Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

[Garthvader]

Hi all

Complete novice at weather models,charts etc i have a bit of an understanding of the models and charts and very limited understanding.....anyway just wondering if anyone could help out and post the chart or link that shows the temperature increases of the first/secondary/combined ssw....

 

Thanks again if nobody can be bothered with me ...... understood   

Peace out!

[lorenzo]

3 hours ago, Garthvader said:

Hi all

Complete novice at weather models,charts etc i have a bit of an understanding of the models and charts and very limited understanding.....anyway just wondering if anyone could help out and post the chart or link that shows the temperature increases of the first/secondary/combined ssw....

 

Thanks again if nobody can be bothered with me ...... understood   

Peace out!

Charts located here 

Data Services

ACD-EXT.GSFC.NASA.GOV

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Available annual Meteorological data

 

Also tend to see this one a lot in various places.. 

Climate System Monitoring / TCC

DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP

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Climate System Monitoring / TCC

 

[Garthvader]

Spot on thankyou appreciate your time

[Allseasons-Si]

 

[Singularity]

Hmm... let's say this was in the right ballpark. Good support for Scandinavian highs?

We've been seeing a few hints in the later stages of recent GFS runs but as usual the model tends to have the Atlantic trough muscling through to the UK. Tends to prove over-eager with that... seems cold/snow chasers aren't likely to get much rest soon!

After last winter's slumberfest, this one's proving to be a marathon.

[Phil Blake]

12 hours ago, Singularity said:

Hmm... let's say this was in the right ballpark. Good support for Scandinavian highs?

We've been seeing a few hints in the later stages of recent GFS runs but as usual the model tends to have the Atlantic trough muscling through to the UK. Tends to prove over-eager with that... seems cold/snow chasers aren't likely to get much rest soon!

After last winter's slumberfest, this one's proving to be a marathon.

With a vortex over Canada and a southerly tracking jet surely that would aid the development of Scandinavian heights

[damianslaw]

44 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

With a vortex over Canada and a southerly tracking jet surely that would aid the development of Scandinavian heights

Historically though don't quote me Scandi highs are more likely during second half of winter than first. Also traditionally the jet is weaker in second half of winter than first. Always expect colder more settled conditions in second half of winter than first and I include March.

[bluearmy]

13 hours ago, Singularity said:

Hmm... let's say this was in the right ballpark. Good support for Scandinavian highs?

We've been seeing a few hints in the later stages of recent GFS runs but as usual the model tends to have the Atlantic trough muscling through to the UK. Tends to prove over-eager with that... seems cold/snow chasers aren't likely to get much rest soon!

After last winter's slumberfest, this one's proving to be a marathon.

 

49 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

With a vortex over Canada and a southerly tracking jet surely that would aid the development of Scandinavian heights

This is part of the tentative signs I mentioned in the model thread yesterday morning ....

[sebastiaan1973]

A story by Andrew (Recretos) over the comparison 1929 and 2021...

http://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-weather-pattern-forecast-january-2021-usa-europe-fa/?fbclid=IwAR0j-bF1dTODXwaOlXAgCjCPY7U0G50Kejvs9G75ZGTbV6Of4BzWi69qecw

[Frostbite1980]

19 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

A story by Andrew (Recretos) over the comparison 1929 and 2021...

http://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-weather-pattern-forecast-january-2021-usa-europe-fa/?fbclid=IwAR0j-bF1dTODXwaOlXAgCjCPY7U0G50Kejvs9G75ZGTbV6Of4BzWi69qecw

Very interesting and bodes well going into Feb.

[bluearmy]

this gefs 00z is representative of recent gfs ops as jan ends ...... a weaker vortex but in a more traditional locale .....as others have said .....scandi ridge ???.

Edited January 17, 2021 by bluearmy

[JeffC]

Next warming incoming at 10 hPa

Edited January 17, 2021 by JeffC
Spelling

[IDO]

Marco expecting a recovery in the sPV going forward so we are relying on further warming's. We could do with a Rossby wave pattern developing in the trop before it recovers sufficiently, the lack of trop forcing in the last few weeks has def stopped what could have been a decisive sPV collapse.

How all that pans out in Feb and March bearing in mind the unusual nature of this SSWE is anyone's guess?

[Don]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

Marco expecting a recovery in the sPV going forward so we are relying on further warming's. We could do with a Rossby wave pattern developing in the trop before it recovers sufficiently, the lack of trop forcing in the last few weeks has def stopped what could have been a decisive sPV collapse.

How all that pans out in Feb and March bearing in mind the unusual nature of this SSWE is anyone's guess?

Looking like a slow recovery though and I thought further minor warmings were being predicted?

[Frostbite1980]

3 hours ago, IDO said:

Marco expecting a recovery in the sPV going forward so we are relying on further warming's. We could do with a Rossby wave pattern developing in the trop before it recovers sufficiently, the lack of trop forcing in the last few weeks has def stopped what could have been a decisive sPV collapse.

How all that pans out in Feb and March bearing in mind the unusual nature of this SSWE is anyone's guess?

No disrespect to Marco but he has been saying about the SSW possibly causing cold air into the uk etc when it first started and it didnt work out like that so i will take this tweet as a pinch of salt....no idea comes to mind 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Frostbite1980

[Don]

16 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

No disrespect to Marco but he has been saying about the SSW possibly causing cold air into the uk etc when it first started and it didnt work out like that so i will take this tweet as a pinch of salt....no idea comes to mind 

I think that's the point, no one really knows how things are going to pan out.

[Griff]

ECMWF latest zonal winds... 

[sebastiaan1973]

Excellent EC46. Can't remove the Cohen tweet.

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[Bricriu]

8 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Excellent EC46. Can't remove the Cohen tweet.

 

So another sign we might be looking east in to February?

[sebastiaan1973]

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

So another sign we might be looking east in to February?

Yes.

[Griff]

Just now, Griff said:

 

 

13 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Excellent EC46. Can't remove the Cohen tweet.

 

@MattHugo has just tweeted too.

Matt please come back, talk to us! 

[Vikos]

Yep, those background signals... along with the EC charts of 30hpa.

[Bricriu]

It would seem to me the para in deepest FI  is suggesting something like this might happen. Lets just see  if the other models start to pick it up. If so we could see upgrades on the model ouput in the next few days.

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

@bluearmy curious for your thoughts on this... Ta  

 

Anyone competent to have a shot at dissecting and evaluating this? 

Thanks. 

@chionomaniac

[Bricriu]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Anyone competent to have a shot at dissecting and evaluating this? 

Thanks. 

@chionomaniac

Not me. I got stuck at WAF. Wave forcing??