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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020


SqueakheartLW

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Of course - it can’t stay easterly for too long in winter ——— this isn’t  ‘the day after tomorrow’.  Expect westerly to return approx 20th jan. hopefully they won’t become too strong

Yes, it’s a displacement but there has always been a v short lived split preceding it. The much vaunted split in mid month looks like being another v temp split high up at 10 hpa and properly split in the mid strat  (50hpa)

There are definitely two different vortices there though? Or am I being daft?

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Just looked at how all of the 06z GFS runs end

With a new warming to some degree

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No new warming

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GFS is roughly 50/50 split on whether there is a new warming at the end of the runs and it is the op run that comes out with the biggest new warming too. In general those that develop the strongest vortex at the end are the runs that in general feature this new warming so this stratospheric story looks to be far from over even if it doesn't look as good from GFS now as it did a few days ago

GFS was the first to pick up on the displacement of the vortex rather than a split vortex. Is it now first to pick up on the quick recovery of the vortex, I hope not

Is the parallel on board with this same idea of a quick recovery of the vortex

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The parallel still has that second warming showing at +204 hours

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It too is on board with the recovery of the vortex but also has hints of this new warming which would be the 3rd warming if it comes off and with a vortex only just trying to get back together again another warming at this stage would probably see the vortex destroyed

JMA doesn't see any particularly quick recovery of the vortex but does park it in a bad place for us by the end of the run

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GEM just in general weakens the vortex throughout the run and in the end has it displaced over NW Siberia/NE Europe

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The NASA run ends with the vortex right where we don't want it

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The FIM is the first run so far that ends with a split vortex but one piece of it is above Greenland

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Certainly these stratospheric forecasts don't look as good as they did for cold but if you go by what the ECM predicted for zonal winds 10 days ago and how far out it was then things could easily change for the better again yet

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Just tweeted by Dr. Amy Butler:

Excited for the upcoming SSW tomorrow, which will occur despite somewhat lackluster tropospheric wave driving (eddy heat fluxes). Whether the vortex further weakens in another 10 days as some forecasts suggests may ultimately decide whether this event has much surface impact.

1795423208_HeatFluxWaves1-3100hPa04Jan21.thumb.jpg.d5f2de778d1dd17e93be0eef70bb809c.jpg

Here is the upcoming annular mode forecast, which shows a large perturbation in the upper stratosphere. However, most events with persistent surface impacts have stronger perturbations at lower levels. For now, the forecast is for negative NAO through mid-month.

948485904_NAMGFSFcast04Jan21.thumb.jpg.bbcdd00006c9dccfdb3f5849c7f3e3ad.jpg

Source: Twitter @DrAHButler

Edited by Blessed Weather
NAM tweet added.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
28 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Just tweeted by Dr. Amy Butler:

Excited for the upcoming SSW tomorrow, which will occur despite somewhat lackluster tropospheric wave driving (eddy heat fluxes). Whether the vortex further weakens in another 10 days as some forecasts suggests may ultimately decide whether this event has much surface impact.

1795423208_HeatFluxWaves1-3100hPa04Jan21.thumb.jpg.d5f2de778d1dd17e93be0eef70bb809c.jpg

Here is the upcoming annular mode forecast, which shows a large perturbation in the upper stratosphere. However, most events with persistent surface impacts have stronger perturbations at lower levels. For now, the forecast is for negative NAO through mid-month.

948485904_NAMGFSFcast04Jan21.thumb.jpg.bbcdd00006c9dccfdb3f5849c7f3e3ad.jpg

Source: Twitter @DrAHButler

I suspect that lower +ve anomaly in a few days time is what Amy is referring to.  But this is just from one GFS run, yesterdays was better:

28F9EEF4-BFC7-49DF-95F3-AA47262B06DC.thumb.png.5fc6c251b5003161d1f5b8122094fb5f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 hours ago, bluearmy said:

 

Yes, it’s a displacement but there has always been a v short lived split preceding it. The much vaunted split in mid month looks like being another v temp split high up at 10 hpa and properly split in the mid strat  (50hpa)

Would that mean it would be more likely to enhance blocking patterns being in the mid strat?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The double dip has been there for some time on the models but that takes the flow marginally positive prior to the second dip ...the good news is that the recovery into positive territory post 20th plateaus beyond 10 m/s 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

I'd prefer if the 'messages' from the professionals were more positive than this evening's. Marco Petagna now tweeting in a similar vein to Dr. Amy Butler (above), raising in my mind some questions about the degree that the current SSW will impact surface weather:

In a few weeks as we enter 2nd half winter the effects of the current SSW and La Nina could quite possibly counteract each other.
SSW trying to bring us cold weather Weak/mod La Nina trying to turn it milder wetter windier. Today's EC regimes wanting latter +NAO
This model [GFS] output suggesting impacts of the SSW may struggle to impact our weather significantly...the 10hpa 60N wind reversal to E'ly struggling to get down to our jetstream level... perhaps....

325943231_NAMtweetFcast04Jan21.thumb.jpg.1f0428a47873d8650631a53b0954929c.jpg

Source: Twitter @Petagna

 

Edited by Blessed Weather
Petagna sentenced omitted. Now added.
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

I'd prefer if the 'messages' from the professionals were more positive than this evening's. Marco Petagna now tweeting in a similar vein to Dr. Amy Butler (above), raising in my mind some questions about the degree that the current SSW will impact surface weather:

In a few weeks as we enter 2nd half winter the effects of the current SSW and La Nina could quite possibly counteract each other.
SSW trying to bring us cold weather Weak/mod La Nina trying to turn it milder wetter windier. Today's EC regimes wanting latter +NAO
This model [GFS] output suggesting impacts of the SSW may struggle to impact our weather significantly...the 10hpa 60N wind reversal to E'ly struggling to get down to our jetstream level... perhaps....

325943231_NAMtweetFcast04Jan21.thumb.jpg.1f0428a47873d8650631a53b0954929c.jpg

Source: Twitter @Petagna

 

Got to agree. The last couple of days have begun to raise some questions. Lots of water to flow under the bridge yet, but I hope this is all just model volatility in a phase when we knew there would be model volatility....

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

One can't help but feel this is beginning to look a little ominous..

 

Yes,like the last ssw in Jan 2019.

Anyway as always time will tell......

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Still a number of the GFS and its ensembles showing the 3rd potential warming just as the vortex is trying to get its act together again

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Parallel

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20 of 32 GFS ensembles and the GFS Parallel are all showing this 3rd warming right at the end of their runs so it would seem even if the first big warming and the smaller 2nd warming don't end up with the desired split or vortex destruction it would seem that GFS is still having a 3rd attempt to achieve this

ECM has still underestimate the size of the initial reversal too as on 3rd January they predicted -46 m/s at 1hpa. The actual figure ended up -50 m/s

ECM has 10hpa reversal predicted to start on 5th January which is today but isn't showing up yet as they are a day behind with their charts.

Forecast Date             10hpa reversal start          Initial wind speed     Peak Reversal Speed + Date

26th December          4th January                         -2.00 m/s                    Unknown

27th December          5th January                         -0.10 m/s                    Unknown

28th December          5th January                         -0.80 m/s                    Unknown

29th December          5th January                         -2.80 m/s                   -18.00 m/s (8th January)

30th December          5th January                         -3.60 m/s                   -14.00 m/s (8th + 9th January)

31st December          5th January                         -4.40 m/s                    -13.00 m/s (9th January)

1st January                 4th January                          -0.10 m/s                   -10.00 m/s (8th January)

2nd January                5th January                         -4.50 m/s                    -9.10 m/s (6th January)

3rd January                 5th January                         -4.60 m/s                    -8.50 m/s (6th January)

4th January                 5th January                         -4.00 m/s                    -7.40 m/s (6th January)

In general the ECM has been quite consistent with the start time of the reversal but have in general scaled it back quite a lot with the duration and the peak reversal speed, not a good sign

However ECM is seeing signs of a renewal of the reversal at the 9 to 10 day range

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

So SSW wants to force northern blocking but the moderate El Nina a very positive NAO, result is they cancel each other out and we are left with mid latitude highs. Oh, a bit like the current model output!  

How typical that a fantastic SSW is scuppered by the damn El Nina.

Surely it wasn't as this hard in the 60's.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
1 minute ago, Penrith Snow said:

So SSW wants to force northern blocking but the moderate El Nina a very positive NAO, result is they cancel each other out and we are left with mid latitude highs. Oh, a bit like the current model output!  

How typical that a fantastic SSW is scuppered by the damn El Nina.

Surely it wasn't as this hard in the 60's.

Andy

I'm not sure anyone can answer the question as to which way it will go.. 

I'd be more Inclined to think the SSW will win but who knows. 

I have a theory that lanina produces a warmer second period to winter but it could be the case that this only occurs when we have a strong SPV and TPV.. 

This year we have neither. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
14 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

So SSW wants to force northern blocking but the moderate El Nina a very positive NAO, result is they cancel each other out and we are left with mid latitude highs. Oh, a bit like the current model output!  

How typical that a fantastic SSW is scuppered by the damn El Nina.

Surely it wasn't as this hard in the 60's.

Andy

I personally don't buy that simple analogy as we've had SSWs that have delivered during both La Ninas and El Ninos.

It's never just A+B=C.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Simon Lee confirming the SSW today, with the zonal wind at 10hPa 60N down to -1.1ms (easterly).

293394109_SSWNCEP10hpau05Jan21SLee.thumb.jpg.90ac681c136a3c08709a559bdcae81f7.jpg

Source: Twitter @SimonLeeweather

Matt Hugo quite rightly cautioning against writing off downwelling at this early stage:

Some talk that downwelling of any E'lies may not make it to the trop, that's always poss, especially when the strat doesn't split...but...don't forget we don't have dominant W'lies in the trop anyway that need reversing. The trop continues to be pre-conditioned for blocking IMO.

701113581_SSWUwind70-90N05Jan21MHugo.thumb.jpg.7dd430b0b6f58df5c0f123d30e091c74.jpg2046330500_SSWGPHanom05Jan21MHugo.thumb.jpg.47dd0732f4ca90cd7588447443c17776.jpg

Source: Twitter @MattHugo81

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I personally don't buy that simple analogy as we've had SSWs that have delivered during both La Ninas and El Ninos.

It's never just A+B=C.

Indeed we have, MS... and the same can be said of that other 'rampers' last straw' low/high Solar activity? Just because there are (possibly rather weak) correlations between said events and supposed 'drivers', doesn't necessarily mean there's much if anything in the way of causative/predictive value involved?

As someone quite rightly pointed about above, it's all about probabilities and possibilities, not certainties. And how many severe winters have there been, these last 100 years or so, anyway? So not a huge data-set to work with, by any means...?

Back to the real topic: is it really any surprise that numerical weather-forecasting models are not 'smelling the coffee' (apart from some, albeit erratic, signs of a Polar HP area) just yet, regarding the current SSW, since it's only now properly getting underway??

Only time will tell, but being 'optimistic' or 'pessimistic' seems like a waste of time, to me...? All good things come to he that waits...Or not!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Matt Hugo quite rightly cautioning against writing off downwelling at this early stage:

Some talk that downwelling of any E'lies may not make it to the trop, that's always poss, especially when the strat doesn't split...but...don't forget we don't have dominant W'lies in the trop anyway that need reversing. The trop continues to be pre-conditioned for blocking IMO.

701113581_SSWUwind70-90N05Jan21MHugo.thumb.jpg.7dd430b0b6f58df5c0f123d30e091c74.jpg2046330500_SSWGPHanom05Jan21MHugo.thumb.jpg.47dd0732f4ca90cd7588447443c17776.jpg

Source: Twitter @MattHugo81

 

The downwelling takes place to the 'bottom' for a couple of days. Then it stops. And another round of downwelling.  Which might be even better.

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Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

Please notice this is at 60N! For the area of the first impact you have in my opinion look further to the north. So for honesty and reflection. The charts I posted first, were for 60N. And now I learn this is quite common for a SSW.

Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
12 hours ago, sundog said:

Yes,like the last ssw in Jan 2019.

Anyway as always time will tell......

Think it’s a bit early to say that since reversal (SSW) has only happened today. ECM charts are confusing Initially they look coulpley but then westerlies in trop while fairly weak strengthen, seems counter intuitive to what you would expect. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Further signs of a 3rd warming showing up at the end of the GFS runs. This time the 06z runs

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21 of the 32 members showing either a warming underway or signs one is about to appear just out of range. With so many of the members showing this then there's a high chance this may verify

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

I'm confused here. 

Alex Deakin mentioned in the Met Office 10 day trend broadcast last Wednesday about a possible SSW which could have an impact " but in a number of weeks time"

That says to me, the Met Office  don't expect see any possible impact until late January into February at the earliest

So why are some people thinking that we should be seeing the models reacting to this almost straight away?

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

I'm confused here. 

Alex Deakin mentioned in the Met Office 10 day trend broadcast last Wednesday about a possible SSW which could have an impact " but in a number of weeks time"

That says to me, the Met Office  don't expect see any possible impact until late January into February at the earliest

So why are some people thinking that we should be seeing the models reacting to this almost straight away?

He mentions the normal response time, as mention in literature.  I think it can matter what your definition is of impact. Is it e.g. NAO? Or something else

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
56 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I'm confused here. 

Alex Deakin mentioned in the Met Office 10 day trend broadcast last Wednesday about a possible SSW which could have an impact " but in a number of weeks time"

That says to me, the Met Office  don't expect see any possible impact until late January into February at the earliest

So why are some people thinking that we should be seeing the models reacting to this almost straight away?

Yes as I understand from reading stuff the downwelling effect on the trop pv can take anything between 2 to 6 weeks. 

Let's hope with an already weakened tpv this Winter we see a quick response. 

 

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  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
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