continent, imagine that a good few hundred miles further West with that trough to the west of us looking very undercutty.

[Griff]

Just now, Zak M said:

The GooFuS?

That cold over in Europe was so close, yet so far. It stalls there for quite a while too.

Good thing it's only likely to improve and inch westwards, run on run, until it counts down to an early beast Christmas present... Hiccup 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

But, goodness me, they're exciting!

    

Remember tho GC "the trend is your friend" and what do "wedges" make

[Chesil View]

Interesting negative tilt on the Atlantic trough as the high builds to the north and east

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS is drunk, likely to verify

Sounds like a plan HIC

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEM 12 z @ t144

UKMO 12 z @ t144

GFS 12 z @ t144

 

UKMO at t144 is the best so far for cold flooding South ( briefly ) on Fri 20th.

-8 isotherm into North East of the UK for a few hours and would likely deliver some snow to Northern hills  

 

[Griff]

I sincerely feel sorry for anyone who's just checking in and might actually get excited and hope from this run!  

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

I sincerely feel sorry for anyone who's just checking in and might actually get excited and hope from this run!  

Me too and I apologise. BTW a slider to finish the run, rain but sliding

[Chesil View]

Some very cold air sneaking round the back that high to our North east as we head into December.

All good fun at this range but a very possible outcome.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Me too and I apologise. BTW a slider to finish the run, rain but sliding

I think we're all celebrating your Birthday, swfc? As Ollie Reed might've said: Hic!

    

[Cheshire Freeze]

The fundamental point we should be taking from output over the past few weeks is that we're seeing a tendency for the trough to approach us on a more NW/SE axis.

This suggests to me that we are currently predisposed to a more meridional jet flow. This bodes well going into December...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Certainly enough hints in the NWP at present to suggest a cold spell may be on the way within the next 4 weeks.

[Griff]

I'll probably fall asleep before it comes out but very interested in the 12z ECMWF. Hoping for heights to the north again (confirmation bias is a wonderful thing and guilty as charged). 

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Certainly enough hints in the NWP at present to suggest a cold spell may be on the way within the next 4 weeks.

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by Griff

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Certainly enough hints in the NWP at present to suggest a cold spell may be on the way within the next 4 weeks.

We live in hope crewe

[Polar Maritime]

24 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fundamental point we should be taking from output over the past few weeks is that we're seeing a tendency for the trough to approach us on a more NW/SE axis.

This suggests to me that we are currently predisposed to a more meridional jet flow. This bodes well going into December...

Agree there Crew, Signals certainly suggest sharp PM flows and  transient Northerly's. Which is a good start.

Edited November 14, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[northwestsnow]

Progressive EC this evening....

Nothing like UKMO at 144 ...

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Progressive EC this evening....

Nothing like UKMO at 144 ...

Middle ground option EC is most likely outcome.

[Griff]

I'm still awake!.... 

That looks familiar... 

Edited November 14, 2020 by Griff

[swfc]

Yes very gfs looking ec so far

[northwestsnow]

EC is actually quite a cold run as high pressure generally keeps the UK settled.

Hoping for some frosty nights ....

[swfc]

Looks very much like the near back door easterly gfs tried early is manifesting on ec

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Looks very much like the near back door easterly gfs tried early is manifesting on ec

Like this? 

[Tim Bland]

Looks ok to me...