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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    On 30/01/2021 at 12:50, wellington boot said:

    Can you tell me why the red lines change between the charts? I understood these marked long term average, low and high, but they appear to change.

    Is it the red lines changing or the scale moving  ??

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    It has been interesting to see ECM strat disruption undermodelled this season so far. The wave 1 warming we have been going through was upgraded at short range, and again we have an upgrade in wave 2

    This might be a good time to remind everyone that the Stratosphere charts on Meteociel will not show you whether there is a split in the polar vortex or not - the polar vortex is not just a chunk of c

    As always, a great animation of the SPV from Andrej.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
    3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    Is it the red lines changing or the scale moving  ??

    I considered that - definitely changing. Look at one of the posts where charts over several days are posted together. There are very obvious features in the long term average line (if that is what it is...) as well as the min and max lines, that simply disappear or change noticeably from one chart to the next, at the same date.

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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    The SPV remains with a split forecast (vortices e of greeny  and far ne Siberia)

    not the best for us and perhaps where the prediction of a strong Atlantic is based in the extended ??

     In previous UK Met updates unsettled weather for later February was suggested, so this maybe is what mogrep was seeing. The EC46 will likely change in week 3 now. In any case try to enjoy the cold spell if it comes, rather than focusing on its demise.

    Edited by Bricriu
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    9 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    The SPV remains with a split forecast (vortices e of greeny  and far ne Siberia)

    not the best for us and perhaps where the prediction of a strong Atlantic is based in the extended ??

    I guess it does.

    gensnh-31-1-300.png

    EtJWCcvXcAcyUCY.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, frost.
  • Location: Isle of Wight

    Hopefully it will be a while in reality before any mobile westerly works its way down to the trop.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Griff said:

    I guess it's all academic now? 

    Latest ecm zonal, with reversal 👍

    20210201200922-39e70515ae9a9cc7f3a764cb9b0baa31d31661b6.png

    Zonals here ta

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Griff said:

    Zonals here ta

    Looks like a fast recovery there but the influence of the SSW could continue for now?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    Looks like a fast recovery there but the influence of the SSW could continue for now?

    Uncertainty regarding strat and trop coupling, and also length of delay etc. 

    I would imagine it wouldn't be instantaneous? 🤷‍♂️ 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 hours ago, Don said:

    Looks like a fast recovery there but the influence of the SSW could continue for now?

    A return to westerlies in the strat could well flush the easterlies down to the trop more, but it will take time, the effects of the SSW will probably still be felt in the trop into March, in my opinion.  However, what that means for the UK is far from clear.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    People would do well to watch Mark's latest video and the reason why models are having a hard time right now. Specifically GFS. #maybe 😬

     

    Not sure why this got moved here during new model thread given its model related.

    Edited by Rapodo
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I am surprised no one posted the JMA strat graphs,..another warming on the way?

    pole10_nh.thumb.gif.b40666783a01c44987e637a381c94334.gifpole30_nh.thumb.gif.320d43b9b860c77848db6208099d5cee.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
    On 03/02/2021 at 00:02, Allseasons-si said:

    I am surprised no one posted the JMA strat graphs,..another warming on the way?

    pole10_nh.thumb.gif.b40666783a01c44987e637a381c94334.gifpole30_nh.thumb.gif.320d43b9b860c77848db6208099d5cee.gif

    I did see @Petagna (Marco Petagna, Uk Met office) comment on this yesterday:

    "The latest round of warming in stratosphere above N Pole appears to be coming to end at 10hpa.

    Notable extension of warmth observed down to the 30hpa #pressure level this time.

    The E'ly #SPV stratospheric polar vortex looks set to revert W today..strong vortex recovery in sight"

    Joe

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    50 minutes ago, jcw said:

    I did see @Petagna (Marco Petagna, Uk Met office) comment on this yesterday:

    "The latest round of warming in stratosphere above N Pole appears to be coming to end at 10hpa.

    Notable extension of warmth observed down to the 30hpa #pressure level this time.

    The E'ly #SPV stratospheric polar vortex looks set to revert W today..strong vortex recovery in sight"

    Joe

    I wonder how long surface conditions will continue to be affected, March perhaps? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    On 04/02/2021 at 15:24, Don said:

    I wonder how long surface conditions will continue to be affected, March perhaps? 

    I reckon about two full months from the original SSW, @Don so might play out until to early to mid march? 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    A case of the proverbial... 

    See you next Tuesday... To the return of the strong SPV... 

    20210208201443-cbe2d3882f3fd54f452bb582825e985bf69932de.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    25 minutes ago, Griff said:

    A case of the proverbial... 

    See you next Tuesday... To the return of the strong SPV... 

    20210208201443-cbe2d3882f3fd54f452bb582825e985bf69932de.png

    Interesting to see another dip next week any the recovery to some strength for early March perhaps leads us to an early start to spring with the Azores ridging northeast by late March if that stronger upper vortex descends 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    Interesting to see another dip next week any the recovery to some strength for early March perhaps leads us to an early start to spring with the Azores ridging northeast by late March if that stronger upper vortex descends 

    Perhaps still enough for a cold first half to March would you think as Mike stated in his post above?

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, Don said:

    Perhaps still enough for a cold first half to March would you think?

    I expect a couple, more downwelling waves before winter is done with 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    On 08/02/2021 at 20:16, Griff said:

    A case of the proverbial... 

    See you next Tuesday... To the return of the strong SPV... 

    20210208201443-cbe2d3882f3fd54f452bb582825e985bf69932de.png

    ECM zonal latest... 

    20210211201913-ad7e6122979fff28f473e1323a2e5d24d228e36b.png

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