Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

November 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- the last month of this contest year


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    __________________ _ _ _ 

    This month is the final stage of the 2019-20 competition year. CET November historical information in part 1 below, EWP in part two. Good luck !!

     

    C.E.T. forecast competition -- averages and extremes for November

    15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)
    14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)


    10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994

     9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011
     9.5 ... tied third warmest Nov 1818 and 2015
     9.4 ... fifth warmest Nov 1938
     9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743

     9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730

     9.1 ... eighth warmest Nov 1817

     8.9 ... ninth warmest Nov 1881 

     8.7 ... tied tenth warmest Nov 1939 and 2009

     8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2014 (with 1821)

     8.5 ... ... ... ... 2002

     8.4 ... ... ... ... 1997

     8.3 ... ... ... ... 2018

     8.2 ... ... ... ...

     8.1 ... ... ... ... 2003, 2006

     8.0 ... ... ... ... 1982, 1984

     7.9 ... ... ... ... 1999 

     7.8 ... ... ... ... 1981, 1986

     7.7 ... ... ... ... 1995, 2004

     7.6 ... ... ... ...

     7.5 ... ... ... ... 1983, 2001  ... ... ... ---- average of 2001-2019 ---- 

     7.4 ... ... ... ... 1992 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1991-2019 ---- ...  ---- average of 1990-2019 ----

     7.3 ... ... ... ... 2007 ... ... ... ... ......

     7.2 ... ... ... ... 

     7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ---- average of 1981-2010 ----

     7.0 ... ... ... ... 2000, 2008

     6.9 ... ... ... ... 1990 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1971-2000 ----

     6.8 ... ... ... ... 1991, 2012, 2017

     6.7 ... ... ... ...

     6.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1961-1990 ----

     6.5 ... ... ... ... 1987 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1901-2000 ----

     6.4 ... ... ... ...

     6.3 ... ... ... ...

     6.2 ... ... ... ... 1989, 1998, 2005, 2013, 2019

     6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of all years 1659-2019 ---- (6.08)

     6.0 ... ... ... ...

     5.9 ... ... ... ... 1996 ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1801-1900 ----

     5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......   ---- average of 1701-1800 ----

     5.6 ... ... ... ... 2016 ... ... ...... ...  ---- average of 1659-1700 ----

     5,2 .... coldest since 1993 were  1988, 2010 (tied 90th coldest)

     4.6 .... coldest since 1985 was 1993 (tied 52nd coldest)

     4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985

     3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923

     3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910

     3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851

     3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684
     2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807
     2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915
     2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

    --0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)

    --2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
    --4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904)
    __________________________________________________
    colour coded warmest, average and coldest since 1981 -- (colour option unavailable at posting time, will add it later if possible, for now the warmest 13 are bold type, the more average 14 are italic type, and the coldest 12 are underlined).


    daily records are for the period 1772 to 2019
     

    monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2019

    Enter your CET forecast by Saturday, October 31st at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of November.

    ===============================================================================

    (2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest -- November 2020

    __ contest is scored using Hadley EWP data __

    __ winter month snowfall is converted by liquid equivalent, roughly 10:1 reduction factor, e.g. 10 cm snow = 10 mm precip __

     

    202.5 mm __ 1852 _ wettest 1766-2019 ... also second wettest month to Oct 1903

    200.8 mm __ 1770 _ 2nd wettest ... also third wettest month overall

    196.5 mm __ 1940 _ wettest of 20th century... 1929 had 195.9 mm

    192.1 mm __ 2009 _ wettest since 1981

    110.2 mm __ 1925-54 highest 30-year average for Nov (since 1766-95)

    106.2 mm __ mean for 1990-2019 ... 

    100.4 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

     93.9 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2019

     76.9 mm __ 1845-74 lowest 30-year average for Nov (since 1766-95)

     50.2 mm __ 1988 _ driest since 1981 

     23.1 mm ___1805 _  second driest 1766-2019

     17.0 mm ___1945 _ driest 1766-2019 

    ___________________________ ** __________________________

    Recent November EWP  ... 11-year average is 113.9 mm ... :

    2019 _ 138.1 mm

    2018 _ 104.9 ... ... 2017 _ 81.0 ... ... 2016 _ 116.6 ... ... 2015 _ 126.7 ... ... 2014 _ 126.8

    2013 _ 79.2 ... ... 2012 _ 135.8 ... ... 2011 _ 52.9 ... ... 2010 _ 97.5 ... ... 2009 _ 192.1

    >>> Enter your EWP forecast in mm with your CET forecast, same deadlines 

    Good luck in this final contest of the current competition year. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 234
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    He beat everybody in Dec 2015 and in fact (sit down while reading this) predicted a CET value below the outcome. 

    Overall Some movement in the Top 5. Man With Beard 5th from joint 3rd. Don 4th from joint 3rd. Stationary Front 3rd from 2nd. The PIT 2nd from 6th No change at the top with mb0185

    CET will obviously take a tumble, after today's hold-steady mild average near 10 may mean next report stays 9.4 or even 9.5 ... then six days left with increasing chill, GFS seems to think 4 C would b

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    5.4°C and 83.6mm for me please. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    6.1C and 98.2mm please 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    6.7c & 94mm please.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    Rest in pieces naff "autumn" 2020!  13C  image.png.6d653a709a294837f81396932b80a80d.png  Last sub 3C November in 1915.  Last sub 4C November in 1925.  Last sub 5C November in 1993.  Last sub 6C November in 2016.

    200mm of Atlantic garbage

    Edited by Lettucing Gutted
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke

    Gonna have a way out there pint instead of normal safe guess.

    Colder than average 5.5c

    Very wet, nearly as wet as 2009.  180mm.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    7.6 and 82mm for me plse 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Atlantic to dominate, low pressure all the way, few 'named' storms too

    9.4C ,194mm

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    6.1 deg C and 123 mm please

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

    7.2c 100mm

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Will also go for 7.2*C please and 55mm of rain. Probably getting chillier as the months progresses with some Atlantic blocking

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    7.0c and 100mm thank you please

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, preferably thunderstorms, cold and bad weather.
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.

    6.7°C, 89.0mm please.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny weather, thunderstorms
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks

    6.1°C and 175mm

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Held off a week ago when modelling was more uncertain but a finish very close to average is highly likely now. 

    Of my two methods one suggests 7.1C, the other is rather cold (5.7C). I shall allow the later to influence my prediction but in a tempered manner. 

    My prediction is 6.6C, 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average, 90mm.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    6.8c  and 80mm for me please. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...