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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

SqueakheartLW

By SqueakheartLW
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Posted by Paul,

I've split posts from late September onwards into this thread, to make a fresh one for this year.   
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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

It is the gefs though and is fraught with danger,seen this happen many times and then drop it

we need the ECM showing this but only goes out to day ten.

Yeah I completely agree with you but steady as she goes.. I really believe wave breaking is being under modeled still due to the conflicting Enso state. 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
6 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

It is the gefs though and is fraught with danger,seen this happen many times and then drop it

we need the ECM showing this but only goes out to day ten.

Tonight’s ec op  (perhaps not surprising given the trop split) shows the strat vortex stretching day 10 in a similar way to the gfs 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Tonight’s ec op  (perhaps not surprising given the trop split) shows the strat vortex stretching day 10 in a similar way to the gfs 

The million dollar question is will it snap back quickly !

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
7 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

It is the gefs though and is fraught with danger,seen this happen many times and then drop it

we need the ECM showing this but only goes out to day ten.

Bear in mind though it is the new FV3 GEFS this year...and last year there was a massive difference between the GFS FV3 op and the old GEFS re strat forecasts, it might be much better this year, proof of the pudding etc.  

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Bear in mind though it is the new FV3 GEFS this year...and last year there was a massive difference between the GFS FV3 op and the old GEFS re strat forecasts, it might be much better this year, proof of the pudding etc.  

Ah,thanks,i forgot about that

Let's hope that that pudding will rise to the occasion

Edited by Allseasons-si
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jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted

That is quite a good looking chart.Nearly a split and very elongated looking centre of vortex. warming not just at surf zone and even at the end of the run the vortex looks vulnreable

anim_age9.gif

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
16 minutes ago, jules216 said:

That is quite a good looking chart.Nearly a split and very elongated looking centre of vortex. warming not just at surf zone and even at the end of the run the vortex looks vulnreable

anim_age9.gif

Interesting isn't it? 

What's your prediction for the ECM zonal chart later, this is Thursday's, higher or lower ♠️? 

 

20201207083341-0a2aa664b214df80dda0e8917bd0005d1445312c.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

image.thumb.png.b25d831f8a7c0da38de916c0e29488ac.png

Further major weakening of the PV likely as we end 2020, Cold chances certainly on the increase!

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jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Griff said:

Interesting isn't it? 

What's your prediction for the ECM zonal chart later, this is Thursday's, higher or lower ♠️? 

 

20201207083341-0a2aa664b214df80dda0e8917bd0005d1445312c.png

Things are looking better then last year. The process of possible weakening and final punch to split could actually already be trough a tropospheric cold pattern in Europe. MJO forcing around phase 6 in latter parts of December warrants a wave 2 configuration closer as we head to January so it can be the wave 1/2 punch that will split the vortex. I never regarded myself as a stratospheric expert re. how would the SSW effect us so need likes of @chionomaniac to express some of his visionary thoughts 

Capture.PNG

ecmwfzm_ha1_f240.png

ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.png

gfs_t50_nh_f384.png

mjo_rmm.daily.20201205.png

Edited by jules216
spell
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Clearly the mean is less reduced but a few more members reversing 

And truth be told there is a lot of scatter, but presumably not without interest for this time of year and the pattern seems fairly consistent.

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted

Nothing very organised about zonal trop winds on today's forecast. Something is definitely brewing....

image.thumb.png.4cb045136ed51c737da82b221f7e7a2a.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

 

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted
6 hours ago, DavidS said:

The theme is continuing with forecast zonal winds. Even the bias corrected CFS is showing full on reversal options.

B4908D03-D841-4F79-A1C7-29FECA5AFB9E.png

4EB99DA8-319E-4D59-8CB4-4314A39A7BA4.png

These are starting to look quite striking....and Simon Lee has let slip today that Glosea is saying the same (hidden from us mere mortals!). Fingers crossed that any global impacts dont leave us on the mild side of developments. Some will cash in, others will just gnash....

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Snow lover 2020 Explorer

Snow lover 2020

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Catacol said:

These are starting to look quite striking....and Simon Lee has let slip today that Glosea is saying the same (hidden from us mere mortals!). Fingers crossed that any global impacts dont leave us on the mild side of developments. Some will cash in, others will just gnash....

Global impacts like what? 

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
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Posted

Really interesting article by Samuel Hayes (aka @BornFromTheVoid) about Arctic Amplification and how it impacts winter weather (including linking into the stratosphere). 

snow-uk.jpeg

favicon.ico Arctic Amplification and Winter Weather - What's the Connection?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV
Samuel Hayes explores how Arctic Amplification impacts the UK's winter weather, and how it links into the stratosphere, sea ice, snow cover and more.

 

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted
48 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Global impacts like what? 

Some regions probably go cold, others probably go warm. The release of cold air from the arctic when a SSW occurs is not guaranteed to provide cold to all parts of the globe. 

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted

Jinkies - take a look at the QBO profile put out here by Amy Butler just now on Twitter. Anyone care to take a punt on what this profile will do to our winter synpotics??????

image.thumb.png.a5fa843ae2abf2820cc1f23fbb527b08.png

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
21 hours ago, Paul said:

Really interesting article by Samuel Hayes (aka @BornFromTheVoid) about Arctic Amplification and how it impacts winter weather (including linking into the stratosphere). 

snow-uk.jpeg

favicon.ico Arctic Amplification and Winter Weather - What's the Connection?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV
Samuel Hayes explores how Arctic Amplification impacts the UK's winter weather, and how it links into the stratosphere, sea ice, snow cover and more.

 

Ahhhh.... i think that answers my question on the mod thread.... what is driving the ural block... i remember siberia recording some record high temps this summer, so warmer seas (barants, kara) = warmer thicker air which strengthens incoming jet driven ridges, into siberian/ural blocking highs...

very interesting article... boy isnt the atmosphere complicated!

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
3 hours ago, Catacol said:

Jinkies - take a look at the QBO profile put out here by Amy Butler just now on Twitter. Anyone care to take a punt on what this profile will do to our winter synpotics??????

image.thumb.png.a5fa843ae2abf2820cc1f23fbb527b08.png

I thought QBO effects were slow burners and anythings happening now unlikely to impact on this Winter?

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