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Model output discussion - Winter approaches


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

GFS 6z not up and running yet ? Tried at couple of sites and it’s not updating. Maybe it’s been stopped for good , probably not a bad thing

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS 6z not up and running yet ? Tried at couple of sites and it’s not updating. Maybe it’s been stopped for good , probably not a bad thing

Aye, maybe going to just 00Z and 12Z?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS 6z not up and running yet ? Tried at couple of sites and it’s not updating. Maybe it’s been stopped for good , probably not a bad thing

No news is good news, eh?

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
19 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS 6z not up and running yet ? Tried at couple of sites and it’s not updating. Maybe it’s been stopped for good , probably not a bad thing

Folklore tells you its a sign for a colder winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
23 minutes ago, booferking said:

Here she comes guys run of the year trickling out.:snowman-emoji:

I think it will take that long lol:drunk-emoji:

there is a message on there now:-

GFS 06Z is late because of a distribution data problem by NOAA/NCEP.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I think it will take that long:drunk-emoji:

there is a message on there now:-

GFS 06Z is late because of a distribution data problem by NOAA/NCEP.

Well, it's never too early to invoke a shortage of balloon data?:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
58 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, it's never too early to invoke a shortage of balloon data?:santa-emoji:

I think the run is that good GC it's blown a fuse. 60s winter incoming, I tell thee

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So that's it then... a wonderful GFS 06Z (and the World) has terminated at T+42! Bloody Jehovah's Witnesses!

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
15 minutes ago, Paul said:

I suspect/hope the 12z will start on time and the 6z has been dropped. We'll find out in 10 minutes or so though. 

Who remembers the Chinese model that used to roll out so slowly the actual weather arrived first? It was still wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

6Z did update on tropicaltidbits and it was actualy a good run

received_909321256263003.webp received_2765704430366766.webp received_840337226733289.webp

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Cold shot appearing on the 12z GFS. Some models are starting to show something colder appearing within the 8-10 day range.

gfs-0-186.thumb.png.6db346a3ee4272402dae8d04382ed288.png   gfs-1-186.thumb.png.b471cb63b0432ac535153117ed81864f.png

The ICON could potentially show something cold if it went out to T240, and looks to be following this mornings GEM. The 12z GEM is following on with its morning run, with -4c uppers reaching the south coast, and a chance of snow falling on the hills of N England and Scotland. We still have a few models that disagree on this, so more runs needed.

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

If it was a bit more amplified in the Atlantic we could of potentially had quite a potent blast from the north on this run . 

C3BBAE69-B155-4864-93A1-0CB4F2FAE29B.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Some models are starting to show something colder appearing within the 8-10 day range.

This should be pinned to the top of this thread for the whole Winter season - save us all repeating it week in/week out. 

Latest UKMO brings us more mild/mundane weather - temperatures dropping to more normal values later next week. 

UKMO 96,120 and 144:
 

C5E1226F-9866-48C8-8EA8-EA2537FB9646.thumb.jpeg.4d31e5c2b4dc13840608521c94f6e5bb.jpeg55C87814-A783-4DB8-89D5-C450CEC725E9.thumb.jpeg.1c1be14918b216c59275f6cccf7ac011.jpeg6184336C-79E7-41AA-B384-E9051332E48C.thumb.jpeg.b874ba8846489559cd0488125a5de7ae.jpeg49DD87BB-B793-4612-BB59-F4FF4051E4C0.thumb.jpeg.dfd63b8e73f9c0364066b2f8accfc661.jpeg7A38FF36-4FEC-4F0C-8462-2F9FD3BB1951.thumb.jpeg.f17164aa791cc124ee1f29e151e76869.jpegF926819C-7124-4952-981D-7C1FB104E744.thumb.jpeg.ffa7258e309cb07ee66756d270e8d861.jpeg

Iceland looks as though it’s heading into the freezer...why can’t we have a member on here who lives there!? Instead we are stuck with our friend @jules216 from snowless Slovakia!  (Just joking of course mate!)

UK and Ireland wise - isn’t it great to be looking ahead to the official start of Meteorological Winter with at least a risk of cold/wintry weather arriving? :santa-emoji:

Have a good night everyone! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Aren't these charts like a failed orgasm: yes, yes, yes, yessss. Bugger!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Yesterday I asked if there was any point looking past t144? Well went it’s showing this, yes talk loads and look at it on macro scale. nice to see no plausible than yesterday tho.

6D363D9A-CC16-4329-96CE-E4D3F67EF718.png

Edited by That ECM
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