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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

An apparent massive drop in pressure (938mb), but still reporting a closed pinhole eye (8nm).

Surface winds seem to have dropped significantly too. Given the 4am est discussion from NHC, I can only guess that it tried to undergo/underwent an EWRC.

In any case, given its center just off the coast, the fact that it's apparently a slightly-less-devastating devastating thing is positive, but maybe not as meaningful as to be described as fortuitous.

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: The more the merrier.
  • Location: Staffordshire

Looks like an attempted EWRC cycle earlier today disrupted the structure a bit, not helped along by front edge being over land, but in the past hour the convection has actually picked back up again and the eye is starting to show a bit of definition even now as it's just about making landfall.

download.gif

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Random inappropriately timed fact.

Hurricane Eta is the 28th named storm of the season, matching the record set for storms which meet naming criteria in 2005. However, 2005 gave us a subtropical storm in the Azores during early October which wasn't classified as a subtropical storm until the post-season analysis, and so it went un-named at the time. Consequently, Hurricane Eta (2020) is the first use of this greek name despite not setting the record for most named storms in the season.

Meanwhile, back to reality....

sinapredphoto.jpeg
WEATHER.COM

Eta, a strong Category 4 hurricane, has ripped off roofs and toppled trees. Flooding has struck several areas in Central America. -...

Eta has created devastating flooding in Honduras, even before the eye got anywhere near land in Nicaragua to the south. It has reportedly claimed a life there. There's a whole lot more rain to come - like dumping half a bucket of water over the ground, except the bucket is the size of a small country.

From NHC:

Quote

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).
Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).
Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).
El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm).
Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

The hurricane weakens so quickly after this point owing not just to the lack of ocean beneath it, but to the mountainous terrain in its path after landfall - it's going to get shredded, but that only means that the land it gets shredded on gets drenched. The disaster that is about to unfold could be truly epic in proportion.
298265032_centralamericarelief.thumb.jpg.17da10376f7ae16200aa2ba42dc34775.jpg

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

Making landfall now at 140mph. Unfortunately it looks like Puerto Cabezas is going to take a direct hit north of the eye (the strongest part of the storm given it's currently moving west, though the small wind field might spare them the absolute strongest winds in the eyewall). 

It's also worth mentioning that Eta's circulation will be picking up moisture from the Pacific as well as the Atlantic at this point. I just hope the horrible experience of Mitch has at least prepared Honduras and Nicaragua better for situations like this (if at all possible). 

Edited by AderynCoch
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Whats the chances of this regenerating when it gets back out into the gulf.

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Whats the chances of this regenerating when it gets back out into the gulf.

Er, yes. 

Almost certainly, even though it will only be a tropical depression by the time it squirts back out .

The way the Gulf has been generating swiftly exploding hurricanes from mere dribbles over the last few years means Florida and Cuba need to be watching this very closely.

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

It's only a tropical depression now, with (according to NHC - I haven't looked) no meaningful convection over the center... and it's still over the highlands of Central America. It may emerge as a post-tropical depression. It may yet retain none of its former distinct circulation by the time it re-emerges. 

It seems clear that something will happen when it gets back into the Caribbean, but whether that something is tropical or sub-tropical, Eta or Theta, ... well, we'll just have to wait and see.

(Just looked, and NHC have it as post tropical/remnant low at 36hr. So, erm... yeah. That.)

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
7 minutes ago, crimsone said:

 

The NHC public forecast - NHC "isolated maximum storm totals of 40" (1000mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Cayman islands 30" (760mm) and Jamaica 15" (380mm) ."

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, crimsone said:

 

I do love your 'Cogito cogito ergo cogito sum' sig, Crimsone!

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
1 minute ago, Jo Farrow said:

The NHC public forecast - NHC "isolated maximum storm totals of 40" (1000mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Cayman islands 30" (760mm) and Jamaica 15" (380mm) ."

...

~Three and a third~ feet!?

Bleedin 'eck.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
nov03etasatNASA1.png
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Arriving as a Cat.4 hurricane, Eta looks to have storm totals of 1 metre of rainfall for Nicaragua and Honduras. Weaker now...

 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Surely not Louisiana again....

EmBI6T8X0Agh33g.jpeg

 

Honduras...

Normally looked like this...

EmEkQUYWoAE_FOg.jpeg

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

Eta has emerged from Central America and is just over the water east of the Belize coast as a TD. NHC seem touch and go on whether it's maintained a LLC however, but for now it's still Eta.

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
_115247815_mediaitem115247814.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Rescue efforts continue as the storm travels across the region, leaving a trail of destruction.

 

nov06etasat.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I see it's predicted to regain hurricane strength once again.

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

What a weird track this thing has got. Usually these late-season storms accelerate away to the northeast.

Steering currents must be almost non-existent. 

Edited by AderynCoch
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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
3 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

 

Steering currents must be almost non-existent. 

There does seem to be a general lack of direction on that side of the Atlantic, yes....

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Must admit that until today I thought it dead over central America.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Greg Dewhurst Met Office @GregDewhurst  2h   "If #Eta it still around by Saturday, it will become the longest living November North Atlantic cyclone on record"

NHC - "Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around 11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt. Since then it has moved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast of extreme southwestern Florida.

it could become a hurricane as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico ... However, there will be a fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit the amount of intensification.

...low confidence since its unclear where Eta will be located later in the week"

 

 

nov09NHCeta.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Eta is looking much healthier today and nearing hurricane strength again. 

Eta is expected to make landfall somewhere in western Florida tomorrow, probably as a strong tropical storm.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Back at hurricane strength now. Eta just keeps on going

"On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the SW coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday." NHC

nov11etawind.png

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