Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

[joggs]

21 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Why am i thinking of Monty Python?

 

Certainly a beastly PV this winter and set to continue by the look of it,although it will come to the point where it is to strong for its own good....

 

Well,we might as well have extremes. Hopefully an extreme warm one next year

[bluearmy]

Gfs ops continue to play strange games with the spv late on week 2. 
 

something could be afoot ………

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs ops continue to play strange games with the spv late on week 2. 
 

something could be afoot ………

And the answer isn't 12 inches. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Op is the best of the stratospheric charts on the 12z GFS

Unfortunately has very little support from any of the ensembles. Only P18 comes anywhere close to this pattern at 384h

[Don]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Op is the best of the stratospheric charts on the 12z GFS

Unfortunately has very little support from any of the ensembles. Only P18 comes anywhere close to this pattern at 384h

Perhaps the op is leading the way, although I doubt it knowing this winter!

[Allseasons-Si]

43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs ops continue to play strange games with the spv late on week 2. 
 

something could be afoot ………

Yep,...I've just posted this in the MOD thread,and just maybe something starting to uptick on the jma too.

 

Edited January 24, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Mike Poole]

I can’t remember a recent winter when I’ve had so little to comment on in this thread.  Normally, the strat is part and parcel of the whole winter narrative, but this year that narrative has just been one of a very strong strat vortex with no pressure put on it thus far.

A couple of GFS runs showing something more interesting re pressure put on the strong strat vortex, allows a straw clutch, maybe?  If pressure were to be exacted on the vortex in just the right place, could the fact that it is so strong actually work in our favour and cause a really energetic split event that blows it apart and downwells fast to the trop?  Or am I just dreaming?

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I can’t remember a recent winter when I’ve had so little to comment on in this thread.  Normally, the strat is part and parcel of the whole winter narrative, but this year that narrative has just been one of a very strong strat vortex with no pressure put on it thus far.

A couple of GFS runs showing something more interesting re pressure put on the strong strat vortex, allows a straw clutch, maybe?  If pressure were to be exacted on the vortex in just the right place, could the fact that it is so strong actually work in our favour and cause a really energetic split event that blows it apart and downwells fast to the trop?  Or am I just dreaming?

2019-2020 saw little pressure on the PV all winter from memory, Did it just ebb away through Spring 2020...mind what a turnaround in affairs in late March.. but unlike this one, it caused a barrage of wind and rain. I suspect 13-14 was the same..

[SqueakheartLW]

Looks like our vortex continues to run above average overall but by how much and how do we compare to other years on the record

First here's the latest chart from weather is cool showing how we have run really above average since early November when we last ran below normal and how we are generally predicted to stay above average.

Below I have the latest data showing first on the left the rolling average vortex speed from 1st November up to 25th January for this season as well as all others on the record. 2022 is highlighted of course as well as what the average figure is. On the right is the latest daily speed and where this stands against all the other years and the average too.

Rolling Average Mean

Compared to a week ago and with continued above average vortex speed it is no surprise that 2022 has now broken into the top 10 overall and we are very much on a par with 1996 and 1991 at this stage although the weather we have had is quite a bit different to both of those years. 2016 maintains it's grip at the top of the table on this measure whilst 1999 has moved off bottom spot after the SSW in 2019 pushed it down below 1999.

Daily Vortex Speed

We are still very much above average here but like a week ago we are still not in the top 10 but with the predicted up tick in zonal winds to come then we could be seeing top 10 values quite soon and possibly even daily records going in a few days time. Today 1984 tops the speeds but like a week ago 2005 still very much features at the top end. Despite 2016 topping the overall mean it only places 6th here and no doubt 2016 will begin to drop away later on in the winter once the warmings in the stratosphere come into play later on. 2013, 2009, 1987 and 2006 are all in reversal on this day and are either undergoing a SSW or have had one.

Summary

Still the vortex rages on and if it continues the way it is we may end up with on average a top 5 or possibly even the strongest average vortex on record if we keep this going throughout the whole measurement range I have used which spans November 1st to March 31st.

[fromey]

10hpa just above normal first time since December 

30hpa well below! 

[damianslaw]

On 26/01/2022 at 20:40, SqueakheartLW said:

Looks like our vortex continues to run above average overall but by how much and how do we compare to other years on the record

First here's the latest chart from weather is cool showing how we have run really above average since early November when we last ran below normal and how we are generally predicted to stay above average.

Below I have the latest data showing first on the left the rolling average vortex speed from 1st November up to 25th January for this season as well as all others on the record. 2022 is highlighted of course as well as what the average figure is. On the right is the latest daily speed and where this stands against all the other years and the average too.

Rolling Average Mean

Compared to a week ago and with continued above average vortex speed it is no surprise that 2022 has now broken into the top 10 overall and we are very much on a par with 1996 and 1991 at this stage although the weather we have had is quite a bit different to both of those years. 2016 maintains it's grip at the top of the table on this measure whilst 1999 has moved off bottom spot after the SSW in 2019 pushed it down below 1999.

Daily Vortex Speed

We are still very much above average here but like a week ago we are still not in the top 10 but with the predicted up tick in zonal winds to come then we could be seeing top 10 values quite soon and possibly even daily records going in a few days time. Today 1984 tops the speeds but like a week ago 2005 still very much features at the top end. Despite 2016 topping the overall mean it only places 6th here and no doubt 2016 will begin to drop away later on in the winter once the warmings in the stratosphere come into play later on. 2013, 2009, 1987 and 2006 are all in reversal on this day and are either undergoing a SSW or have had one.

Summary

Still the vortex rages on and if it continues the way it is we may end up with on average a top 5 or possibly even the strongest average vortex on record if we keep this going throughout the whole measurement range I have used which spans November 1st to March 31st.

Why so strong this year? Also unusually an exceptionally quiet Atlantic. 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Why so strong this year? Also unusually an exceptionally quiet Atlantic. 

The Atlantic hasnt been quiet though, it just that the energy tracked North of the UK.

 

[sebastiaan1973]

Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Extreme Cold Events in Early 2021: An Ensemble‐Based Sensitivity Analysis - Zhang - 2022 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

[Gray-Wolf]

On 28/01/2022 at 16:11, mushymanrob said:

The Atlantic hasnt been quiet though, it just that the energy tracked North of the UK.

 

Exactly that! We've been seeing Lows with core pressures to rival Hurricanes central pressures! But North of us ,so far North they've impacted the winter ice formation as they rattled through?

 

If you look at shape, position & speed of the Polar Night Jet You can see it is shifted from a central position to one more over the north of the Atlantic area?

Folk with more knowledge than I can tell you what this configuration has meant for H.P. impacting us & now this run of windy lows we're in?

I might be a tad early in thinking this but if the P.N.J. sits in this current position there will be a potential ozone impacts (destruction) as the sun returns as we move through Feb & also what a final warming in this position would mean for the surface weather down the line from it?

[Don]

7 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I might be a tad early in thinking this but if the P.N.J. sits in this current position there will be a potential ozone impacts (destruction) as the sun returns as we move through Feb & also what a final warming in this position would mean for the surface weather down the line from it?

I imagine trouble Gray-Wolf!! 

[bluearmy]

Only 1.6 m/s off a date record …… maybe a shot at setting one over the next couple days before a temp drop off 

[SqueakheartLW]

7 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Only 1.6 m/s off a date record …… maybe a shot at setting one over the next couple days before a temp drop off 

There could be many date records broken later in February and possibly March and April too if these CFS forecasts turn out correct. Could be the fastest and also potentially one of the latest ends to a vortex on record this year.

Also this chart really says it all about our "Polar Vortex of Doom Part 2"

All those promising signals for cold but as some asked in other threads, what could possibly go wrong?

The answer it seems was up in the strat, that's what's gone wrong this time around.

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

There could be many date records broken later in February and possibly March and April too if these CFS forecasts turn out correct. Could be the fastest and also potentially one of the latest ends to a vortex on record this year.

Also this chart really says it all about our "Polar Vortex of Doom Part 2"

All those promising signals for cold but as some asked in other threads, what could possibly go wrong?

The answer it seems was up in the strat, that's what's gone wrong this time around.

That really does look shocking and look at the difference compared to 12 months ago!  Not sure that bodes well for a settled/warm spring many are hankering after?

[bluearmy]

18 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Only 1.6 m/s off a date record …… maybe a shot at setting one over the next couple days before a temp drop off 

Didn’t take long  - not sure if it’s yesterday or today 

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 57.5 m/s 

Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -16.5 m/s 2009

Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 55.6 m/s 1989

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Didn’t take long  - not sure if it’s yesterday or today 

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 57.5 m/s 

Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -16.5 m/s 2009

Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 55.6 m/s 1989

Sobering news Bluearmy. 

Were previous rampant PV February's followed by below average Springs perhaps?

[summer blizzard]

51 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Sobering news Bluearmy. 

Were previous rampant PV February's followed by below average Springs perhaps?

Plenty of Nina winters have a stronger vortex late in the winter rather than early. The results for spring are somewhat mixed with some years going gung ho for high pressure while others have a cooler Westerly pattern so no way to tell.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Sobering news Bluearmy. 

Were previous rampant PV February's followed by below average Springs perhaps?

The spv is strong for the time of year but about to drop back a little and then come back up again ….. looks like a pretty slow decline towards average through the remainder of the season 

Whilst the rampant upper spv continues, the coupling with the tpv is solidly in locale rather than strength…. although the increase in zonal flow as we drop through the strat is more noticeable than it has been thus far and it must be reflected to some extent lower down 

[Don]

6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Plenty of Nina winters have a stronger vortex late in the winter rather than early. The results for spring are somewhat mixed with some years going gung ho for high pressure while others have a cooler Westerly pattern so no way to tell.

Good point, I forgot that spring 2020 was pretty decent following the PV of doom winter!

[Cheshire Freeze]

19 minutes ago, Don said:

Good point, I forgot that spring 2020 was pretty decent following the PV of doom winter!

A warm, drier than average spring looks likely to me. Perhaps into June.

[phil nw.]

The  strat vortex is still running very cold for this time of year that's for sure,especially so at 30hPa.

around 20c colder than normal!

It's going to take some serious warming to undermine this little beaut of which there is no sign yet.It may well be the final warming that sees it's demise.It's looking more and more likely that we will see Winter out on this mobile NH pattern.