Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[bluearmy]

gfs tends sw/ne with the lw atlantic trough in week 2 which is certainly an option but not set in stone 

[Frosty.]

Oh my giddy aunt, just look at the Gfs 12z op..just look at it, can you believe it??...it shows cold..and snaw!...I need to go have a lie down now..ps..I’m out of reactions..sorry! ️ !

Edited November 13, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Zak M]

Just hopped back on from my workout, and blimey, take a look at this 12z GFS. -8c uppers reaching the south Midlands! Looks like some places will see the first taste of winter next week if this verifies, as others have said.

   

This is currently 8 days away, so expect some corrections in the uppers and where the cold weather is expected. The GFS has some snow for the hills of Scotland, N England, and even down to the hills of S England. The GEM is quite similar with the GFS, but it's not as cold, and only has the -8c isotherm in Scotland. Let's see if the ECM will follow on with the GFS and GEM. I'll take a look at the GFS and GEM perturbations soon, and as many of you know, I'll post the coldest one I can find.

PS: If this chart comes off, then you Scottish peeps must not forget your snowboard.

Edited November 13, 2020 by Zak M

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Any northerly will only be transient according to these charts, as we retain a moderately strong westerly mean upper flow. This looks unsettled, average, wettest and cloudiest in the north .

Sorry but that ECM chart isnt the start of a new trend/pattern/whatever.

 

It might not be, but hemispherically you can see pressure repeatedly being placed on the zonal hemispheric flow by that Russian HP. 

Personally I would not discount a SSW mid winter...

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

As this tweet and others have said - MJO activity is now subsiding, and we should head back towards a more typical Nina pattern in the next 2-3 weeks. Some excitement at last!

Backs up my comments this morning, less interference from tropical activity allowing a more typical La Nina pattern to emerge as being indicated by current modelling, a possible chilly end to November, note word 'chilly' and not very cold, but chilly enough to feel cold with every chance of some early wintriness more so in the north. Secondary low and slider territory into relatively cold air.

[sheikhy]

38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO further east than GFS...

Not to say either model is correct of course !

EC will be interesting...

Was gona say in terms of heights its better across greenland but becuase the pattern is slightly further east it dont look as good!!had it been even slightly further west i reckon it would have been really good viewing!!

[Dancerwithwings]

We should all thank Paul for starting a new thread (winter approaches) certainly looking that way

[damianslaw]

Just an observation but the latter part of November since 2015 has tended to deliver an early taste of winter it seems. Sometimes cold and frosty, and some early snow, well here at least. Only year not so sure delivered was 2018. But 2015, 2016, 2017 and last year certainly did.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just an observation but the latter part of November since 2015 has tended to deliver an early taste of winter it seems. Sometimes cold and frosty, and some early snow, well here at least. Only year not so sure delivered was 2018. But 2015, 2016, 2017 and last year certainly did.

not here, only 2010 in recent years

[Dancerwithwings]

If the Models are right, temps taking a marked dip by next weekend....Lovely

[The PIT]

Nice eye candy but too far away to get excited about and UKMO kicks it mostly of the pitch anyway. However it shows that it may not be an exceptional mild November as some were thinking in the CET thread.

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

UKMO 144 is a bit meh tonight:

 

That is basically a high of 10/11C for London, Manchester 8/9C and Aberdeen 7/8C with any snowfall reserved for the mountain hares above 600/700 meters. 
 

I’m not sure I totally follow you, it does look pretty slider like to me, and it’s pretty cold in Scotland actually on the UKMO the interior not much above freezing. Cold enough for snow to fall much lower than that.

[Hotspur62]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members .

It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older you get the quicker the years seem to flash by!

Anyway in terms of the latest models. Certainly some interest has developed over the last few days in terms of some colder weather , snow wise not the depth of cold at this stage unless you’re higher up .

The GFS does have a shortwave feature running east/se with some colder air tucking south .

In mid winter this would be leading to pandemonium in here but currently not quite cold enough for more widespread interest.

I think the thing to keep an eye on is how the models deal with pressure rising to the nw and also what happens to the PV . If you don’t get a chunk splitting off and taking up shop over sw Greenland then the energy supply for low pressure moving east is going to be reduced so more shallower features could disrupt se under any high pressure .

Day 6 into 7 looks key where you need sufficient upstream trough disruption to support that lobe of high pressure to the nw .

Great to have you back on the forum-love your take on things which gives us great entertainment and humour(as well as knowledge)Look forward to a nice ‘Genoa Low’ and not too many short waves that could scupper the UK COLD

[Tim Bland]

Fair few ensembles going forward some snow Midlands north at the end of next week

[damianslaw]

42 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Indeed - classic seasonal November months - especially up here. 

2016:

 

2017:

 

2019:

 

This month so far can get in the bin! 

UKMO 144 is a bit meh tonight:

 

That is basically a high of 10/11C for London, Manchester 8/9C and Aberdeen 7/8C with any snowfall reserved for the mountain hares above 600/700 meters. 

More to the point I am still waiting on @mb018538 rapid slide into unsettled weather next week with the Atlantic gearing up... (Still looking dry/calm for Southern England next week mate)

Edit: @ Daniel post below I’ll stick with the Met Office automated/UKV for the 19th. 
We shall see who is nearer the mark. 

UKMO chart if went further on would probably show low heights squeezed through UK thanks to the wedge of heights to the NW, azores high retracted back west.

[SMU]

Choppy undercutter slider into -6> -8 air

[northwestsnow]

EC would bring the first widespread frost of Autumn late next week....

[winterof79]

54 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Nice eye candy but too far away to get excited about and UKMO kicks it mostly of the pitch anyway. However it shows that it may not be an exceptional mild November as some were thinking in the CET thread.

Hardly in to touch is it? 

[cheshire snow]

16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Choppy undercutter slider into -6> -8 air

Battery alert Steve.. 

[Mr Frost]

ECM 192:

North:

 

 

South:
 

 

Imagine the scenes! 

That is not a bad effort from the ECM tonight - more chance of England beating Scotland at the Euro’s next Summer  but that is lovely to look at! 

Edited November 13, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Zak M]

That ECM run could be a true snow producer in the north and east if it was to come off. -6c uppers reaching the S Midlands @168 too. @Jon Snow will be more than happy.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

That ECM run could be a true snow producer in the north and east if it was to come off. -6c uppers reaching the S Midlands @168 too. @Jon Snow will be more than happy.

Snow event midlands northwards at 192 hours!!temps close to 0 at midday on the 21st from north of birmingham northwards!!!

[sheikhy]

29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Choppy undercutter slider into -6> -8 air

Could we be looking at a january 2013 type of scenario here steve?wedge of heights around iceland sending snowy slider lows through into the continent!!

[Tim Bland]

Most areas would see at least a bit of snow from that ECM run

[northwestsnow]

EC probably provides some frosts and perhaps a little snow in the elevated North...

Something seasonal would be nice.