The early signs of a warming climate in 1987?

[sundog]

4 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Dec 86 = 6.2c 

Dec 87 = 5.6c 

I would presume what made Dec 87  that bit cooler then 86 was because there was a fairly cold spell early in Dec 87. If I remember correctly there were a few severe frosts  during that spell.

I remember also it was forecast to become a bigger cold spell with very cold air from the east but that never materialised. It's almost as if the failure of that forecasted cold spell was a sign of things to come .

Edited October 30, 2020 by sundog

[Roger J Smith]

In eastern North America there was a marked downturn in the frequency of cold winters after a run of them in the period 1976 to 1982. The winter of 1982-83 was record-breaking for mild and snow-free conditions and is generally regarded as when the modern warmer interval began, although similar to the CET there were ups and downs through the mid-1980s and 1990s including one severely cold winter in 1993-94. 

While the greenhouse gas increase is regarded as the main cause, an increased frequency of strong El Nino events is seen as important although possibly (hard to establish) a secondary outcome of the first cause. There is also the factor that a run of strong solar cycles ended with the 1989-91 peak.

Winters 1988 to 1990 are regarded as one of the mildest three-winter sequence in the CET and also in my Toronto research, few if any three-winter sequences were milder. As I am fairly old, I can recall that there was a rapid increase in talk about "global warming" as it was first identified (climate change was a later term) in the 1980s, particularly around 1987 to 1990 which kept on setting warm weather records. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

On 28/10/2020 at 19:14, cheeky_monkey said:

December 86 was warmer than Dec 87 ...in the 1980s it was only really surpassed by Dec 88 for mild..probably the only above average month of 1986

In 1986 the final three months (October to December) were all warmer than average.  The only other month in the rest of 1986 that was just above average was June.

[North-Easterly Blast]

On 30/10/2020 at 20:42, sundog said:

I would presume what made Dec 87  that bit cooler then 86 was because there was a fairly cold spell early in Dec 87. If I remember correctly there were a few severe frosts  during that spell.

I remember also it was forecast to become a bigger cold spell with very cold air from the east but that never materialised. It's almost as if the failure of that forecasted cold spell was a sign of things to come .

I believe that December 1987 was quite cold and anticyclonic in the first half with a fair amount of surface cold (but not proper cold synoptics), but then saw a very mild second half, being particularly mild between Christmas and the New Year.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I believe that December 1987 was quite cold and anticyclonic in the first half with a fair amount of surface cold (but not proper cold synoptics), but then saw a very mild second half, being particularly mild between Christmas and the New Year.

Yes it was very mild. It felt very springlike during the Christmas period, and night time temps were very mild. 

[SLEETY]

That historic cold spell in jan 87 was like the weather gods saying  hope you enjoyed the  last 10 years or so of cold and snowy weather at times during the winter because you wont be seeing conditions similar anytime soon.And here we are 33 years later, and they were correct,like someone flipped a switch from cold to mild for the winter months.

 

Edited November 9, 2020 by SLEETY

[North-Easterly Blast]

February 1991 brought a classic cold easterly spell with widespread snow which was very similar to the January 1987 spell.  Since then only winter 2009-10 and December 2010 stand out as bringing classic cold spells - although a few years after 1991, 1995-96 brought a number of easterly spells.  The statistics clearly show up that cold winters and these sort of classic spells have certainly been few and far between in the last thirty odd years, with most winters in the UK of the last 33 years being milder than the long term average prior to that.

[sundog]

Winter 2000/01 wasnt bad compared to most winters since 87.  Great cold snap around xmas and a decent cold spell at the end of feb/ early march.  Feb 27th 2001 was the first time I think that Dublin airport had to close due to heavy snow since the cold spell of jan 87.

Not a great winter overall but I wouldn't say no to a similar winter considering many recent ones.

Edited November 10, 2020 by sundog

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 hour ago, sundog said:

Winter 2000/01 wasnt bad compared to most winters since 87.  Great cold snap around xmas and a decent cold spell at the end of feb/ early march.  Feb 27th 2001 was the first time I think that Dublin airport had to close due to heavy snow since the cold spell of jan 87.

Not a great winter overall but I wouldn't say no to a similar winter considering many recent ones.

It also snowed on the 21st March 2001 here. Not a bad little event either from what I recall.

[Geordiesnow]

End of Feb 2018- start of March bought that beast from the east with synotopics which could be described as classic with a true large scandi High and screaming easterly proper deep cold winds. Even during the December 2010 spell we did not get upper air temperatures as cold as we did during that spell of weather. 

In general though these days, getting a cold pool dropping into Scandinavia is getting rarer and rarer, it has happened at times but only 2018 was when it truly hit the UK. 

February 2005 also bought classic set ups but the cold was not what it should of been perhaps a sign of climate change or just bad luck but it still bought heavy snow mind. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

4 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

February 1991 brought a classic cold easterly spell with widespread snow which was very similar to the January 1987 spell.  Since then only winter 2009-10 and December 2010 stand out as bringing classic cold spells - although a few years after 1991, 1995-96 brought a number of easterly spells.  The statistics clearly show up that cold winters and these sort of classic spells have certainly been few and far between in the last thirty odd years, with most winters in the UK of the last 33 years being milder than the long term average prior to that.

I would personally rate Winters 2012/13 and even 2017/18 pretty highly to be honest. The former had a good cold and snowy spell nationwide in late January, and late March going into early April was one of the severest cold spells for the time of year for decades. 

The latter also had the beast from the east in late Feb into early March, aswell as another mini beast in mid March.

In this part of the country Winter 2017/18 was that bit more memorable due to benefiting from a good snow event in December as well as the later spells in Feb/March. I also saw lying snow in late December the other side of Birmingham. 

They were 5 years apart though. I hope we don't have to wait that long until the next one. It's already been nearly 3 years since the 2017/18. Maybe 2022/23 might be a good Winter then. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

17 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I would personally rate Winters 2012/13 and even 2017/18 pretty highly to be honest. The former had a good cold and snowy spell nationwide in late January, and late March going into early April was one of the severest cold spells for the time of year for decades. 

The latter also had the beast from the east in late Feb into early March, aswell as another mini beast in mid March.

In this part of the country Winter 2017/18 was that bit more memorable due to benefiting from a good snow event in December as well as the later spells in Feb/March. I also saw lying snow in late December the other side of Birmingham. 

They were 5 years apart though. I hope we don't have to wait that long until the next one. It's already been nearly 3 years since the 2017/18. Maybe 2022/23 might be a good Winter then. 

Winter 2017-18 was close to average overall rather than cold I think, as Dec 2017 was close to average, and Jan 2018 was on the mild side, with only February a colder than average month that winter, although on top March 2018 was below average as well.  In actual fact in all winters in the UK since 2012-13, only 2017-18 saw anything close to an average winter.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

37 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Winter 2017-18 was close to average overall rather than cold I think, as Dec 2017 was close to average, and Jan 2018 was on the mild side, with only February a colder than average month that winter, although on top March 2018 was below average as well.  In actual fact in all winters in the UK since 2012-13, only 2017-18 saw anything close to an average winter.

Maybe overall temperature wise it was only average. From a snow lovers perspective though living here, it was better than most. After all I had 3 seperate decent lying snow events in my back garden that extended Winter. Granted 2 of them were in Spring (only meteorologically mind). But a good 3 days or so of decent snow cover from the 10th to 13th/14th December. Plus the little bonus of seeing a covering of thin to moderate lying snow when I went round my friends house on the 28th. Then I'm sure there was the odd light flurry in January and February as well. So snow wise it was a good Winter here especially when you allow for the inclusion of March's 2 events in the overall rating.

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

  In actual fact in all winters in the UK since 2012-13, only 2017-18 saw anything close to an average winter.

What about 2014-15?  It was only 0.2C warmer than 2017-18 for CET

2014-2015 seems to be a forgotten winter 

[Sunny76]

On 09/11/2020 at 21:13, North-Easterly Blast said:

February 1991 brought a classic cold easterly spell with widespread snow which was very similar to the January 1987 spell.  Since then only winter 2009-10 and December 2010 stand out as bringing classic cold spells - although a few years after 1991, 1995-96 brought a number of easterly spells.  The statistics clearly show up that cold winters and these sort of classic spells have certainly been few and far between in the last thirty odd years, with most winters in the UK of the last 33 years being milder than the long term average prior to that.

You missed out 2008-2009, which produced a cold snowy early February spell, and some cold days in December and January.

[Relativistic]

17 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Maybe overall temperature wise it was only average. From a snow lovers perspective though living here, it was better than most. After all I had 3 seperate decent lying snow events in my back garden that extended Winter. Granted 2 of them were in Spring (only meteorologically mind). But a good 3 days or so of decent snow cover from the 10th to 13th/14th December. Plus the little bonus of seeing a covering of thin to moderate lying snow when I went round my friends house on the 28th. Then I'm sure there was the odd light flurry in January and February as well. So snow wise it was a good Winter here especially when you allow for the inclusion of March's 2 events in the overall rating.

Winter 2017/18 was a good one for snow, just not in the core Winter months of January and February. December featured a good snowfall in the Birmingham area and March was brutally cold at times, especially when you add on the wind chill. The 1st March 2018 was the fourth coldest March day for central England since 1772.

6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

What about 2014-15?  It was only 0.2C warmer than 2017-18 for CET

2014-2015 seems to be a forgotten winter 

I enjoyed this Winter. While no single snowfall was significant, there were plenty from late December through to early February. Seeing the canal near my flat frozen over in late January and early February was a regular sight.

[cheeky_monkey]

9 hours ago, Weather-history said:

What about 2014-15?  It was only 0.2C warmer than 2017-18 for CET

2014-2015 seems to be a forgotten winter 

i was back in the UK for the winters 14/15 &15/16  i saw snow fall for 10 mins in late Nov 2014... that was the only snow i saw until i went back to Canada 

Edited November 11, 2020 by cheeky_monkey

[MP-R]

10 hours ago, Weather-history said:

What about 2014-15?  It was only 0.2C warmer than 2017-18 for CET

2014-2015 seems to be a forgotten winter 

Yes I didn’t mind that winter at all. A sunny winter compared to the neighbouring ones and plenty of cold zonality in January which brought sunshine and snow shower days, as well as cold and frosty conditions throughout December and the first half of Feb. It certainly felt like a winter even without any significant snowfalls, and I didn’t benefit from the Boxing Day snowfall that places further north got.

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

You missed out 2008-2009, which produced a cold snowy early February spell, and some cold days in December and January.

Another winter I, quite fond of, not least thinking back because it heralded a run of actual winters. As well as the snow, it was nice to get a good long spell of cold, frost and fog with some light snow thrown in between Christmas and mid Jan. It was the first time since 1997 that the floating harbour in Bristol froze over.

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i was back in the UK for the winters 14/15 &15/16  i saw snow fall for 10 mins in late Nov 2014... that was the only snow i saw until i went back to Canada 

Had the Boxing Day night snow

End of January 2015 snow

 

[Methuselah]

The first time I really thought about the potential effects of climate change was between 1973 and 1977, when the diagonal 'footpath' across the local rec began to grow over... Though that could equally have been down to the sudden 'evolutionary' inability of humans to walk more than 100m at a time...?

Though that possibility never occurred to me, at the time!

Edited November 11, 2020 by General Cluster

[hillbilly]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

The first time I really thought about the potential effects of climate change was between 1973 and 1977, when the diagonal 'footpath' across the local rec began to grow over... Though that could equally have been down to the sudden 'evolutionary' inability of humans to walk more than 100m at a time...?

Though that possibility never occurred to me, at the time!

The farmer i worked for  married an Irish lady and i remember him telling me  how he informed his new wife how brutal winters were on the farm at 1200ft in the Pennines only after his wedding in 1972 he couldnt believe the first 4 winters were almost snowless until it had an abrupt change after 1976!

[hillbilly]

On 10/11/2020 at 01:39, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I would personally rate Winters 2012/13 and even 2017/18 pretty highly to be honest. The former had a good cold and snowy spell nationwide in late January, and late March going into early April was one of the severest cold spells for the time of year for decades. 

The latter also had the beast from the east in late Feb into early March, aswell as another mini beast in mid March.

In this part of the country Winter 2017/18 was that bit more memorable due to benefiting from a good snow event in December as well as the later spells in Feb/March. I also saw lying snow in late December the other side of Birmingham. 

They were 5 years apart though. I hope we don't have to wait that long until the next one. It's already been nearly 3 years since the 2017/18. Maybe 2022/23 might be a good Winter then. 

I have to agree,maybe December let them down a little but certainly for snow these extended winters both gave blizzard like conditions we hadnt seen in 2010 or indeed since 1995.The extended winter 2012/2013 really does deserve some credit and in this area have given the most air frosts since 1979  way surpassing 2009/2010

2012/2013 air frosts....70

2009/2010 air frosts ...57

[North-Easterly Blast]

15 hours ago, Weather-history said:

What about 2014-15?  It was only 0.2C warmer than 2017-18 for CET

2014-2015 seems to be a forgotten winter 

I think that although winter 2014-15 had a few cold snaps, in late December and the later part of January into early February, they were no more typical than what could be expected in an average winter and snowfall was more for favoured parts of the country rather than anything widespread, so for these reasons I think that winter 2014-15 is not remembered for being a particularly cold winter, although admittedly it was better than many winters since 2012-13.

[SortingHat]

Sorry but the early 20s beat you to the punchline!.....never mind the blog has been scrubbed along with many good websites on search engines.  Sites I used to see are gone now. Scary the levels of censorship. I didn't fully believe Google would try it's hand at the 'Ministry of Truth'.

Edited March 12, 2021 by SortingHat