November 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- the last month of this contest year

[J10]

Seasonal

A bit of a turnaround with davehsug winning after being 13th last month.

 Mr Maunder rose to 2nd from 8th with sundog 3rd from 2nd.

Previous leader Man With Beard came in a very respectable 5th.

It would have been even more of a convincing win for davehsug if it wasn't for the 5pt penalty this month.

Edited December 3, 2020 by J10

[J10]

Overall

Some movement in the Top 5.

Man With Beard 5th from joint 3rd.
Don 4th from joint 3rd.
Stationary Front 3rd from 2nd.
The PIT 2nd from 6th

No change at the top with mb018538 a well deserved winner.

Full Top 10

Summary Sheet PDF November 20 Summary.pdf

Excel spreadsheet November 20 CET.xlsx

Thanks to all players this year and to Roger helping with the competition.

Edited December 3, 2020 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Combined CET and EWP annual ranks

The EWP ranks in this table are now adjusted after a larger than usual shift from November EWP tracker to final posted amount confirmed on 5th.

The CET ranks in this table are direct from the excel file in the above link from J10. For those who do not appear in the main rankings table (due to

missing 2 or more months) I have compared the total score in the secondary table and assigned a decimal rank between established table ranks.

This applies to several who played 6-10 months in both contests and scored relatively high in the EWP rankings. Also, if a CET forecaster has no

EWP entries, or a much smaller number of them, I show them in this combined table at their CET ranking position. An EWP rank in brackets (for

example sundog) means that the forecaster had a small number of EWP entries, established that ranking, but it's not applied to the standings here.

The table has two columns, the left column contains all forecasters with rankings in both contests, the right column contains those who are either

CET only, CET mainly, or too few CET to rank there (using my substitute method as explained above).

Rank xxx means not part of the table ranking, just shown for relative CET position.

 

Rank __ CET _ EWP __ avg ___ Forecaster _______________ Rank __ CET __ EWP __ avg ___ Forecaster

_01 ____ 01 __ 03 ___ 02.0 _____ mb018538 _____________ 

_02 ____ 08 __ 01 ___ 04.5 _____ Mulzy ___________________ xxx ____ 05 __ ---- ___ ---- ___ Man With Beard

_03 ____ 03 __ 08 ___ 05.5 _____ Stationary Front _________xxx ____ 06 __ ---- ___ ---- ___ dancerwithwings

_04 ____ 07 __ 07 ___ 07.0 _____ Reef _____________________ xxx ____ 09 __(104)__ ---- _____ sundog (1 EWP fcst)

_05 ____ 04 __ 11 ___ 07.5 _____ Don _____________________

_06 ____ 13 __ 10 ___ 11.5 _____ DR(S)NO __________________ xxx ____ 11 __ ---- ___ ---- ___ Summer Sun

_07 ____ 02 __ 24 ___ 13.0 _____ The PIT __________________ xxx ____ 15 __ ---- ___ ---- ___ damianslaw

_08 ____ 10 __ 20 ___ 15.0 _____ February 1978^__________

_09 ____ 19 __ 16 ___ 17.5 _____ General Cluster __________ 

_10t____ 14 __ 23 ___ 18.5 _____ DAVID SNOW ______________ 

_10t____ 35 __ 02 ___ 18.5 _____ Godber 1 _________________

_12 ____ 20 __ 21 ___ 20.5 _____ Feb1991Blizzard __________ 

_13 ____ 25 __ 19 ___ 22.0 _____ Born From the Void ______ 

_14t____ 16 __ 29 ___ 22.5 _____ davehsug _________________ xxx ____ 22 __ ---- ___ ---- ___ Mark Bayley___ 

_14t____ 18 __ 27 ___ 22.5 _____ snowray __________________

_14t____ 12 __ 33 ___ 22.5 _____ Mr Maunder _____________

_16t____ 24 __ 22 ___ 23.0 _____ virtualsphere ____________ 

_18 ____ 31 __ 16 ___ 23.5 _____ weather26 _______________ 19 ____(10.5)_ 38 __ (24.3) __ Diagonal Red Line^^^

_20 ____ 17 __ 33 ___ 25.0 _____ timmytour _______________ 

_21 ____ 36 __ 17 ___ 26.5 _____ Emmett Garland __________

_22t____ 49 __ 05 ___ 27.0 _____ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______ 

_22t____ 50 __ 04 ___ 27.0 _____ Twilight __________________

_22t____ 28 __ 26 ___ 27.0 _____ J10 _____________________ 

_22t____ 48 __ 06 ___ 27.0 _____ bobd29 ____________

_26 ____ 46 __ 09 ___ 27.5 _____ Roger J Smith ____________ 

_27t____ 45 __ 13 ___ 29.0 _____ daniel* __________________ 

_27t____ 27 __ 31 ___ 29.0 _____ Relativistic^ ____________  xxx ____ 32 __ ---- ___ ---- ___ Duncan McAlister

_27t____ 33 __ 25 ___ 29.0 _____ SteveB __________________ (40) ____(36.5) _ 38 __(37.3) ___ Earthshine (9,8)

_27t____ 40 __ 18 ___ 29.0 _____ Dog Toffee ______________  xxx ____ 43 __ ---- ___ ---- ___ Walsall Wood Snow

_31 ____ 23 __ 38 ___ 30.5 _____ brmbrmcar^^ ___________ (42) ___ (31.5) _ 46 __ 38.8 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers (7, 7)

_32 ____ 26 __ 36 ___ 31.0 _____ weather-history _________ (44) __ (21.5) _ 58 __ 39.8 ___ Kentspur (4, 4)

_33 ____ 51 __ 14 ___ 32.5 _____  Jeff C ___________________

_34t____ 34 __ 32 ___ 33.0 _____ seaside 60 ______________ (48) ___ 37 __ 52 ___ 44.5 _____ Summer Blizzard (12,8 )

_34t____ 55 __ 11 ___ 33.0 _____ jonboy^ _________________

_36 ____ 39 __ 28 ___ 33.5 _____ CheesepuffScott _________(49) ___ (32.5) _ 57 __ 44.8 ___ stewfox (8,8 )

_37t____ 29 __ 42 ___ 35.5 _____ stargazer^^ ______________(50) ___ (39.5) _ 51 __ (45.3) ___ 2010cold (6, 6)

_37t____ 21 __ 50 ___ 35.5 _____ Norrance^ _______________ (52) __ (31.5) _ 62 __ 46.8 ____ Leo97t (6, 6)

_39 ____ 38 __ 35 ___ 36.5 _____ Syed2878^________________ (53) __ (51.5) _ 45 ___ 48.3 ____ B87 (9, 8 ) 

_41 ____ 47 __ 30 ___ 38.5 _____ Midlands Ice Age _________ (54) __ (39.5) _ 64 __ 51.8 ____ Joneseye (4, 4)

_43 ____ 30 __ 48 ___ 39.0 _____ Kirkcaldy Weather^_______ (55) __ (55.5) _ 49 ___ 52.3 ____ SLEETY (8, 8 )

_45 ____ 41 __ 39 ___ 40.0 _____ I Remember Atlantic 252^_(56t) __ (54.5) _  53 __ 53.8 ____ Let it Snow! (8, 8 ) 

_46 ____ 42 __ 41 ___ 41.5 _____ Neil N ______________________(56t) __ (52.5) _ 55 __ 53.8 ____ freeze (6, 6)

_47 ____ 44 __ 43 ___ 43.5 _____ prolongedSnowLover^^ ___ (58t) __ (53.5) _ 56 __ 54.8 ____ Summer Shower (6, 6)

_50 ____ 52 __ 40 ___ 46.0 _____ Polar Gael^ _________________(58t) __ (55.5) _ 54 __ 54.8 ____ Robbie Garrett (5, 5)

_55 ____ 53 __ 47 ___ 50.0 _____ Shillitocettwo^^ ____________ (60) __ (53.5) _ 60 __ 56.8 ____ pegg24 (5, 5)

_61 ____ 56 __ 73 ___ 64.5 _____ Lettucing Gutted ___________ (62) __ (55.5) _ 75 __ 65.5 ____ Thundershine (8, 8 )

______________________________________________________________________________________________

^ one month missed __ ^^ two months missed ___ ^^^ three months missed

For those who played 4 to 8 contests, numbers in brackets after forecaster name states how many contests entered,

with the order CET contests, EWP contests. Some CET players who entered 4-8 and did not enter any EWP are not listed.

=============================

Congrats to mb018538 for best combined ranking, followed by Mulzy and a tight cluster of three --

Stationary Front, Reef and Don. All were in top 12 of both contests. DR(S)NO close behind at 13, 10.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Man With Beard]

Congratulations @mb018538, a well deserved winner and a real asset to the forum

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Congratulations @mb018538, a well deserved winner and a real asset to the forum

Cheers @Man With Beard

I'd like to thank my sponsors, my fans, all the people who made this possible 

It's the first time I've ever entered the comp in all my years on the forum! To finish 1st in the CET and 3rd in the rainfall is pretty good going! I like to think I've got a pretty decent eye for what's going on (generally) which is why I've been consistently predicting the right sort of CET. I try not to be biased in what's showing.
The only bad month was November where I was 1.8c out and got duped like everyone else that a cold month was incoming!

Ironically I've actually forgotten to enter the December comp, so I'm out of the picture of 2021 already! Maybe I'll just be a one hit wonder like Chesney Hawkes 
 

[summer blizzard]

31st of those who entered all 12 months, painful.

[Weather-history]

The link with 2004 was less notable with November although they were both milder and drier than average months.

 

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP final number is posted, and it's a larger change than usual from the tracker, up to 67.4 mm (from 62 mm).

This is going to require some work on the scoring so stand by for the final confirmed results ...

in the annual contest, the top three as earlier announced remain in same order, all dropping about the same number of points in the re-ordering, also no changes to 4, 5, 6 places Twilight, Blast from the Past and Bobd29, then 7, 8 trade places (Reef now 7th, myself now in 9th with Stationary Front moving up to 8th after taking over second top score for November), a scrambling of the positions from 9 to 12 which had been separated by small margins, and a few other changes along the way to the secure bottom ranks. 

I will go into the relevant post back a few days and edit in the new results, and change the combined CET-EWP post above to reflect these changes. 

Best combined forecast for November remains the same but my EWP position slipped from 3rd to 8th, so 3rd + 8th = 11 total ranks, Earthshine moves up to second best combined ranks, 14th CET and now 7th EWP for 21 combined. 

By noon today I should have those tables edited to reflect these slight changes to the EWP scoring.

The new top five scores for November are from Weather26 (68.3 mm) Stationary Front (67 mm), SLEETY (70 mm), CheesepuffScott (71 mm) and 2010cold (62.2 mm). 

So it's official now, the top ten in the annual contest are

MULZY

GODBER.1

MB018538

TWILIGHT

BLAST from the PAST 

BOBD29

REEF

STATIONARY FRONT

ROGER J SMITH 

DR(S)NO

and 11-20 are Jonboy, Don, daniel*, weather26, JeffC, General Cluster, Emmett Garland, Dog Toffee, Born from the Void, and February1978 with Feb1991Blizzard, virtualsphere and DAVID SNOW marginally behind now (basically the forecasts lower than 65 mm suffered a hit in the standings, those above but not far above got a boost).

 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Dancerwithwings]

I was tops for many a month *spring/summer*  but autumn was a disaster for me, especially November (but I wasn’t the only one ) Oh well 6th is my best yet .....Congratulations @mb018538

[Roger J Smith]

All scoring details including a new feature, all-time total scoring (ranked) can be seen in the attached file.

It says "EWP OCT" but disregard that file name, it's the annual summary including NOV. 

EWP201920OCT.xlsx