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November 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- the last month of this contest year


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__________________ _ _ _ 

This month is the final stage of the 2019-20 competition year. CET November historical information in part 1 below, EWP in part two. Good luck !!

 

C.E.T. forecast competition -- averages and extremes for November

15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)
14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)


10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994

 9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011
 9.5 ... tied third warmest Nov 1818 and 2015
 9.4 ... fifth warmest Nov 1938
 9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743

 9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730

 9.1 ... eighth warmest Nov 1817

 8.9 ... ninth warmest Nov 1881 

 8.7 ... tied tenth warmest Nov 1939 and 2009

 8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2014 (with 1821)

 8.5 ... ... ... ... 2002

 8.4 ... ... ... ... 1997

 8.3 ... ... ... ... 2018

 8.2 ... ... ... ...

 8.1 ... ... ... ... 2003, 2006

 8.0 ... ... ... ... 1982, 1984

 7.9 ... ... ... ... 1999 

 7.8 ... ... ... ... 1981, 1986

 7.7 ... ... ... ... 1995, 2004

 7.6 ... ... ... ...

 7.5 ... ... ... ... 1983, 2001  ... ... ... ---- average of 2001-2019 ---- 

 7.4 ... ... ... ... 1992 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1991-2019 ---- ...  ---- average of 1990-2019 ----

 7.3 ... ... ... ... 2007 ... ... ... ... ......

 7.2 ... ... ... ... 

 7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ---- average of 1981-2010 ----

 7.0 ... ... ... ... 2000, 2008

 6.9 ... ... ... ... 1990 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1971-2000 ----

 6.8 ... ... ... ... 1991, 2012, 2017

 6.7 ... ... ... ...

 6.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1961-1990 ----

 6.5 ... ... ... ... 1987 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1901-2000 ----

 6.4 ... ... ... ...

 6.3 ... ... ... ...

 6.2 ... ... ... ... 1989, 1998, 2005, 2013, 2019

 6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of all years 1659-2019 ---- (6.08)

 6.0 ... ... ... ...

 5.9 ... ... ... ... 1996 ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1801-1900 ----

 5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......   ---- average of 1701-1800 ----

 5.6 ... ... ... ... 2016 ... ... ...... ...  ---- average of 1659-1700 ----

 5,2 .... coldest since 1993 were  1988, 2010 (tied 90th coldest)

 4.6 .... coldest since 1985 was 1993 (tied 52nd coldest)

 4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985

 3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923

 3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910

 3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851

 3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684
 2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807
 2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915
 2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

--0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)

--2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
--4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904)
__________________________________________________
colour coded warmest, average and coldest since 1981 -- (colour option unavailable at posting time, will add it later if possible, for now the warmest 13 are bold type, the more average 14 are italic type, and the coldest 12 are underlined).


daily records are for the period 1772 to 2019
 

monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2019

Enter your CET forecast by Saturday, October 31st at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of November.

===============================================================================

(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest -- November 2020

__ contest is scored using Hadley EWP data __

__ winter month snowfall is converted by liquid equivalent, roughly 10:1 reduction factor, e.g. 10 cm snow = 10 mm precip __

 

202.5 mm __ 1852 _ wettest 1766-2019 ... also second wettest month to Oct 1903

200.8 mm __ 1770 _ 2nd wettest ... also third wettest month overall

196.5 mm __ 1940 _ wettest of 20th century... 1929 had 195.9 mm

192.1 mm __ 2009 _ wettest since 1981

110.2 mm __ 1925-54 highest 30-year average for Nov (since 1766-95)

106.2 mm __ mean for 1990-2019 ... 

100.4 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

 93.9 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2019

 76.9 mm __ 1845-74 lowest 30-year average for Nov (since 1766-95)

 50.2 mm __ 1988 _ driest since 1981 

 23.1 mm ___1805 _  second driest 1766-2019

 17.0 mm ___1945 _ driest 1766-2019 

___________________________ ** __________________________

Recent November EWP  ... 11-year average is 113.9 mm ... :

2019 _ 138.1 mm

2018 _ 104.9 ... ... 2017 _ 81.0 ... ... 2016 _ 116.6 ... ... 2015 _ 126.7 ... ... 2014 _ 126.8

2013 _ 79.2 ... ... 2012 _ 135.8 ... ... 2011 _ 52.9 ... ... 2010 _ 97.5 ... ... 2009 _ 192.1

>>> Enter your EWP forecast in mm with your CET forecast, same deadlines 

Good luck in this final contest of the current competition year. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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He beat everybody in Dec 2015 and in fact (sit down while reading this) predicted a CET value below the outcome. 

CET will obviously take a tumble, after today's hold-steady mild average near 10 may mean next report stays 9.4 or even 9.5 ... then six days left with increasing chill, GFS seems to think 4 C would b

9.7c to the 21st 2.8c above the 61 to 90 average 2.0c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st Current low this month 8.6c on

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Rest in pieces naff "autumn" 2020!  13C  image.png.6d653a709a294837f81396932b80a80d.png  Last sub 3C November in 1915.  Last sub 4C November in 1925.  Last sub 5C November in 1993.  Last sub 6C November in 2016.

200mm of Atlantic garbage

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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Held off a week ago when modelling was more uncertain but a finish very close to average is highly likely now. 

Of my two methods one suggests 7.1C, the other is rather cold (5.7C). I shall allow the later to influence my prediction but in a tempered manner. 

My prediction is 6.6C, 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average, 90mm.

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