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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    20 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    That's why I never pay 'signs' much attention, Don! Though, having said that, I did get a tad carried-away with the high expectations for winter 2018-19!:oldsad:

    So did I lol!  

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    It has been interesting to see ECM strat disruption undermodelled this season so far. The wave 1 warming we have been going through was upgraded at short range, and again we have an upgrade in wave 2

    This might be a good time to remind everyone that the Stratosphere charts on Meteociel will not show you whether there is a split in the polar vortex or not - the polar vortex is not just a chunk of c

    As always, a great animation of the SPV from Andrej.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Hello 

    Any news on our "friend" the Indian Dipole this winter as it was at its highest for 6 decades last winter? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    24 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Hello 

    Any news on our "friend" the Indian Dipole this winter as it was at its highest for 6 decades last winter? 

    Weakly negative refreshingly at present but predicted to go to neutral or weakly positive through the winter

    Screenshot_20201004-160310_YouTube.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I'd not get overly excited, while neutral-positive does no harm for the QBO the number of +1 standardised QBO values in SSW winters is low. 

    Granted too many people believe a SSW is the be all and end all. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    15 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

     

    I was just reading this on twitter, very interesting and tentative signs for some potential excitement, this side of Christmas. 

    The comment of the effect of blocking and wave 2 action in relation to February 2018 definitely gets my interest. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    4 hours ago, Griff said:

    I was just reading this on twitter, very interesting and tentative signs for some potential excitement, this side of Christmas. 

    The comment of the effect of blocking and wave 2 action in relation to February 2018 definitely gets my interest. 

    Mid Nov 96 through to early Jan 97 was cold throughout in the main. A flip then happened mid Jan and the rest of the winter was very mild and atlantic driven. I think of it as a toned down version of the events of mid Nov - late Dec 10.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    15 minutes ago, snowking said:

    On the 7th day of October, the ECMWF gave to me...

    https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202010050000

    The 45 day 10mb ensemble plot for free

    "Thin blue lines represent the individual ensemble members, thick blue line the ensemble mean; red lines show the mean and the 10th and 90th percentile of the model climate." 

    In a good way it looks quite average? 🤔 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

     

    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    "Thin blue lines represent the individual ensemble members, thick blue line the ensemble mean; red lines show the mean and the 10th and 90th percentile of the model climate." 

    In a good way it looks quite average? 🤔 

    Yeah it is broadly in line with the extended GFS outlook, very slightly below average as an ensemble mean but nothing too much to write home about in either direction:

    gefs_extended_u1060_timeseries.thumb.png.50d0a06f9e8e051f0be1de361924608f.png

    I'm still absorbing the wealth of new data which has become available, but another one that caught my eye (and is broadly in line with expectations of a Nina winter with a front-loaded potential feel to it)

    ps2png-gorax-green-004-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-TByMpS.thumb.png.5d9d46e4424cdf4c54b602baa0bf0614.png

    Certainly a tendency there towards a negative NAO through October and November, slightly less so for December, and then Jan and Feb look to tend towards more of a +NAO outlook

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    4 hours ago, snowking said:

     

    ps2png-gorax-green-004-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-TByMpS.thumb.png.5d9d46e4424cdf4c54b602baa0bf0614.png

    Certainly a tendency there towards a negative NAO through October and November, slightly less so for December, and then Jan and Feb look to tend towards more of a +NAO outlook

     

    A winter for the bin if that’s the case. Hopefully some changes between now and then to favour a cold core of winter. Something like what the CFS has shown for the best part of two months would be good with a notable -NAO trending towards +NAO through February and into March.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 hour ago, MP-R said:

    A winter for the bin if that’s the case. Hopefully some changes between now and then to favour a cold core of winter. Something like what the CFS has shown for the best part of two months would be good with a notable -NAO trending towards +NAO through February and into March.

    Is there a significant difference, is the latter much weaker? 

    To my very untrained eye there seemed to be similarities, which at the very least sounds like they support each other rather than being at complete odds with each other? 

    Bizarre as this may sound on a public forum, I'm just curious, not trying to ruffle any feathers. 

    Ta. 

     

    FYI 

     

     

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    All signals point at the moment to that front loaded winter, and modelling CFS and ECM to an extent backing that up.  Will be interesting to see GloSea5 in a few days, in particular how it has shifted from the September charts.  

    But we’ve chased front loaded winters before, and just before it is about to snow the PV has got its mojo together.  Cautiously optimistic for some of the UK this winter, so far, though. Amazed if we get anything notable in Oxfordshire though, really needs an easterly with a cold pool to deliver here...

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    All signals point at the moment to that front loaded winter, and modelling CFS and ECM to an extent backing that up.  Will be interesting to see GloSea5 in a few days, in particular how it has shifted from the September charts.  

    But we’ve chased front loaded winters before, and just before it is about to snow the PV has got its mojo together.  Cautiously optimistic for some of the UK this winter, so far, though. Amazed if we get anything notable in Oxfordshire though, really needs an easterly with a cold pool to deliver here...

    Oh Mike don't set me off about easterlies...

    PM airflow OK for elevated NW but in recent years ssts have meant uppers have needed to be like -8/9 and that's for Oldham on the pennine upslopes at 200m asl..

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    if if if we do see PM shots ssts are most certainly worth monitoring..

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.511f77c23cd52be6fea0c29c58e5e673.png

    Don't forget folks - we now have access to the ECM forecast data for zonal winds at 10hpa. Will hopefully be a useful tool alongside the GFS/CFS forecasts as we go into the silly season!

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    3B23F9C4-21A8-418C-B7EE-A263A2DC64FE.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    Looks like the EQBO at 10hpa is finally going to start to strengthen a bit more and descend too.

    Current Zonal Wind Situation

    image.thumb.png.634e3833ffcce09c19d57f391c6e77c7.png

    You can see the annoying WQBO occupying the areas between 20hpa and 70hpa. However take a look at the 240 hours forecast chart below

    image.thumb.png.6d329fcefa2d7be217686c60eadda0f9.png

    You should notice how the area along the equator at 10hpa has a deeper amount of that darker blue patch and you should also be able to notice that the WQBO is slightly lower down than in the current situation chart. The other piece of good news is the loss of EQBO from 80 to 100hpa which should make room for the WQBO to descend into

    The following chart also looks promising for the quick progression through this WQBO

    Untitled.thumb.jpg.53339f2830a1d829b1683899eb5a4079.jpg

    Notice just how quickly we have progressed since June 2020 through the WQBO section of this chart and the September 2020 progress was rapid compared with the summer. This chart now shows a stronger WQBO than we had at the equivalent point in 2019 but it shouldn't progress much further in this direction as the fastest speeds at this stage are those 2 lines you can see just to the left and above the current position which means we should bend downwards soon towards the EQBO section of the chart

    The QBO chart itself shows the progress we have made with the WQBO especially

    Untitled2.thumb.jpg.7b7d88d79bc920827cee4ca3b7462409.jpg

    1 - The 10hpa EQBO is still there and at the moment has shown little sign of much strengthening on this chart but based on the zonal wind forecast above it should start to show more deeper blues in the coming days and if the forecast is also to be believed we should see this blue area expand downwards slightly

    2 - The WQBO has got quite deep now and is clearly approaching its peak for this unexpected event. Although the top end of it appears to be sticking to 20hpa the lower end has really got a move on recently and has got down to almost 80hpa now. This should mean the EQBO will descend soon as when the WQBO base gets to around 80 to 90hpa the EQBO above should begin to replace the WQBO at the top

    3 - I couldn't help but notice this big EQBO wind burst around 100hpa. I don't know what would cause such a wind burst at that level unless it is a reaction to the easterly anomaly earlier in the year and how the core of this has now reached 100hpa. I don't know whether this will have any effect on the EQBO at 10hpa or not but only time will tell

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Really grateful nothing extraordinary is happening "up north" and up high, or this thread would be buzzing! 🤪

     

    (To be honest I'm out of my depth here most of the time, but I'm showing restraint from reposting other people's twitter content...) 

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
    10-day-weather-forecast-europe-united-st
    WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

    A massive advance of high-pressure systems over the North Pole will help to break down...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.9814c79846031adc8c8637fcee30cbfd.png

    Sharp drop in zonal wind speeds as expected with -AO/-NAO pattern setting in, with a bounce back up towards average expected as we head towards the end of October.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    You don't necessarily need an SSW to bring cold to the UK and winter 2010/11 is a case point...

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    This isn’t a forecast or anything merely just peaked my interest and for monitoring but I noticed a few days ago on the outer reaches of the GEFS hints of possible strat warming developing, I’m not sure but would think October warming’s are very rare? And fairly similar for most November’s? Anyway will see when the 06z finishes rolling out but here’s what I mean from the 00z 7CBF94CB-51B9-4BF1-AE17-FEB4A6BC5E07.thumb.png.bdd6340dfa3094504d88f911eb0abac5.png20839427-4BB2-47B7-B701-DA54C8666AA0.thumb.png.c7642c4b4067784ee663e20b535616c6.pngA5135AF4-428A-4644-B237-61971336A33F.thumb.png.f77f6f0c1b86230a4b84a8d6ad0dd437.png4D47D267-F9E3-40F9-9CB3-F1C0C34EDAA3.thumb.png.276c2094bec04556efb84c596eb4ec38.png23910E39-C208-46D4-814A-B9ABE21C139E.thumb.png.102423b759c716ec913ee883c1dfb960.png0667C322-D264-4FA2-ADD5-CC67D1DBB864.thumb.png.53c7edd4410080a969ebee7d0ea75e2b.png

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