Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Two months too late, but there you are!

Maybe so and will likely ruin spring but could be a good omen for a decent summer, remember the Feb 2018 split vortex followed by the colder weather late February till late April before that decent late spring and large part of summer 2018.

[Don]

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Known as the law of sod ……

Yep! 

12 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe so and will likely ruin spring but could be a good omen for a decent summer, remember the Feb 2018 split vortex followed by the colder weather late February till late April before that decent late spring and large part of summer 2018.

I do indeed and if we are to have a hot summer, I hope it's not of the humid variety!

[topo]

Too late

[bluearmy]

19 hours ago, topo said:

Too late

Sadly yes but the ec 12z today shows what might be described as a quick response as the AO looks to turn sharply negative beyond day 10 with a possible northerly plunge for nw europe to follow …..

[stodge]

The key is as the zonal winds decrease, the opportunities for amplification increase.

One of the big trends looking beyond the end of the month is to drop the trough into Scandinavia and pull heights west into mid-Atlantic. I'm not talking classic retrogression but this allows LP to swing south to the east of the British Isles introducing spells of NE winds from Scandinavia during April.

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, stodge said:

The key is as the zonal winds decrease, the opportunities for amplification increase.

One of the big trends looking beyond the end of the month is to drop the trough into Scandinavia and pull heights west into mid-Atlantic. I'm not talking classic retrogression but this allows LP to swing south to the east of the British Isles introducing spells of NE winds from Scandinavia during April.

All quite normal really..

[Allseasons-Si]

Holy smolie's 

[RabbitEars]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Holy smolie's 

For novices can you explain what thos graph means? Please? 

[Don]

19 minutes ago, RabbitEars said:

For novices can you explain what thos graph means? Please? 

The Polar Vortex is dead until next winter?

[Cloud 10]

Quite an impressive strat warming starting at the moment with a wind reveral developing through all layers in the next week or so,with the remaining Polar vortex setting up shop near Scandi,which will likely provide quite a shock to the system for many after this weeks warmth.

 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Quite an impressive strat warming starting at the moment with a wind reveral developing through all layers in the next week or so,with the remaining Polar vortex setting up shop near Scandi,which will likely provide quite a shock to the system for many after this weeks warmth.

 

As is often the case with the nwp, it’s taken the reversal pretty much happening for it to adjust to just how much the trop will be affected …… 

im impressed with how a roaring spv, breaking date records with no forecast notable weakening just a couple of weeks ago has been taken down 

[Don]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

As is often the case with the nwp, it’s taken the reversal pretty much happening for it to adjust to just how much the trop will be affected …… 

im impressed with how a roaring spv, breaking date records with no forecast notable weakening just a couple of weeks ago has been taken down 

I would have been more impressed if the PV had been taken down a couple of months ago!

[phil nw.]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

As is often the case with the nwp, it’s taken the reversal pretty much happening for it to adjust to just how much the trop will be affected …… 

im impressed with how a roaring spv, breaking date records with no forecast notable weakening just a couple of weeks ago has been taken down 

The return of the the sun over the pole a big influence and will now kick it into touch.

[stodge]

3 hours ago, phil nw. said:

The return of the the sun over the pole a big influence and will now kick it into touch.

You say that and I'm sure it's valid but this has been an extraordinary collapse in zonal wind speeds in a very short period. A prolonged and strong warming has been the cause but it wasn't so long ago forecasters were speculating about a much more gradual end to the PV season with the vortex still powerful into April. 

In a season which has seen very little warming, we get all our warmings at once (so to speak) at the end of the season. 

Whether this has impacts through the summer I have no clue but I suspect it will play a role of sorts in April and May.

[bluearmy]

Chance over this weekend to set a negative flow date record. Thereafter this thread will indeed head into hibernation for a while ….

[SqueakheartLW]

Looks like the QBO is finally on the move now after remaining almost stuck in the same place for some time now

For a while now I had thought we were going to do something similar to what happened in 2000/2001 with a long EQBO but it seems the new WQBO higher up has suddenly got different ideas to that.

We could be seeing the switch from EQBO to WQBO in a matter of weeks if the newer more rapid descent doesn't slow down and it appears certain that winter 2002/23 is going to be a WQBO winter

 

Not all entirely bad news though as if we get another La NIna combined with WQBO this is apparently a good combination to get a SSW and also high solar activity which is very likely to be the case during winter 2022/23 combined with a WQBO usually weakens the vortex anyway

[damianslaw]

44 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Looks like the QBO is finally on the move now after remaining almost stuck in the same place for some time now

For a while now I had thought we were going to do something similar to what happened in 2000/2001 with a long EQBO but it seems the new WQBO higher up has suddenly got different ideas to that.

We could be seeing the switch from EQBO to WQBO in a matter of weeks if the newer more rapid descent doesn't slow down and it appears certain that winter 2002/23 is going to be a WQBO winter

 

Not all entirely bad news though as if we get another La NIna combined with WQBO this is apparently a good combination to get a SSW and also high solar activity which is very likely to be the case during winter 2022/23 combined with a WQBO usually weakens the vortex anyway

Solar activity I think is fairly low we are only slowly climbing out of solar min. The climbing out of solar min and east qbo was a bust for cold and snow this winter..

[philglossop]

Blimey the WQBO has descended at quite the rate of knots the past few days. Be interesting to know the figure for April- I suspect perhaps still a strong minus but not as much as March. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Anyone know what is happening with the ECM stratospheric daily updates?

Stratosphere diagnostics • Atmospheric Dynamics • Department of Earth Sciences

WWW.GEO.FU-BERLIN.DE

These stopped updating after 19/04/2022 and no new charts or data have appeared since then

[SqueakheartLW]

On 02/05/2022 at 05:31, philglossop said:

Blimey the WQBO has descended at quite the rate of knots the past few days. Be interesting to know the figure for April- I suspect perhaps still a strong minus but not as much as March. 

Your prediction of a less negative figure was correct but only just

30mb QBO March 2022     -26.34

30mb QBO April 2022        -26.20

[philglossop]

17 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Your prediction of a less negative figure was correct but only just

30mb QBO March 2022     -26.34

30mb QBO April 2022        -26.20

That’s surprising. I expect that’s the peak over for this EQBO then? 

[philglossop]

The W QBO is really on the match down into the stratosphere. No doubt winter will be WQBO and probably a mature one at that.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, philglossop said:

The W QBO is really on the match down into the stratosphere. No doubt winter will be WQBO and probably a mature one at that.

I would have thought so (unless the W-QBO fails which looks pretty unlikely!).  Will probably have bad implications for next winter but that's something for another day!

[SqueakheartLW]

Latest qbo figure for May 2022 is -19.70.

I expect with that rapid wqbo descent the June figure could be close to 0 or possibly even a + figure.

[philglossop]

It’s a heck of a turnaround if it goes +