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November 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- the last month of this contest year


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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
On 27/10/2020 at 23:20, DR(S)NO said:

7.0c and 100mm thank you please

A slight change to my initial guess please 

6.0c and 80mm please

probably to high at that too

On 27/10/2020 at 23:20, DR(S)NO said:

7.0c and 100mm thank you please

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

7.5 and 80mm.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Severe cold, heavy snow, massive thunderstorms and bright sunshine.
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

5.9*c and 62.2 mm please.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Dominated by HP with a couple of LP infiltrations from the N or NW later in month.  How mild will daytime temps be and how chilly will clear nights be?  
 

55mm.  6.4c

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
4 hours ago, Stationary Front said:

6.6 with 66mm please

I almost posted the exact cet and ewp yesterday! 

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
3 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

7.1c

78mm

Can we not edit our posts anymore ??

Can I change my 7.1c to 6.8c.

Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

5.5c and 55mm please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Well here I go my last prediction for the year and I’m going for 6.4c please, all based on the latest output.

Hopefully northerlies are upon us  from mid month ❄️❄️❄️

And last but not least thank you Roger & J10 for all you do

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

6.6c and 58mm please 

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

posted a bit early, having some problems with the post and didn't want to risk losing the work, editing in any later but still on-time forecasts to midnight, then will add any really late forecasts 1-3 Nov ... good luck everybody  

Table of entries for November 2020

The number in brackets after forecaster name is order of entry into CET contest. If two numbers appear, it's because CET or EWP was revised, and the other not, in the case of EWP entries left unrevised, they get a decimal order of entry between two remaining CET values. Only the last posted forecast is entered here. The table goes by CET values top to bottom, with EWP forecasts alongside, then a separate table lists the EWP entries in their order from top to bottom

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (entry) ________________________CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (entry)

 

13.0 _ 200.0 _ Lettucing Gutted ( 07 ) __________________6.8 __ 57.0 _ Timmytour ( 06 ) ________________

 9.4 __ 73.0 _ Earthshine ( 17 ) _________________________6.8 __ 80.0 _ sundog ( 22 ) ____________________

 8.7 __ 61.2 _ Roger J Smith ( 39 ) ______________________6.8 __ 94.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 38 ) ______

 8.5 _ 105.0 _ syed2878 ( 25 ) _________________________ 6.8 _ ------- _ Summer Sun ( 43 ) _______________  

 8.5 _ ------- _ Duncan McAlister ( 57 ) _________________ 6.8 __ 78.0 _ seaside60 ( 52, 46.5 ) ____________  

 8.5 __ 94.0 _ davehsug ( L1-3 ) ________________________6.8 __ 94.0 _ Moorlander ( L1-1 ) _______________

 8.2 __ 80.0 _ virtualsphere ( 09 ) ______________________6.7 __ 94.0 _ SteveB ( 04 ) _____________________  

 8.1 _ 112.0 _ Reef ( 35 ) _______________________________6.7 __ 89.0 _ DogToffee ( 18 ) _________________

 8.0 _ 110.0 _ Twilight ( 05 )____________________________ 6.7 _ ------- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 30 ) _______

 8.0 __ 92.0 _ snowray ( 24 )   __________________________6.7 __ 90.0 _ Don ( 44 ) _______________________

 8.0 __ 85.0 _ General Cluster ( 40 ) ____________________6.6 __ 90.0 _ Summer Blizzard ( 20 ) _________  

 7.7 __ 96.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 23 ) _______________________ 6.6 __ 71.0 _ CheesepuffScott ( 31 ) __________

 7.7 _ 125.0 _ stewfox ( 41 ) ___________________________  6.6 __ 87.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 32 ) __________

 7.6 __ 82.0 _ bobd29 ( 10 ) ____________________________ 6.6 __ 66.0 _ Stationary Front ( 46 ) ___________

 7.6 __ 85.0 _ Joneseye ( 16 ) ___________________________6.6 __ 58.0 _ mb018538 ( 58 ) ________________

  7.5 __ 80.0 _ Relativistic ( 47 ) _________________________6.5 __ 45.0 _ DAVID SNOW ( 62 ) _____________

  7.5 _ 120.0 _ J10 ( 61 )_________________________________6.5 __ 74.0 _ February1978 ( 63 ) _____________

  7.4 __ 60.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 33 ) __________________  6.4 __ 55.0 _ Blast from the Past ( 49 ) ________

  7.4 ___ 106.2 _ 1990-2019 average ________________________ 6.4 _ ------- _ dancerwithwings ( 56 ) ___________  

  7.3 __ 15.0 _ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 37 ) __________ 6.4 _ ------- _ Froze were the Days ( L1-2 ) ______

  7.2 __ 68.3 _ weather26  ( 02 ) ________________________ 6.3 _ ------- _ Man with Beard ( 54 ) ___________  

  7.2 _ 100.0 _ pegg24 ( 14 ) ____________________________ 6.2 __ 75.0 _ jonboy ( 29 ) ____________________

  7.2 __ 55.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 15 ) __________________ 6.1 __ 98.2 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 03 ) _________ 

  7.2 __ 80.0 _ The PIT ( 27 ) ____________________________ 6.1 _ 101.0 _ NeilN ( 11 ) _____________________

  7.2 _ 118.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 34 ) __________________ 6.1 _ 123.0 _ JeffC ( 12 ) ______________________

  7.2 _ ------- _ Mark Bayley ( 59 ) _______________________ 6.1 _ 175.0 _ Thundershine ( 19 ) ____________ 

  7.1 __ 95.0 _ Stargazer ( 26 ) __________________________6.0 __ 80.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 45 ) ___________________

  7.1 ___ 100.4 _ 1981-2010 average ________________________ 6.0 __ 60.0 _ weather-history ( 50 ) ____________ 

  7.0 _ 100.0 _ Born From the Void ( 42 ) _______________ 5.9 __ 62.2 _ 2010cold ( 48 ) ___________________ 

  6.9 __ 70.0 _ SLEETY ( 13 ) ____________________________ 5.8 _ ------- _ Kentish Man ( 28 ) _______________  

  6.9 _ 117.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 21 ) ______________________5.8 _ ------- _ damianslaw ( 60 ) _______________

  6.9 __ 62.0 _ Mulzy ( 55 ) ______________________________5.5 _ 180.0 _ Summer Shower ( 08 ) ___________ 

________________________________________________________ 5.5 __ 55.0 _ Godber1 ( 53 ) ___________________  

________________________________________________________ 5.4 __ 83.6 _ Polar Gael ( 01 ) __________________

  6.8 __ 83.6 _ consensus ______________________________ 5.3 __ 60.0 _ daniel* ( 36 ) ______________________

________________________________________________________ 4.7 __ 65.0 _ Booferking ( 51 )  __________________

_______________________________

63 on-time entries, plus three that are one day late, 66 total .. consensus (median) is 6.8

========================================================

 

EWP Forecasts in order

 

200_LG ... 180_SumSh ... 175_Thun ... 125_stew ... 123_JeffC ... 120_J10 ... 118_EG ... 117_shil

112_Reef ... 110_Twi ... 106.2_1990-2019 ... 105_syed ... 101_NN ... 100.4_1981-2010

100_pegg, BFTV ... 98.2_KW ... 96_MrM ... 95_star ... 94_SteveB, pSL, moor^, dave^

 92_snow .. 90_SB, Don ... 89_DT ... 87_MIA ... 85_Jones,GC ... 83.6_PG con ... 82_bobd

 80_virt, sun, PIT, DR(S), Rel ... 78_sea ... 75_jon ... 74_Feb78 ... 73_earth ... 71_CPS

 70_SLE ... 68.3_wx26 ... 66_SF ... 62.2_2010cold ... 62_Mul ... 61.2_RJS

 60_Feb91, dan, wx-his ... 58_mb ... 57_Tim ... 56_Boof ... 55_DRL, BFTP, Godb ... 

 45_DS ... 15_IRA252

55 on-time forecasts, two more are one day late ( ^ ) ... total 57 so far

consensus (median) 83.6 mm. 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
(3 Dec 0040h _ had errors in normals, one order of entry error fixed
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