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Still a TS just now, but after this 28th named storm equalling the record set in 2005, we're in record setting territory.

Looks, on this forecast, like it might be a nasty little rainmaker over Central America, where whatever it lacks in intensity it'll make up for in lack of forward motion.

Screenshot 2020-11-01 at 9.14.11 PM.png

Edited by Jo Farrow
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Surely not Louisiana again....   Honduras... Normally looked like this...

Random inappropriately timed fact. Hurricane Eta is the 28th named storm of the season, matching the record set for storms which meet naming criteria in 2005. However, 2005 gave us a subtropical st

Now a Hurricane, Eta continues westward towards Nicaragua.  NHC "LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. On the f

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As of the very recent NHC update, we now have Hurricane Eta at 65kt intensity. Further intensification to 95kt is forecast prior to an ~incredibly~ slow motion landfall in Nicaragua.

 

Screenshot 2020-11-02 at 10.06.41 PM.png

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2 hours ago, crimsone said:

As of the very recent NHC update, we now have Hurricane Eta at 65kt intensity. Further intensification to 95kt is forecast prior to an ~incredibly~ slow motion landfall in Nicaragua.

 

Screenshot 2020-11-02 at 10.06.41 PM.png

Yes, it looks potentially catastrophic for parts of central America. The models then show the remnants of this system re-organising and eventually a hurricane reforms in the Caribbean

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Now a Hurricane, Eta continues westward towards Nicaragua. 

NHC "LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by early Tuesday. Continued strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday."

"Forecast rainfall totals this week -Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Huge amounts of rainfall from this system as it moves inland then looks to turn northwards"

Julian Heming (Met Office cyclone prediction) @77BlueSky77 "There is a fairly clear consensus from models that *something* will develop in the NW Caribbean by the weekend. However, ensembles are split as to whether this is a regeneration of Eta or a new storm."

nov02etanhc.png

nov02etasat.png

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Interesting on the 500 mb anomaly charts Jo, even today the GFS one still has a 'circle' in that area, if you look at the issue yesterday it had quite a marked circulation at 500 mb. In my memory I think it is only the second time in 12 years of daily watching these charts I have seen that. For a 'mean' chart it is very odd?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Possible Cat 4 -  "The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4 hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America." NHC 

nov02eta8.png

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Already Cat. 3.

Eta is still a small hurricane however. The big worry is that it expands in size and drops dangerous amounts of rainfall over an even larger area. I can't imagine an EWRC is far away. 

Edited by AderynCoch
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An eye is trying to open up on the visible satellite bands as it's approaching landfall.

Really surprising just how rapidly this one has intensified, faster than the forecasts could keep up with, and hot on the trail of Delta. 

Those cloud tops are still looking super cold too, it can't be too long until the land interaction starts slowing it down but it still seems to have a window to keep intensifying for a while yet.

eta 1.png

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Oh crap. Well this was unexpected 12 hours ago. 

The latest has it landfalling as a high-end cat 4 in what, surely, is one of the slowest landfalling hurricanes of that category we've seen.

This has all the potential to be utterly devastating. Worst of both possible worlds. The track has it landfalling somewhere between/over Puerto Cabezas (which was devastated by the retired Hurricane Felix) and Awastara.

Total population of the North Caribbean Autonomous Region (basically, the top-right 20% of Nicaragua) is about 500,000.

We don't retire greek names to the best of my knowledge, but if we did, this forecast is asking for such a retirement.

Edited by crimsone
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9 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Oh crap. Well this was unexpected 12 hours ago. 

The latest has it landfalling as a high-end cat 4 in what, surely, is one of the slowest landfalling hurricanes of that category we've seen.

This has all the potential to be utterly devastating. Worst of both possible worlds. The track has it landfalling somewhere between/over Puerto Cabezas (which was devastated by the retired Hurricane Felix) and Awastara.

Total population of the North Caribbean Autonomous Region (basically, the top-right 20% of Nicaragua) is about 500,000.

We don't retire greek names to the best of my knowledge, but if we did, this forecast is asking for such a retirement.

WHO have said they won't retire a greek name. It would be mentioned with any others to be retired. Grim 

These Corn Islands are the protected nature reserve out at sea, looking terribly vunerable. Devasted in Hurricane Felix. Not sure of translation, who is getting evacuated but https://twitter.com/CDNN23Nicaragua mention evacuations by military https://twitter.com/EjercitoNic/status/1323381155991818242

 

logo.gif
VIANICA.COM

 

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4 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Apparently, the community of Wawa has been evacuated, about 18km SW / SSW of Puerto Cabazas according to another tweet of theirs. Likewise, they seem to have evacuated/be evacuating/offering evacuation (to) the Miskitos people, An indigenous people for whom Awastara is a major center and historical site.

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Impressive eye on this thing. Very impressive.
And a horror show.

This is a high-end Cat 4 stalling over one of the poorest regions of the western hemisphere, prone to landslides and already subject to soil erosion, water pollution, and deforestation. 10 years ago, 80% of people survived on $2 a day, with most of the indigenous population living on only half of that.

The winds will be only half the story. When something like this stalls over central America... well, think Mitch, and pray that it's not.
 

 

Edited by crimsone
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TROPICALATLANTIC.COM

View the latest hurricane reconnaissance in the North Atlantic basin mapped in Cesium.

Recon is going in. They're currently just past the Yucatan Peninsula, heading into Eta.

I actually fancy that the storm might be jogging a little south. This is potentially good and bad. It's a little less populated further south, but on the other hand, it's harder to get to. Not that that'll make a jot of difference to the effect of the rain... but what it would do, owing to the slow forward motion of the storm and the shape of the coast, is give it a little bit longer over the water.

 

Edited by crimsone
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Presentation screams cat 5 right now, and possibly va high end one as well.

Actually not dissimilar to Goni in the WPAC last week.

May well be the 2nd ever November cat 5. Recon is in there and will let us know shortly

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6 nautical mile closed eye with a pressure of 928mb.

Maximum surface wind inbound from the north was 142.7 MpH (124 kt), but that measurement is marked as suspect data. The did find 125 kt coming out again to the NE of the eye though, and that's not marked as suspect. Rain rate of 2 inches an hour under that area.

Interestingly, they found a suspect 130kt out to the south of the eye, and likewise, a suspect 135kt. The data may be questionable, but it's still interesting.... and they're still going.

Despite the 10pm (EST) update some 45 mins ago calling it a strong CAT 4, I think I'm about ready to call this one Cat 5. It's not far from it.

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Huh. Apparently my page needed to refresh. I've missed this beauty of a vortex message (925mb, 7nm circular, closed)...

Quote

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 137kts (~ 157.7mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the SSW (193°) from the flight level center at 2:18:00Z


Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

MANY MESOVORTICES ROTATING ON INSIDE EYEWALL.

That same 0403z vortex message says:
Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 135kts (155.4mph)

Edited by crimsone
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Mission 5 into ETA was aborted just as it got to the Yucatan. Mission 4 seems to have aborted after just 2 penetrations.

I wonder if those mesovortices are the reason... just too damned dangerous, perhaps.

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8 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Terrifying. There's two inches an hour precip under parts of that. Perhaps more. And wind wise, it's a bit like a tornado so big and powerful it's turning the sky.

Bit of a nightmare forecasting-wise from here, too. The cone of uncertainty is, well, deeply uncertain.

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