November 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- the last month of this contest year

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.2C +1.1C above normal, Rainfall up to 38.1mm 48% of the monthly average.

Looks like we will finish on 8.1C +1.3C above normal sneaking into our top ten of warmest Novembers on Record.

[summer blizzard]

I'm just glad I never followed my analogue package, the mean was in the 5C range.

[Summer Sun]

No update again today

[Roger J Smith]

Yesterday was generally around a 6 average I think, so the running CET is probably at 8.9 after 28 days. It is going to finish around 8.7 pre-adjustment, then they will notice what that means and adjust it big time.

 

[Roger J Smith]

14 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

This must be a record, I believe out of 68 entries there are around 60 guesses that could be more than a degree out.

Mines woeful as it could be more than 3 degrees out ....shocking

Not a record, I think March 2013 had no forecasts within 1.0 and Dec 2015 had one. 

Also I am expecting a rather big downward correction so the three 8.5s are probably looking good at this point, it may finish provisionally near my guess of 8.7 but that won't be tolerated at Hadley, one of the Unwritten Rules. 

[Summer Sun]

No update again today

[Roger J Smith]

I would estimate we are at 8.8 after 29 days and today won't change that very much but at this rate we're going to get the adjusted final value before we see any estimated CET values for past few days so by then they will be of only academic interest. The EWP is stuck at 62 mm although it is at least updating. 

Re the discussion of errors in past months, I found the March 2013 thread and the closest forecast was 4.7 C (2.0 too high) from Barry. There were a number at 4.9 including Relativistic. The general trend of the forecasts was a bit lower than average but few seemed to sense what was coming, it didn't really turn cold until about the 10th then it stayed exceptionally cold all through the second half of the month. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP looks like it will finish near 63 mm, will show what this means for the annual scoring after they confirm a value tomorrow.

Four forecasters finished very close at the top of the standings (62 to 65 mm won't change this result).

No sign of movement on CET values yet. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Strangely, the daily values have been confirmed up to the 26th, and are at 9.0C (8.954).  It also confirms a new daily record for the 18th (12.8C)
If someone can give me a rough estimate of the range of CET values the last 4 days, I can probably narrow down the final figure to within half a degree or so.

Edited December 1, 2020 by BornFromTheVoid

[Roger J Smith]

I just noticed that also, expect the final value to be around 8.4 or 8.5 as the last four days will be something like 4, 5, 7, 7. 

(26*8.95 + 23) / 30 = 255.7/30 = 8.5

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Assuming that actual daily values will be +/- 1.5C your estimates, RJS, that gives a range of 8.3C to 8.7C.

[Roger J Smith]

(edit for adjusted EWP 67.4 mm)

The EWP finished on 62 mm on the Hadley tracker but the posted value on the 5th was 67.4 mm.  This resulted in some changes to the tables below. 

(note, rank for average error in the annual contest is among the 53 who entered 8 to 12 contests).

_____ NOVEMBER contest results for 67.4 mm _______ ANNUAL contest results based on Nov scoring

Rank _ Forecaster __ Fcst ______ Error ___ Points ______ Rank _ Forecaster _ Total Pts _ avg error (mm) __

01 __ weather26 ___ 68.3 mm ___+0.9_____10.00_______ 01 __ Mulzy _________ 80.22 ____ 30.45 (2nd)

02 __ Stationary Front _ 66.0 mm ___-1.4 _____ 9.82 _______ 02 __ Godber1 ______ 79.62 ____ 30.12 (1st)

03 __ SLEETY ________ 70.0 mm ___+2.6 _____ 9.64_______ 03 __ mb018538 ____ 80.30 ____ 31.87 (6th)

04 __ CheesepuffScott _71.0 mm ___+3.6 _____9.46 _______04 __ Twilight _______77.18 ____ 34.78 (11th)

05 ___2010 cold _____ 62.2 mm___-5.2 _____ 9.29 _______05 _ BlastFromThePast_76.63 ____ 32.78 (7th)

06 __ Mulzy __________62.0 mm___-5.4 _____ 9.12 _______06 __ bobd29 _______ 72.24 ____ 34.59 (10th)

07 __ Earthshine ____ 73.0 mm___+5.6 _____ 8.94 _______ 07 __ Reef __________ 70.99 ____ 35.15 (13th)

08 __ Roger J Smith _ 61.2 mm ___--6.2_____ 8.76 _______ 08 __Stationary Front __70.27 ____ 34.53 (9th)

09 __ February1978 _ 74.0 mm ___+6.6_____ 8.58 _______ 09 __ Roger J Smith _ 70.08 ____ 36.53 (19th)

10 __ Feb91Blizzard_ 60.0 mm ___--7.4 _____ 8.40 _______10 __ DR(S)NO ________ 69.63 ____ 30.79 (4th)

11 __ daniel* ___ (2)>_60.0 mm___--7.4 _____ 8.32 _______11 __jonboy^ ________ 69.58 ____ 30.71 (3rd)

12 __ wx-history (3)>_ 60.0 mm___ -7.4 _____ 8.24 _______12 __ Don ____________69.10 ____ 35.22 (14th)

13 _ jonboy __________ 75.0 mm ___ +7.6 ____ 7.87________13 __ daniel* ________ 68.97 ____ 33.87 (8th)

14 __ mb018538 ____ 58.0 mm ____ -9.4 ____ 7.89 _______ 14 __ weather26 _____68.68 ____ 35.45 (16th)

15 _ timmytour _____ 57.0 mm ____-10.4 ____ 7.51 _______15 __ Jeff C ___________67.55 ____ 37.05 (23rd)

16 __seaside 60 _____ 78.0 mm____+10.6 ____7.33 _______ 16 __General Cluster__67.23 ____ 36.38 (17th)

17 __ booferking ____ 56.0 mm ___ -11.4 ____ 7.15 _______17 __Emmett Garland_66.33 ____ 37.74 (25th)

18 __ DiagonalRedLine _55.0 mm ____-12.4 ____ 6.97 _______18 __Dog Toffee _____ 64.51 ____ 36.50 (19th)

19 __ BlastFromThePast(2)>55.0 mm_-12.4 ____6.89 ________19 _ BornFromTheVoid_64.26 ____38.55 (28th)

20 __ Godber 1 __ (3)> 55.0 mm __-12.4 ____ 6.81 ________20 __February1978^___ 64.20 ____ 35.09 (12th)

21 __ virtualsphere __ 80.0 mm __+12.6 ____ 6.43 ________21 __Feb1991Blizzard_ 63.30 ____ 38.10 (t25th)

22 __ sundog ____ (2)> 80.0 mm __+12.6 ____ 6.35 _______ 22 __virtualsphere ____63.24 ____ 37.00 (22nd)

23 __ The PIT ____ (3)> 80.0 mm __-12.4 ____ 6.27 ________23 __DAVID SNOW ______ 61.59 ____ 38.12 (27th)

24 __ DR(S)NO ____ (4)> 80.0 mm __-12.4 ____ 6.19 ________24 __The PIT ___________60.17 ____ 38.10 (t25th)

25 __ Relativistic _ (5)> 80.0 mm __-12.4 ____ 6.11 ________25 __SteveB ___________ 59.06 ____ 39.22 (31st)

26 __ Relativistic _ (5)> 80.0 mm __-12.4 ____ 6.11 ________26 __ J 10 ______________59.00 ____ 39.50 (32nd)

27 __ Relativistic _ (5)> 80.0 mm __-12.4 ____ 6.11 ________27 __snowray _________ 58.77 ____ 39.52 (33rd)

28 __ Relativistic _ (5)> 80.0 mm __-12.4 ____ 6.11 ________28 __CheesepuffScott __57.96____ 39.92 (37th)

29 __ Relativistic _ (5)> 80.0 mm __-12.4 ____ 6.11 ________29 __davehsug ________ 59.06 ____ 41.68 (40th)

30 __ Relativistic _ (5)> 80.0 mm __-12.4 ____ 6.11 ________30 __Midlands Ice Age__59.06 ____ 39.87 (36th)

 

___________________________________________________________________________________

^ Jonboy, February1978 _ entered 11/12 contests. 

_ top 30 average errors not already in table ... Earthshine 5th 31.81 mm (8 of 12 played), 

__ brmbrmcar 15th 35.62 mm (10 entered), syed2878 18th 36.49 mm (11 entered) and

___ I Remember Atlantic 252 at 36.80 mm was 21st (11 entered), Relativistic 29th 38.69 mm (11 entered).

_____ stargazer 30th 39.05 mm (10 entered).

... 31 to 60 in annual scoring are ... 31 Relativistic, 32 seaside60, 33 MrMaunder, 34 syed2878, 35 timmytour,

36 weather-history, 37 Earthshine (from 8 entries), 38 brmbrmcar, 39 I Remember Atlantic 252, 40 Polar Gael,

41 NeilN, 42 stargazer, 43prolongedSnowLover, 44 DiagonalRedLine, 45 B87, 46 Thundery Wintry Showers,

47 shillitocettwo, 48 Kirkcaldy Weather, 49 SLEETY, 50 Norrance, 51 2010cold, 52 summer blizzard, 53 Let It Snow

54 Robbie Garrett, 55 Freeze, 56 summer shower, 57 stewfox, 58 Kentspur, 59 Radiating Dendrite, 60 pegg24 ...

you can check the details when I post the excel file, and that takes us to almost the end of active participants,

with about 83 more mostly one or two entry scores, and Lettucing Gutted (73rd), and Thundershine (75th) who

were playing some fairly improbable numbers most months. Joneseye had four entries, finished 64th. Average

error of 28.5 mm was better than any regular entrant. 2010cold had an average of 25.62 mm for six contests.

______________________________________________

Will eventually expand the above and attach the finished version of the excel file for scoring. 

Here's the top ten for the autumn portion of our EWP contest:

1. 2010cold 27.81 ... 2. daniel* 27.13 ... 3. mb018538 26.32 ... 4 Mulzy 24.89 ... 5. Stationary Front 23.35

6. weather26 23.07 ... 7. Earthshine 22.79 ... 8. DR(S)NO 22.33 ... 9. BFTP 21.40 ... 10. CheesepuffScott 20.91

Those first two are the two top seasonal scores in all four seasons too (Robbie Garrett winter 26.75). 

_________________________________________________________________

(2010cold joined the contest at the halfway point and if total score is doubled, it is close to the 4th place finisher.

Average error for six forecasts was only 25.62 mm but then many of us ran up large errors in February so a

direct comparison is not valid, still that is as good an average as anyone has had in the last six contests.

________________________________________________

 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[mb018538]

Met office provisional for England is 8.4c

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 8.1C +1.3C above normal and rainfall 38.4mm 48.4% of the monthly average.

[Stationary Front]

8.5 showing on Hadobs

[summer blizzard]

Upward adjustment?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yep, final values have updated.

November had 20 days above the 81-10 average and 10 days below.
4 days were in the top 5 warmest and 1 days was the warmest on record,  the 18th.

Below is the daily mean for November compared to the 81-10 average, max, min, top 5 and bottom 5 values.

The same as above, but for the year so far.

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Upward adjustment?

Downward, 8.70 to 8.51C

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 8.5c November 2020 shares the same mean CET with November's:

1899

1951

1953

1978

2002

[DAVID SNOW]

3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Downward, 8.70 to 8.51C

Was exactly my numbers to.

[NeilN]

1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

At 8.5c November 2020 shares the same mean CET with November's:

1899

1951

1953

1978

2002

The omens are there with one year

[Roger J Smith]

Three forecasters hit 8.5 on the nose, here's the top CET forecasts for November (to be confirmed by J10 in his scoring posts) ... have listed these in order without moving anyone for late penalties but after studying how the CET scoring works, late penalties have the effect of dropping a player down in the seasonal or annual contests by about 1 to 2 ranks a day late, so for my "best combined" I now apply that correction, which would explain what may seem like a discrepancy in that part of the report below the top ten. 

Rank __ Forecaster _____________________ Fcst __ Error ___ EWP (rank)

_01 __ syed2878 ( 25 ) ________________ 8.5____0.0______105.0 (46)

_02 __ Duncan McAlister ( 57 ) ________ 8.5____0.0______ ------

_03 __ davehsug ( L1-3 ) _______________8.5____0.0 _____ 94.0 (39)

_04 __ Roger J Smith ( 39 ) _____________ 8.7__ +0.2______61.2 (8)

_05 __ virtualsphere ( 09 ) _____________ 8.2 __ --0.3_____ 80.0 (21)

_06 __ Reef ( 35 ) _______________________8.1 __ --0.4____112.0 (48)

_07 __ Twilight ( 05 )____________________8.0 __ --0.5____110.0 (47)

_08 __ snowray ( 24 ) __________________ 8.0 __ --0.5_____ 92.0 (35)

_09 __ General Cluster ( 40 ) ___________8.0 __ --0.5_____ 85.0 (29)

_10 __ Mr Maunder ( 23 ) ______________7.7 __ --0.8_____ 96.0 (41)

_11 __ stewfox ( 41 ) ___________________7.7__ --0.8_____ 125.0 (54)

_12 __ bobd29 ( 10 ) ___________________7.6 __ --0.9_____ 82.0 (26)

_13 __ Joneseye ( 16 ) __________________7.6 __ --0.9_____ 85.0 (28)

_14 __ Earthshine ( 17 ) ________________9.4 __ +0.9_____ 73.0 ( 7)

_15 __ Relativistic ( 47 ) ________________ 7.5 __ -1.0_____ 80.0 (25)

_16 __ J10 ( 61 ) ________________________ 7.5 __ -1.0____ 120.0 (52)

_17 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 33 ) __________ 7.4 __ -1.1______ 60.0 (10)

(18) __ 1990-2019 average _____________ 7.4 __ -1.1____ 106.2 (46)

_18 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 37 ) __ 7.3 __ -1.2______15.0 (51)

_19 __ weather26  ( 02 ) ________________ 7.2 __ -1.3______ 68.3 ( 1)

_20 __ pegg24 ( 14 ) ____________________ 7.2 __ -1.3____ 100.0 (43)

_21 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 15 ) __________ 7.2 __ -1.3_____ 55.0 (18)

_22 __ The PIT ( 27 ) ____________________ 7.2 __ -1.3_____ 80.0 (23)

_23 __ Emmett Garland ( 34 ) ___________ 7.2 __ -1.3____ 118.0 (50)

_24 __ Mark Bayley ( 59 ) _______________ 7.2 __ -1.3_____ ------

_25 __ Stargazer ( 26 ) __________________ 7.1 __ -1.4_____ 95.0 (40)

(26) __ 1981-2010 average ______________ 7.1 __ -1.4____ 100.4 (45)

_26 __ Born From the Void ( 42 ) ________ 7.0 __ -1.5____ 100.0 (44)

_27 __ SLEETY (13) ______________________ 6.9 __ -1.6_____ 70.0 ( 3) 

_28 __ shillitocettwo (21) _______________ 6.9 __ -1.6_____ 117.0 (49)

_29 __ Mulzy (55) _______________________ 6.9 __ -1.6_____ 62.0  (6)

_30 __ timmytour (06) ___________________6.8 __ -1.7_____ 57.0 (15)

_____________________________________________________________________________

Best combined 

01_ Roger J Smith (3rd CET)* and (8th EWP) = 11 combined ranks 

02_ weather26 (19th CET) and (1st EWP) = 20 combined ranks

03_ Earthshine (14th CET) and (7th EWP) = 21 combined ranks

04_ virtualsphere (5th CET) and (21st EWP) = 26 combined ranks

05_ Feb1991Blizzard (17th CET) and (10th EWP) = 27 combined ranks

06_ SLEETY (27th CET) and (3rd EWP) = 30 combined ranks

07_ Mulzy (29th CET) and (6th EWP) = 35 combined ranks

08t bobd29 (12th CET) and (26th EWP) = 38 combined ranks

08t General Cluster (9th CET) and (29th EWP) = 38 combined ranks

10_ Diagonal Red Line (21st CET) and (18th EWP) = 39 combined ranks

11t Relativistic (15th CET) and (25th EWP) = 40 combined ranks

11t Joneseye (13th CET) and (28th EWP) = 41 combined ranks

13t davehsug (4th CET)* and (39th EWP) = 43 combined ranks

13t snowray (18th CET) and (25th EWP) = 43 combined ranks

15t timmytour (30th CET) and (15th EWP) = 45 combined ranks

15t The PIT (22nd CET) and (23rd EWP) = 45 combined ranks

15t Stationary Front (43rd CET) and (2nd EWP) = 45 combined ranks. 

* (CET rank) RS moves up one from table (4th), late penalty to 3rd (dave) -->> 4th.

EWP outcome was 67.4 mm, posted 5th Dec.

____________________________________________________

 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Daniel*]

God it seems I’ve done fantastically with EWP I’m surprisingly 2nd place for autumn  but terribly out this month with CET didn’t go at all like I thought drier yes but not so mild. 

[Roger J Smith]

I added the rest of the annual rankings for active participants in that EWP post a few days back, and the spread in the totals in that range is fairly small, also it is comparing people who played between 8 and 12 contests, so really it's your average error stat that may be of more interest and you'll be able to review that in the excel file when it's posted. 

I mentioned in this additional info that 2010cold had joined in at the halfway point and has been scoring at roughly top five pace since then. Earthshine, Summer Shower and summer blizzard are three others who have become regular participants and their ranking would be into the middle third of the regulars if they played as many times (based on their results, you never know of course what could happen in forecasts not submitted). The average error stat only gets ranked for 8-12 month players, but two who had seven forecasts did quite well -- Thundery Wintry Showers had an average similar to 2nd place in the contest and SLEETY around 17th. They were not actually in the list generated for the results I posted though. 2010cold had a lower average error for six forecasts than anyone had for any higher number, but as you may recall, regulars suffered from February being so wet (huge errors >70 mm for almost all of us there).

Final updates on EWP scoring to come on 5th or as soon as possible after that. 

 

[J10]

Monthly

Three players got it spot on this month.

syed2878, Duncan McAlister and davehsug

Only 9 players got within 0.5c, much lower than most recent months.

Edited December 3, 2020 by J10