November 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- the last month of this contest year

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Can’t see November finishing below average now with the mild south to southwesterlies being shown in the recent models.

Maybe 2nd half will cancel it out!?

[mb018538]

8 hours ago, JeffC said:

Maybe 2nd half will cancel it out!?

Very unlikely IMO. We going to get to the last 10 days and probably be 3c above average. We'd need a few ice days to scrub that sort of anomaly out in 10 days!

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 5th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 9.1c on the 5th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.1C -0.7C below average, Rainfall 7.5mm 9.4% of the monthly average.

[JeffC]

13 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Very unlikely IMO. We going to get to the last 10 days and probably be 3c above average. We'd need a few ice days to scrub that sort of anomaly out in 10 days!

Hope springs eternal!

[Roger J Smith]

14 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Very unlikely IMO. We going to get to the last 10 days and probably be 3c above average. We'd need a few ice days to scrub that sort of anomaly out in 10 days!

Just as an illustration of that, here are the running CET values from Nov 19 to 30 of 2010 with 11th and 15th added for context ...

(1904 was similar, having the coldest November daily mean of -4.6 ... its values are in the column to the right).

date _ 2010 CET __ 1904 CET

11 _ 8.8 __________ 9.1

15 _ 8.2 __________ 8.4

19 _ 7.5 __________ 7.8

20 _ 7.4 __________ 7.7

21 _ 7.3 __________ 7.4

22 _ 7.2 __________ 7.1

23 _ 7.1 __________ 6.8

24 _ 6.9 __________ 6.3

25 _ 6.6 __________ 6.0

26 _ 6.3 __________ 5.8

27 _ 6.0 __________ 5.5

28 _ 5.7 __________ 5.3

29 _ 5.4 __________ 5.3

30 _ 5.2 __________ 5.2

-----------------------------------------------

On the other side of the ledger, 1994 stood at 10.6 on the 19th and only lost a little ending at 10.1. Nov 2015 was 11.3 on the 19th and leaked a bit down to 9.5. Novembers that increase after the 19th are fairly common. Here's the full list of 59 of them in 248 years ... in order of magnitude of the increase attained. There were twenty other cases not listed that stayed on the same value. 

It can be seen that most of the increases were from under 6.0 on the 19th, so a rather cold start to November that a milder turn could easily increase. The mildest November as of the 19th to make a gain was 1946 (7.8 increased to 8.1). That tied with 2006 (7.6 to 8.1) in terms of the mildest end of month value for a November that gained after the 19th. 1984 finished on 8.0 from 7.7. 

 

YEAR __ CET 19th __ CET 30th __ increase ___________ YEAR __ CET 19th __ CET 30th __ increase

1835 ____ 4.9 ______ 6.6 _____ 1.7 ____________ 1786 ____ 2.9 ______ 3.3 _____ 0.4

1929 ____ 5.3 ______ 6.7 _____ 1.4 ____________ 1825 ____ 4.8 ______ 5.2 _____ 0.4

1848 ____ 4.6 ______ 5.8 _____ 1.2 ____________ 1841 ____ 4.8 ______ 5.2 _____ 0.4

1968 ____ 5.3 ______ 6.5 _____ 1.2 ____________ 1856 ____ 4.4 ______ 4.8 _____ 0.4

1861 ____ 3.1 ______ 4.2 _____ 1.1 ____________ 1864 ____ 5.1 ______ 5.5 _____ 0.4

1823 ____ 6.1 ______ 7.1 _____ 1.0 ____________ 1919 ____ 2.9 ______ 3.3 _____ 0.4

1843 ____ 4.7 ______ 5.7 _____ 1.0 ____________ 1960 ____ 6.9 ______ 7.3 _____ 0.4

1870 ____ 3.7 ______ 4.7 _____ 1.0 ____________ 1979 ____ 6.4 ______ 6.8 _____ 0.4

1906 ____ 6.3 ______ 7.3 _____ 1.0 ____________ 1980 ____ 6.2 ______ 6.6 _____ 0.4

1917 ____ 6.8 ______ 7.8 _____ 1.0 ____________ 1805 ____ 4.5 ______ 4.8 _____ 0.3 

1934 ____ 5.2 ______ 6.1 _____ 0.9 ____________ 1808 ____ 5.7 ______ 6.0 _____ 0.3

1941 ____ 5.7 ______ 6.6 _____ 0.9 ____________ 1836 ____ 5.0 ______ 5.3 _____ 0.3 

1791 ____ 5.1 ______ 5.9 _____ 0.8 ____________ 1885 ____ 5.6 ______ 5.9 _____ 0.3 

1959 ____ 6.3 ______ 7.1 _____ 0.8 ____________ 1946 ____ 7.8 ______ 8.1 _____ 0.3

1802 ____ 4.4 ______ 5.1 _____ 0.7 ____________ 1984 ____ 7.7 ______ 8.0 _____ 0.3

1924 ____ 6.4 ______ 7.1 _____ 0.7 ____________ 2001 ____ 7.2 ______ 7.5 _____ 0.3

1778 ____ 6.1 ______ 6.7 _____ 0.6 ____________ 1793 ____ 5.8 ______ 6.0 _____ 0.2

1865 ____ 6.1 ______ 6.7 _____ 0.6 ____________ 1810 ____ 5.2 ______ 5.4 _____ 0.2

1872 ____ 6.4 ______ 7.0 _____ 0.6 ____________ 1928 ____ 7.4 ______ 7.6 _____ 0.2

1873 ____ 5.7 ______ 6.3 _____ 0.6 ____________ 1930 ____ 6.0 ______ 6.2 _____ 0.2

1883 ____ 5.2 ______ 5.8 _____ 0.6 ____________ 1932 ____ 6.4 ______ 6.6 _____ 0.2

1944 ____ 5.6 ______ 6.2 _____ 0.6 ____________ 1954 ____ 6.7 ______ 6.9 _____ 0.2

1820 ____ 5.1 ______ 5.6 _____ 0.5 ____________ 1970 ____ 7.6 ______ 7.8 _____ 0.2

1831 ____ 5.1 ______ 5.6 _____ 0.5 ____________ 1976 ____ 6.1 ______ 6.3 _____ 0.2

1837 ____ 5.7 ______ 5.2 _____ 0.5 ____________ 1991 ____ 6.6 ______ 6.8 _____ 0.2

2006 ____ 7.6 ______ 8.1 _____ 0.5 ____________ 1794 ____ 6.0 ______ 6.1 _____ 0.1

______________________________________________1832 ____ 5.8 ______ 5.9 _____ 0.1 

______________________________________________1858 ____ 4.2 ______ 4.3 _____ 0.1

______________________________________________1893 ____ 5.1 ______ 5.2 _____ 0.1 

______________________________________________1908 ____ 7.3 ______ 7.4 _____ 0.1

______________________________________________1995 ____ 7.6 ______ 7.7 _____ 0.1

______________________________________________2000 ____ 6.9 ______ 7.0 _____ 0.1

______________________________________________2019 ____ 6.1 ______ 6.2 _____ 0.1

===================================================================

These Novembers with an increase seem to be a fairly constant phenomenon. There were 21 of them 1772-1850, 23 of them 1851-1930 and 15 of them 1931 to 2019 so the frequency has been falling slightly and the largest case since 1930 was 5th place 1968 (+1.2), but it's all the way down to 26th (2006) to find the largest one since 1980 (+0.5). From 1979 to 2019 there were nine cases, most of them like last year, quite small. 

Edited November 6, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.8C -0.9C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

8.9c to the 6th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.9c on the 6th

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

8.9c to the 6th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.9c on the 6th

Looks like that's going to be the low point for quite a while now

[Don]

I think there's a good chance my 6.7C is off the table now!  This November is reminding me a bit of November 2011?

[Earthshine]

My guess of 9.4C might even be too low looking at some of the model outputs.

[Don]

Just now, Earthshine said:

My guess of 9.4C might even be too low looking at some of the model outputs.

I'm thinking November could finish in the high 9's which would make my guess 3C too low!  However, plenty of time for things to change at this stage of course, but I think I'm pretty much out of the game.

[Earthshine]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm thinking November could finish in the high 9's which would make my guess 3C too low!  However, plenty of time for things to change at this stage of course, but I think I'm pretty much out of the game.

Temperatures here for the next week at least are forecast to hover around the 14C mark by day and 10C by night.  Pretty monotonously mild weather that tends to boost the CET quite dramatically (mean temperatures here at least will be around 12C for the next week or so).

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Temperatures here for the next week at least are forecast to hover around the 14C mark by day and 10C by night.  Pretty monotonously mild weather that tends to boost the CET quite dramatically (mean temperatures here at least will be around 12C for the next week or so).

That's the thing with it being so mild at night, too.  Certainly felt unseasonal out today!

[Dancerwithwings]

50 minutes ago, Don said:

I think there's a good chance my 6.7C is off the table now!  This November is reminding me a bit of November 2011?

I’m sure it’ll be the biggest short fall for most ( 3 to 4c out ) the model output has made a fool of us all as we was looking at a full on Northeasterly from mid month as it was looking cold all the way BUT it’s turned out to be mild all the way instead.

[Don]

30 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I’m sure it’ll be the biggest short fall for most ( 3 to 4c out ) the model output has made a fool of us all as we was looking at a full on Northeasterly from mid month as it was looking cold all the way BUT it’s turned out to be mild all the way instead.

Yes, if I remember correctly the models made a fool out of us (including the met) in a similar way in February 2019 when they were showing significant cold from mid month all the way and we ended up with 70F??!! 

[JeffC]

Patience people, just because the fat lady's popped her Hawaiian shirt on, doesn't mean she's gargling ready for the finale...

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, JeffC said:

Patience people, just because the fat lady's popped her Hawaiian shirt on, doesn't mean she's gargling ready for the finale...

It's mad, quite honestly. Output beyond day 7 is most often nonsense and yet everyone's absolutely certain that this month is going to end up ultra-mild...

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, Earthshine said:

My guess of 9.4C might even be too low looking at some of the model outputs.

Your forecast safety zone is 9.1 to 11.1 ... for a win anyway. Mine is 8.7 to 9.0. syed2878 wins at 8.4-8.6. virtualsphere wins at 8.2-8.3, Reef at 8.1, Twilight at 7.9-8.0. 

(from table of entries)

CET __ EWP __ Forecaster

13.0 _ 200.0 _ Lettucing Gutted ( 07 ) 

 9.4 __ 73.0 _ Earthshine ( 17 ) 

 8.7 __ 61.2 _ Roger J Smith ( 39 ) 

 8.5 _ 105.0 _ syed2878 ( 25 ) 

 8.5 _ ------- _ Duncan McAlister ( 57 ) 

 8.5 __ 94.0 _ davehsug ( L1-3 )

 8.2 __ 80.0 _ virtualsphere ( 09 ) 

 8.1 _ 112.0 _ Reef ( 35 ) 

 8.0 _ 110.0 _ Twilight ( 05 )

 8.0 __ 92.0 _ snowray ( 24 )

 8.0 __ 85.0 _ General Cluster ( 40 ) 

(all of our 8+ forecasts shown) ... number in brackets is the order of entry, breaks ties in errors. 

At 10.5, LG finishes 10th (between Twilight 9th and snowray 11th).

At 10.6 or 10.7, LG is 6th ahead of 7th virtualsphere.

At 10.8 LG moves to 3rd, at 10.9 to 2nd and at 11.2 would win on earlier entry. 

A monsoon near the end of the month and LG can collect best combined as well. 

Interesting times, not that confident yet. 

Edited November 8, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update ... 15 mm to 6th and not much added on 7th (small amounts in southwest, grid average 0-1 mm). 

The ten-day GFS looks rather dry considering it's a mild southwest flow with low pressure areas involved, heavier rain is depicted over Ireland but the EWP grid average is 15-20 mm. That leaves the total around 30-35 mm but would think there is more chance of that busting low than high.

I was unable to access GFS 11-16 day maps but the way the outlook has changed completely from day to day, would not think it very reliable whatever it shows, so just using basic climate logic, a southwest flow often leads to stormier conditions later in a period and it would not surprise me if the second half of this month turned quite wet. 

So nobody should necessarily write off any forecast yet. 

As to CET, resistance is futile ... it's going up, not down, for a while yet and could be very close to 10 C by 20th if the current guidance is anywhere near right.

As I showed from 2010, being near 10 after mid-month is no guarantee of a high finish (look at 1904 in particular) but as I recall from an earlier recent November, the list of years that ever hit 10 in the second half is small and the outcome for them usually ranges from 8 to 9.5 at the end. 

[The PIT]

Smoggy Sheffield down to 8.3C -1.3C below normal. Rainfall 7.7mm 9.7% of the monthly average.

Had to double check the calendar and make sure it wasn't the 28th November with some of the post posted. 

Nothing like November 2011 which by this stage was milder and wetter

[Summer Sun]

8.6c to the 7th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.6c on the 7th

[snowray]

Strange that I wanted to go for 9.2c and then thought surely not, way too high. Anyway, still a long way to go, may see some frosty weather turn up in the last week or so of the month.

[mb018538]

20 hours ago, Relativistic said:

It's mad, quite honestly. Output beyond day 7 is most often nonsense and yet everyone's absolutely certain that this month is going to end up ultra-mild...

It looks a fairly decent bet. We’re going to get to the last 10 days probably at least 2.5c above average. We’d need a 2009/10 spell to pull that sort of deficit back. My guess being so far out might even cost me the CET comp too

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It looks a fairly decent bet. We’re going to get to the last 10 days probably at least 2.5c above average. We’d need a 2009/10 spell to pull that sort of deficit back. My guess being so far out might even cost me the CET comp too

I agree, but some are convinced a 9C+ month is nailed on. And at this stage we have essentially zero idea what the pattern for the final 10 days will be.