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Starting to look like the troposphere and stratosphere are heading in different directions in the next couple of weeks at least Polar Vortex status and predictions Both GFS and CFS app

Tropospheric pre cursors for wave 2 forcing remain good. Lag times often up to 4 weeks so some of this data fits. While people gnash their teeth over on the model thread about warm Euro or even better

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24 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Now showing up on the gfs op anim_hmt6.gif

Oh that's interesting!!

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14 hours ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Could be a interesting mid to late November early December ️ 

something stirring in the strat.

was pretty confident of a Canadian warming event this season.

although less confidence now.

so now its a race to get enough disruption to the polar vortex.

its an odd season what with failed east qbo.

but id be very surprised if we dont have a few stratospheric events this coming season.

hoping for mjo phase 8 or phase 1 especially into and later part of November.

but realistically its also possible the vortex will return on steroids.

but so far there are some wave attack's being shown the more the better and stronger the better.

hopefully we can knock the vortex away from its usual residency,

and have a Scandinavian dominated mother vortex.

JN192-5.thumb.gif.b36e1407ebf25ff180c3bbb793cacfc3.gif

jma wants early wave attack.

 

gfsnh-10-330.thumb.png.d25ee9cbc88b36b287d109ef6bd7ee6c.pnggensnh-0-7-372.thumb.png.760e9b2dcf66ba6e1e4087051a131924.png

  both gfs have wave attacks but further on.

but regardless worth keeping an eye as this season gets under way.

 

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Suspiciously quiet here... If a record strong PV was forecast I'm sure we'd be writing off winter immediately, but what's to bet that if I post the following and comment 'so far decidedly average' I'll be met by 'just you wait until December'...? 😉 

In any case, average for now. Today is Saturday, last post was Wednesday and this came out on Thursday. 

20201017182257-cc0cb494e9326cd821bc17f38bd14485d781a386.png

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2 hours ago, Griff said:

Suspiciously quiet here... If a record strong PV was forecast I'm sure we'd be writing off winter immediately, but what's to bet that if I post the following and comment 'so far decidedly average' I'll be met by 'just you wait until December'...? 😉 

In any case, average for now. Today is Saturday, last post was Wednesday and this came out on Thursday. 

20201017182257-cc0cb494e9326cd821bc17f38bd14485d781a386.png

If it stays 'average' then that would not preclude the trop being able to continue running the show into December. I notice a few members drop off a cliff into December too, with very few rising into the very strong category.

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On 18/10/2020 at 05:28, Griff said:

Suspiciously quiet here... If a record strong PV was forecast I'm sure we'd be writing off winter immediately, but what's to bet that if I post the following and comment 'so far decidedly average' I'll be met by 'just you wait until December'...? 😉 

In any case, average for now. Today is Saturday, last post was Wednesday and this came out on Thursday. 

20201017182257-cc0cb494e9326cd821bc17f38bd14485d781a386.png

At this stage of the game, no news is good news.

Average allows for a large spread of potential options, depending on what the climate does.

Looking at the clues we have:

02mb2525.thumb.png.ea7c3305df868f0712b9c6bb537e5d0d.png

Tropical upper stratosphere is currently colder than average, that indicates a stronger than normal Brewer-Dobson circulation, pushing ozone towards the NH Strat polar vortex.

So again we certainly have the capacity for inducing a SSW, it's just whether the tropospheric factors allow for it.

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5 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

At this stage of the game, no news is good news.

Average allows for a large spread of potential options, depending on what the climate does.

Looking at the clues we have:

02mb2525.thumb.png.ea7c3305df868f0712b9c6bb537e5d0d.png

Tropical upper stratosphere is currently colder than average, that indicates a stronger than normal Brewer-Dobson circulation, pushing ozone towards the NH Strat polar vortex.

So again we certainly have the capacity for inducing a SSW, it's just whether the tropospheric factors allow for it.

I'm certainly keeping an eye towards the Urals over the coming weeks...

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Those winters were pretty poor though.

The Decembers at least brought some wintry fayre of varying degrees. Dec 70 was cold and snowy at times. Dec 99 though overall mild brought cold NW flow mid month, petered out near Christmas. Dec 07 was a bear copy of 06, a lengthy spell of high pressure and surface cold mid month to Christmas, became very mild and wet month end after a wet mild start, not snowy though, but at least seasonal.

Admittedly remainder of the three winters were wet and mild.

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21 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The Decembers at least brought some wintry fayre of varying degrees. Dec 70 was cold and snowy at times. Dec 99 though overall mild brought cold NW flow mid month, petered out near Christmas. Dec 07 was a bear copy of 06, a lengthy spell of high pressure and surface cold mid month to Christmas, became very mild and wet month end after a wet mild start, not snowy though, but at least seasonal.

Admittedly remainder of the three winters were wet and mild.

Yes, I believe December 1970 had a white Christmas, central southern England had a snowfall on 18th December 1999 and December 2007 had inversion cold as you alluded to.  Winter 2007/08 was also followed by some wintry weather in March and April.

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Yes, I believe December 1970 had a white Christmas, central southern England had a snowfall on 18th December 1999 and December 2007 had inversion cold as you alluded to.  Winter 2007/08 was also followed by some wintry weather in March and April.

Early January 2008 also had two goes at bringing wintry weather. What looked like could've been a monster easterly in the first week, magically disappeared into an Atlantic mess soon after (not sure what went wrong there....) then a surprise snowfall on the 11th. The PV had its work cut out to overcome a huge high to the east, but still managed.

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9 hours ago, MP-R said:

Early January 2008 also had two goes at bringing wintry weather. What looked like could've been a monster easterly in the first week, magically disappeared into an Atlantic mess soon after (not sure what went wrong there....) then a surprise snowfall on the 11th. The PV had its work cut out to overcome a huge high to the east, but still managed.

Yes, I remember that in January 2008.  

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This kind of view doesnt give much hope in blocked winter.Even the tropospheric configuration is not showing any signs of tertuberations and upper vortex just intensifies. 

gfsnh-10-384.png

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34 minutes ago, jules216 said:

This kind of view doesnt give much hope in blocked winter.Even the tropospheric configuration is not showing any signs of tertuberations and upper vortex just intensifies. 

gfsnh-10-384.png

Sounds like you’ve given up on this winter?

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32 minutes ago, jules216 said:

This kind of view doesnt give much hope in blocked winter.Even the tropospheric configuration is not showing any signs of tertuberations and upper vortex just intensifies. 

gfsnh-10-384.png

Yes, the decent trop patterns that were advertised just a few days ago have all but faded now. 

There seems to have been a fairly rapid deterioration of winter prospects over the last couple of weeks...most likely due to the ever strengthening Nina. We just can't catch a break! A weak event would have set us up fairly nicely given the point in time of the solar cycle.

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, the decent trop patterns that were advertised just a few days ago have all but faded now. 

There seems to have been a fairly rapid deterioration of winter prospects over the last couple of weeks...most likely due to the ever strengthening Nina. We just can't catch a break! A weak event would have set us up fairly nicely given the point in time of the solar cycle.

Oh dear, this isn’t good to hear from you.....  You must be getting concerned about having to eat that sock!

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh dear, this isn’t good to hear from you.....

Looking at the strat and trop forecast charts, it looks as though there will be an easy, early connect. Given the characteristics of the SPV at present I think we can begin to count out an outlandish start to the winter season (1995/1996 2010/2011 came up as analogues initially). 

Whilst i'm relatively confident we'll see some cool/cold PM incursions from time to time (providing some snow to prone NW areas), I think the chances of a more deep seated nationwide cold spell has diminished somewhat for the early winter period. Though I'm willing to go along with the notion of perhaps some later season cold via a possible SSW?

 

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8 minutes ago, Don said:

You must be getting concerned about having to eat that sock!

Not worried about the sock as I don't think we'll be significantly milder than average overall!

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22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not worried about the sock as I don't think we'll be significantly milder than average overall!

The failed E-QBO probably hasn’t helped either.  You always need a bit of luck to get a cold UK winter and we certainly haven’t had that so far.  A shame given where we are in the solar cycle, although it will still be reasonably favourable next year.  However, there will  no doubt be something else to scupper our chances!

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23 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh dear, this isn’t good to hear from you.....  You must be getting concerned about having to eat that sock!

I wouldn't worry about it, Don... Sorry Crewe, but how many strat, ENSO, or any other winter forecasts (during October) have ever yielded fruit? I reckon I'll just wait and see.. or leave it up to Michael Fish!🤓

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