Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

[sebastiaan1973]

New 
@CopernicusECMWF
 products released to our seasonal portal today - including QBO (30mb) forecasts.  Interesting differences even after bias correction, and relatively poor skill from JMA and CMCC.  (No 30mb data from NCEP/CFSv2 and one of the ECCC models) https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1433791549305933826

Please notice some extreme negative QBO values

[sebastiaan1973]

http://CanSIPS Model - Tropical Tidbits

Cansips. Best month seems to be January. 

Edited September 4, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

http://CanSIPS Model - Tropical Tidbits

Cansips. Best month seems to be January. 

Looks very dry Dec and Jan.

 

[Don]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

http://CanSIPS Model - Tropical Tidbits

Cansips. Best month seems to be January. 

February could also hold some interest, although that high needs to be further north for anything sustained.  Too far off of course to be taken seriously!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Latest EC seasonal is not great. Deepening +NAO as winter progresses.

ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Latest EC seasonal is not great. Deepening +NAO as winter progresses.

ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

That looks really really poor.

[SqueakheartLW]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Latest EC seasonal is not great. Deepening +NAO as winter progresses.

ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

 

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That looks really really poor.

Didn't every model last year all go for +NAO too then look what happened

[SqueakheartLW]

On 04/09/2021 at 13:43, sebastiaan1973 said:

New 
@CopernicusECMWF
 products released to our seasonal portal today - including QBO (30mb) forecasts.  Interesting differences even after bias correction, and relatively poor skill from JMA and CMCC.  (No 30mb data from NCEP/CFSv2 and one of the ECCC models) https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1433791549305933826

Please notice some extreme negative QBO values

Just imagine if UKMO's QBO forecast came true. Those values would be record breaking since the highest monthly QBO value I have seen in the record is -29.55 from November 2005

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

Didn't every model last year all go for +NAO too then look what happened

Possibly.

I'm just describing the update.

Infact, I don't want to look at it anymore. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 05/09/2021 at 20:59, SqueakheartLW said:

 

Didn't every model last year all go for +NAO too then look what happened

The issue here is that at the moment they are following the same trend. Some blocking early doors then a swift descent into a raging +NAO.

There has to be some weight to that outcome at present.

I wonder if they are picking up on a strengthening Nina...that's something that would cause that sort of winter pattern ala 10/11

EDIT: Just checked...it's not forecasting a deep Nina but it's an extensive basin wide one. I think the thing that is working against us is the very warm anomaly in the NE Pacific

ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by CreweCold

[Don]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

EDIT: Just checked...it's not forecasting a deep Nina but it's an extensive basin wide one. I think the thing that is working against us is the very warm anomaly in the NE Pacific

ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

Yes that warm anomaly in the NE Pacific needs to do one!  Also, not overly keen on how this September is shaping up currently either......

Edited September 5, 2021 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 05/09/2021 at 21:53, Don said:

Yes that warm anomaly in the NE Pacific needs to do one!  Also, not overly keen on how this September is shaping up currently either......

The longevity of it is quite something. I believe it was forecast to weaken this year. As it is it may well scupper our best overall chance at a decent winter this decade.

[northwestsnow]

Must admit I'm quite taken aback by that update

Was hoping for something better than that!

Still,early days , hopefully better news in  October ...

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 05/09/2021 at 22:10, northwestsnow said:

Must admit I'm quite taken aback by that update

Was hoping for something better than that!

Still,early days , hopefully better news in  October ...

CFS is in broad agreement...From this in Nov

To this by Jan

 

You can see the HP intensify in the NE Pacific in response to warm SSTs

 

[MP-R]

47 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes that warm anomaly in the NE Pacific needs to do one!  Also, not overly keen on how this September is shaping up currently either......

One crumb of comfort in the back of my mind is that this September is currently looking like the complete opposite to a La Nina / developing La Nina September, so the winter may also not follow suit.

That's a purely amateur view though.

[northwestsnow]

I'm not going to concern myself with the LRF'S in early September to be honest.

Oct far more important IMO ,looking at the above charts though, I doubt UKMET will offer much crumbs for coldies either.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 05/09/2021 at 23:23, northwestsnow said:

I'm not going to concern myself with the LRF'S in early September to be honest.

Oct far more important IMO ,looking at the above charts though, I doubt UKMET will offer much crumbs for coldies either.

 

2010 seems like a lifetime ago now doesn't it

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

2010 seems like a lifetime ago now doesn't it

It does...

Think 2012 /13 was decent if I remember rightly...

TBH November looks seasonal which I always enjoy.

If we got a cold November and Christmas period I'd take that now personally.

Hope we get a cold December .

[jules216]

Il take that EC seasonal,chance of Scandi troughing. Seasonals lately tend to underestimate the southerly extent of cold pooling,just think of spring 2021. One good MJO timing and flow can easily become N-S axis. 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 05/09/2021 at 23:36, northwestsnow said:

It does...

Think 2012 /13 was decent if I remember rightly...

TBH November looks seasonal which I always enjoy.

If we got a cold November and Christmas period I'd take that now personally.

Hope we get a cold December .

Agree, at this point I’d take a cold November and December; to be honest this winter has been looking front loaded for a while now.

[sebastiaan1973]

George Delanjian op Twitter: "Interestingly enough, the SEAS5 forecast pattern for Jan 2022 is in close alignment with the Day 0 pattern for a stratospheric polar vortex stretching event. It's too early for this to mean anything, but it could imply a potential SPV stretching event sometime in Jan. @judah47

Twitter / ?

T.CO

https://twitter.com/weather_chest/status/1434589873390989314

[Don]

17 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS is in broad agreement...From this in Nov

To this by Jan

 

You can see the HP intensify in the NE Pacific in response to warm SSTs

 

There seems to be a number of models singing from the same hymn sheet now.  Just hope it's the wrong one!  Very early days anyway but I would like to see those warm anomalies in the NE Pacific dissipate, otherwise like you say could scupper our chances of a genuinely cold winter which would be a pity, especially considering we have a number of other factors in our favor.

[damianslaw]

I said warm pool of air NE Pacific just one factor.. we saw last year a similar warm core.. I feel we are in a different place than many a year.. the base state since December has been for a very quiet Atlantic. Not saying this will stick right through the winter but I look at signs in November rather than September for indication how things may pan out. 

Last year I think all seasonals went for very mild, or at least majority and we had a cool/average one.

Edited September 6, 2021 by damianslaw

[Catacol]

15 hours ago, jules216 said:

Il take that EC seasonal,chance of Scandi troughing. Seasonals lately tend to underestimate the southerly extent of cold pooling,just think of spring 2021. One good MJO timing and flow can easily become N-S axis. 

 

 

Cant quite see it Jules. Looks like a long wave pattern set to give Europe a mild one. Average perhaps over Scandy. We are probably, once again, looking at putting our eggs into a strat warming event to shake things up. As others have said - a substantial north pacific high is signalled and we don't want that. Look perhaps for more of a low over the aleutians in the autumn to help setup strat disruption. If it doesn't then we best get praying, because this mid winter ensemble mean is about as bad as it could be for cold lovers.

It has been a long time since the UK had a proper cold spell not created by a strat warming. 

But as others have said - it is still early.

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

I said warm pool of air NE Pacific just one factor.. we saw last year a similar warm core.. I feel we are in a different place than many a year.. the base state since December has been for a very quiet Atlantic. Not saying this will stick right through the winter but I look at signs in November rather than September for indication how things may pan out. 

Last year I think all seasonals went for very mild, or at least majority and we had a cool/average one.

Caused by a significant strat warming....