November 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- the last month of this contest year

[Roger J Smith]

I agree that nothing is ever nailed on, but the current GFS run has nothing but mild zonal flow start to finish, and by end of run (24th) we could be above 10 C staring a record high outcome (10.1 1994) in the face. Makes a 9.0+ finish seem quite plausible and >8.0 all the more likely. 

As to output beyond seven days being unreliable, seems more often than not that cold scenarios are unreliable, mild ones more reliable. Once it gets zonal, the train often keeps running for weeks. 

For a very mild flow pattern it does not look unusually wet especially for November, a month that averages 100 mm.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.3 -1.2C below normal. Rainfall up to 9.1mm 11.5% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

8.6c to the 8th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[Scorcher]

5 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.3 -1.2C below normal. Rainfall up to 9.1mm 11.5% of the monthly average

Must be a lot cooler on your side of the Pennines- it has been noticeably mild over this side

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Must be a lot cooler on your side of the Pennines- it has been noticeably mild over this side

We've been sat under fog and cloud in Leeds since it went milder so reasonably warm average but nothing special.

[Scorcher]

9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

We've been sat under fog and cloud in Leeds since it went milder so reasonably warm average but nothing special.

Yes fog hasn't been an issue in this area- it does seem that east of the Pennines is more vulnerable to fog at this time of year.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.8C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall 10.5mm 13.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.9c to the 9th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP had reached 18 mm after 8th, added perhaps 4-5 mm on 9th, and GFS ten-day signals only 15-20 mm additional to 20th. That's not much more than 40 mm with a large high settled over the UK by day ten, probably 10-20 mm would be a safe bet for 21st to 30th in the pattern evolving beyond the 20th.

Looks like the lower half of the forecasts may be edging ahead in terms of odds at this point. 

The CET not on quite such a high trajectory with that high in the picture, but would still think it would pass 10.0 at some point before dropping back to around 9 perhaps, final result most likely to be in the 8s. But it could drop lower if everything worked out just right. (I should say wrong)

[The PIT]

Got Yesterdays figure wrong sorry folks

Sunny Sheffield at 8.6C -0.6C below average, Rainfall 10.8mm 13.6% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

9.3c to the 10th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[Scorcher]

The CET finally seems to be going up now and is beginning to reflect how mild the last few days have been. It was slower to rise than I expected initially though.

[Man With Beard]

On 21/10/2020 at 08:14, Lettucing Gutted said:

Rest in pieces naff "autumn" 2020!  13C    Last sub 3C November in 1915.  Last sub 4C November in 1925.  Last sub 5C November in 1993.  Last sub 6C November in 2016.

200mm of Atlantic garbage

You know you're having a bad month when you're unsure if Lettucing Gutted might beat you.

[Roger J Smith]

5 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

You know you're having a bad month when you're unsure if Lettucing Gutted might beat you.

He beat everybody in Dec 2015 and in fact (sit down while reading this) predicted a CET value below the outcome. 

[Roger J Smith]

Just had a look at the 12z GFS run, based on that being accurate to the end, CET would probably keep edging up with slight variations and could reach the mid to high 10s at some point around 22nd, then would be falling back at the end (27th) into high 9s. As the GFS is well known for overdoing cold in FI, that cold looking chart at the end of the run might be just noise that turns out to be a return to average. Whatever, there isn't much time from 27th to 30th to repair damage done to sub-9 forecasts and Earthshine could pull this one off. I will go out on a limb and say LG won't finish first but lower middle of the table (I think he was saying 13.0, we might have one or two days that hit that mark, perhaps next Tuesday). Doesn't look overly wet though. 

Edited November 11, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

He beat everybody in Dec 2015 and in fact (sit down while reading this) predicted a CET value below the outcome. 

you know its hot when than happens!

[Roger J Smith]

I just had a look at the thread for that month, the forecasts were generally in the 5s and 6s, my punt of 7.4 seemed quite daring to me at the time (and finished second with an error of 2.3 deg :) ) ... Craig (LG) was playing as "I HAVE NO TRUE FRIENDS NOW" after starting 2015 as "GOODBYE COLD WEATHER."

Not sure when the forecasting of extreme warmth began with LG, he makes mention in the thread that he underpredicted September 2010 but with a near average value (thinking that was the only other time he had gone below an actual outcome). 

In the thread it was also mentioned that everyone went over the outcome in March 2013 so we've managed to do this on both sides of the outcome once apparently (Dec 2010 we had one or two forecasts below the outcome, Nov 2010 maybe one or two also). 

[Relativistic]

Yes, I was one of the lowest in March 2013 and I think I went for around 4.5C. Way off.

Edit: no idea about December 2015 but I think similar to my March 2013 figure... what a mad month that was.

Edited November 11, 2020 by Relativistic

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 11th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[cheeky_monkey]

Sunny Edmonton is at -1.8c to the 11th which is +2.3c above normal this is due to the record breaking warmth we had at the start of the month..been cold and snowy this last week 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8.7C -0.4C below normal. Rainfall 14.4mm 18.1% of the average rainfall.

Looking at next week five days should produce a small rise so will be above average by then. Rainfall well so far any rainfall from the fronts has been fairly light. Whether that lasts over the weekend is another question.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.8C -0.2C below average. Rainfall up to 15.2mm 19.1% of the monthly rainfall.

Todays rainfall hardly anything to the total so first part of the month looking to be on the dry side at the moment.

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 12th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP has reached about 30 mm (27 mm to 11th), and GFS ten-day predicts 50-60 mm for the grid, although when you look at the charts they seem not to have quite that much potential, then certainly about 10-20 mm more after the ten days, landing zone would be 90-110 mm if all of that verified. 

Somewhat colder looking synoptics have appeared towards end of the run, CET will probably reach 10 before that starts, remains to be seen how strong a cooling trend can be obtained, but would say the low to mid 8 range looks good although 7s not out of the running by any means. 

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 13th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th & 8th