November 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- the last month of this contest year

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.9C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall 33.4mm 42.1% of the monthly average.

Looking like it will be a mild but dry month. Normally when it's mild it's wet.

[Summer Sun]

9.7c to the 21st

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[Scorcher]

For someone who is not a fan of cold weather and particularly cold, wet weather, this November is about as good as it gets. I can't imagine there have been too many past Novembers that have been so mild but also pretty dry and rather sunny.

The month has been frost free here so far (looks possible the entire month will be too) and there have been a lot of very mild-feeling days.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Scorcher

[Roger J Smith]

EWP estimates are lower today with a rather dry finish now indicated. Currently around 58-59 mm, only about 10 mm average for the grid to end of the month from GFS 8.5 day map. Current projection for CET is around 8.9 C. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 hours ago, Scorcher said:

For someone who is not a fan of cold weather and particularly cold, wet weather, this November is about as good as it gets. I can't imagine there have been too many past Novembers that have been so mild but also pretty dry and rather sunny.

The month has been frost free here so far (looks possible the entire month will be too) and there have been a lot of very mild-feeling days.

predicted a dry November as soon as Boris announced whole of month lockdown, been not a normal Nov that's damn sure

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.8C, +1.0C above average, Rainfall 33.7mm 42.4% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 22nd

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[cheeky_monkey]

Cloudy Edmonton is at -6.4c to the 22nd which is 2.3c below normal...wont get any lower this month as we have an above average week coming up

Edited November 23, 2020 by cheeky_monkey

[virtualsphere]

On 22/11/2020 at 12:26, Scorcher said:

For someone who is not a fan of cold weather and particularly cold, wet weather, this November is about as good as it gets. I can't imagine there have been too many past Novembers that have been so mild but also pretty dry and rather sunny.

Conversely another wet and very dull one here.  I don't think we'll beat October for rainfall but we will come fairly close.  At the moment I've only recorded 3 dry days in Nov compared to 5 in Oct: not out of the ordinary for this time of the year in wet west Wales but we did manage 10 last Nov and even 9 in Nov 2018 despite recording an impressive 290mm rainfall that month!  Overall here in 2020 we're now past the annual rainfall total for the whole years in 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2018.  Unless Dec is very dry we'll probably end up wetter than last year also.  I'm looking forward to a pattern change later this week and a drier interlude!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.7C, Rainfall unchanged at 33.7mm 42.4% of the monthly average

A dry month guaranteed unless the cold front is more active tomorrow and a dry Autumn as well.  Autumn so far very dry, very wet, very dry

[mb018538]

11 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

Conversely another wet and very dull one here.  I don't think we'll beat October for rainfall but we will come fairly close.  At the moment I've only recorded 3 dry days in Nov compared to 5 in Oct: not out of the ordinary for this time of the year in wet west Wales but we did manage 10 last Nov and even 9 in Nov 2018 despite recording an impressive 290mm rainfall that month!  Overall here in 2020 we're now past the annual rainfall total for the whole years in 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2018.  Unless Dec is very dry we'll probably end up wetter than last year also.  I'm looking forward to a pattern change later this week and a drier interlude!

Been pretty wet in western areas - a lot of fronts seem to have stalled out west this month and got stuck rather than track east.....or when they have eventually moved east their potency has dropped markedly.

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 23rd

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[Scorcher]

7 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Been pretty wet in western areas - a lot of fronts seem to have stalled out west this month and got stuck rather than track east.....or when they have eventually moved east their potency has dropped markedly.

Must be the far west as it hasn't been wet here- around 65mm for the month so far at Rostherne near Manchester Airport.

More than some areas perhaps but below average for the wettest month of the year.

Doesn't look like we will get a lot more either before the month is out.

[JeffC]

5 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Must be the far west as it hasn't been wet here- around 65mm for the month so far at Rostherne near Manchester Airport.

More than some areas perhaps but below average for the wettest month of the year.

Doesn't look like we will get a lot more either before the month is out.

Been quite wet in the Lake District, "what's new ?" I hear you ask! Nothing really , not as wet as say 2009, but quite enough to keep the lakes well filled and to start causing concerns that Thirlmere is too high in case of a sustained period of heavy rain...

 

[Roger J Smith]

CET will obviously take a tumble, after today's hold-steady mild average near 10 may mean next report stays 9.4 or even 9.5 ... then six days left with increasing chill, GFS seems to think 4 C would be the average for the period which would result in an outcome of 8.5, but I could imagine it being a bit colder than that, then there's the downward adjustment, we may find that after all this near-record warmth, the month limps in like Nov 1978 around 8 C.  ... and Nov 1978 is not the worst case scenario for a winter analogue, neither is Nov 1946 which this month has resembled to some extent also. Looks like Earthshine and myself will be waving bye-bye to the CET around 27th-28th then a bunch at 8.5 can wave bye-bye on the 29th. Bit of an own goal situation developing here. 

As to the EWP, it's stuck around 58 mm and only shows about 5 mm average to end of month, mostly 10-20 mm amounts in the south.  So that should come in around 63 mm. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.7C +1.1C above average, Rainfall 34.3mm 42.2% of the monthly average.

The mild start here means there won't be a drop for today's average and it's unlikely the rain will be any boost.

Playing round with the figures and using the local forecast for temperatures leaves us on 7.9C for the month +1.1C above normal. So will need freezing fog to stick around all day to get it near average I guess. So I mild dry month will end up in the record books here.

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 24th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.7C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall at 35mm 44% of the monthly average.

With the cold spell downgraded to a cool spell probably will be on the +8.xC range by the months end.

 

[Summer Sun]

9.3c to the 25th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.6C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 35mm 44.1% off the monthly average.

A little rain likely overnight tonight but won't make much of a dint by the sounds of in rainfall totals.

[Summer Sun]

9.2c to the 26th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.4C +1.2C above normal, Rainfall unchanged.

[damianslaw]

A very mild November on the cards, will it go into the 8s quite probably but still 2 degrees above the 61-90 average. I was way off with my projection, influenced strongly by other forecasts suggesting La Nina would result in a mid Atlantic high funneling down NW and incursions, alas that didn't happen and we have seen southerly and sw airflow dominate until very recently. 

 

[Roger J Smith]

I see there was no update of CET earlier, still listed as 9.2 to 26th, but feel confident it would have been 9.0 to 27th, which is

2.0 above 1981-2010

2.5 above 1961-1990 average.

The EWP is 62 mm and looks to add only 1 or 2 mm at the most before our provisional estimate. I did the scoring based on 64 mm and won't spoil the surprise but four have moved into very close proximity to the lead as the previous 3rd and 4th have higher scores than the previous 2nd, who has a higher score than the previous first. All will be revealed when I have the final number. 

Best combined forecast could very well be your obd't servant. 

[Dancerwithwings]

This must be a record, I believe out of 68 entries there are around 60 guesses that could be more than a degree out.

Mines woeful as it could be more than 3 degrees out ....shocking