Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

[SMU]

Evening All,

 

Firstly the cobra run from the CFS has been topped by the..... CFS now progging a -38 M/S zonal wind which would shatter all the records

 

On a more realistic note - The ECM zonal outlook has taken an unexpected drop today from the last run showing a significant dip now mid November, a drop of 10M/S from run to run > coukd be natural variability but could also be something a little more significant-

 

For reference we would want a more significant drop to sub 15 for it to be classed as something substantial > at least its a move away from 2019....

 

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All,

 

Firstly the cobra run from the CFS has been topped by the..... CFS now progging a -38 M/S zonal wind which would shatter all the records

Pity about the rest of the runs!  Not that it really matters at this range.

[Catacol]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All,

 

Firstly the cobra run from the CFS has been topped by the..... CFS now progging a -38 M/S zonal wind which would shatter all the records

 

On a more realistic note - The ECM zonal outlook has taken an unexpected drop today from the last run showing a significant dip now mid November, a drop of 10M/S from run to run > coukd be natural variability but could also be something a little more significant-

 

For reference we would want a more significant drop to sub 15 for it to be classed as something substantial > at least its a move away from 2019....

 

 

Impact of wave 2 tropospheric forcing? More such forcing may emerge mid month too - so the projected recovery beyond 14 days may also be held back. Good news. Once the mid Atlantic ridge returns towards the end of the month the vortex may possibly have been held off enough to allow northern blocking to take hold rather than mid Atlantic topplers.

Right on cue....

[Premiere Neige]

AO forecast to go negative mid month....

[northwestsnow]

Scandy -Greenland block mid November...

I'm going all in !!!

[Premiere Neige]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Scandy -Greenland block mid November...

I'm going all in !!!

Hopefully one that hangs around for a couple of months

[blizzard81]

23 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Impact of wave 2 tropospheric forcing? More such forcing may emerge mid month too - so the projected recovery beyond 14 days may also be held back. Good news. Once the mid Atlantic ridge returns towards the end of the month the vortex may possibly have been held off enough to allow northern blocking to take hold rather than mid Atlantic topplers.

Right on cue....

Is that chart from the Ec46? 

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Is that chart from the Ec46? 

Looks that way although I'm not entirely sure which week it represents...

At a stab week 3...

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks that way although I'm not entirely sure which week it represents...

At a stab week 3...

I was thinking along the same lines. 

[Catacol]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks that way although I'm not entirely sure which week it represents...

At a stab week 3...

Sorry - image has somehow lost its integrity. It is week beginning 30 November

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Sorry - image has somehow lost its integrity. It is week beginning 30 November

Beginning of December would be chilly then...

Would be nice to see a colder mainland Europe for early Dec for a change...

[SMU]

EPS 46 has no Greenland blocking now all the way throughout the run.

[northwestsnow]

Cold dry November please weather Gods....

Fishing is about the only enjoyment left in these horrible times....

Plus the rain here recently has been horrendous...

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

EPS 46 has no Greenland blocking now all the way throughout the run.

Looks a Scuero Steve ...

Might produce some seasonal weather for the UK.

[SLEETY]

And when ec46 does show blocking over Greenland and Iceland it never materialises anyway, remember last winter and the winter before for example

[blizzard81]

7 hours ago, SLEETY said:

And when ec46 does show blocking over Greenland and Iceland it never materialises anyway, remember last winter and the winter before for example

This is something I remember too. 

[Paul_1978]

12 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

AO forecast to go negative mid month....

Does anyone know (I've seen it on here before but can't remember the answer) - does the AO forecast determine the model output, or does the model output determine the AO forecast?

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Does anyone know (I've seen it on here before but can't remember the answer) - does the AO forecast determine the model output, or does the model output determine the AO forecast?

The latter - and also the NAO - for example - this chart is a fairly hefty  -NAO - the graph would be minus,  - if the chart was zonal the the corresponding run's NAO graph would be above 0. Its interlinked.

 

[jules216]

Regardless of the Fantasy GFS 0Z output the mean anomalies up to day 10 point to Sceuro high anomaly with possible tendency later to become a Sceuro/Ural high or clean Scandi high with heights slightly dropping down south. What I would like to point out is the exact opposite outcome that looks likely on most GEFS or EPS members now to  what EC seasonal was showing last month for November.

It had a -NAO/Atlantic ridge and a sort of a Sceuro low anomaly. The exact opposite seems now likely with limpet mid Atlantic low and Sceuro high. To me this is a monumental disaster of a forecast with only 1 month lead time. 

You can see now on the latest regime chart from EC weeklies that -NAO has just  about vanished. To me it shows once again a false signal of -NAO with long lead time. 

[Paul_1978]

34 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The latter - and also the NAO - for example - this chart is a fairly hefty  -NAO - the graph would be minus,  - if the chart was zonal the the corresponding run's NAO graph would be above 0. Its interlinked.

 

Cheers mate, thought as much. So if we see a "negative AO forecast", it shouldn't be anything we don't already know from looking at the model output? I am sure there is a better way of using the AO forecast that me as a mere amateur doesn't get 

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Cheers mate, thought as much. So if we see a "negative AO forecast", it shouldn't be anything we don't already know from looking at the model output? I am sure there is a better way of using the AO forecast that me as a mere amateur doesn't get 

Always look at the charts, will give you a much better indication of whether the -AO or -NAO is likely to benefit us.

[SqueakheartLW]

Good news for EQBO fans. NASA site has updated the phase plot

Now that looks more promising if you want the EQBO to try and make a comeback

The bad news is the latest QBO figure for October 2020 which has strengthened the WQBO further

                   JAN          FEB          MAR         APR         MAY         JUN          JUL            AUG          SEP            OCT

2020          -2.51       -3.20        -4.36        -5.03        -4.86        -2.78        +0.34        +4.78        +7.95        +10.80

Up to double figures and very much now in strong WQBO territory now. Anything at +10 or more on my scale is a strong WQBO. Even worse news for winter now

At least the stratospheric zonal wind forecast clearly shows the EQBO starting to make its descent in the next 10 days

Latest chart                                                10 days forecast

[mb018538]

No real changes forecast through November at the moment.

Much stronger than average. We need a leg up somewhere, November and December were meant to be the better months before Nina put the kibosh on the second half of winter....and November is in danger of just dissolving into another mild month.

[Don]

36 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Good news for EQBO fans. NASA site has updated the phase plot

Now that looks more promising if you want the EQBO to try and make a comeback

The bad news is the latest QBO figure for October 2020 which has strengthened the WQBO further

                   JAN          FEB          MAR         APR         MAY         JUN          JUL            AUG          SEP            OCT

2020          -2.51       -3.20        -4.36        -5.03        -4.86        -2.78        +0.34        +4.78        +7.95        +10.80

Up to double figures and very much now in strong WQBO territory now. Anything at +10 or more on my scale is a strong WQBO. Even worse news for winter now

At least the stratospheric zonal wind forecast clearly shows the EQBO starting to make its descent in the next 10 days

Latest chart                                                10 days forecast

Coupled with a moderate to strong central based Nina, the prospects for the coming winter are not looking too clever now if you want it cold?  We just can't seem to get the break we need!

Edited November 4, 2020 by Don

[LRD]

19 minutes ago, Don said:

Coupled with a moderate to strong central based Nina, the prospects for the coming winter are not looking too clever now if you want it cold?  We just can't seem to get the break we need!

Don't get me wrong, the science is important and should always be pursued and improved so our understanding improves. However, the thing is there is ALWAYS something that results in us not getting a cold winter lately (since 2013-14 anyway and most years from 1987/88-2007/08).

WQBO too strong; ENSO is either too warm or cold or central or east or west; IOD is too, er, whatever that does, MoJO, Brewers Droop Circulation, a warm Pacific Ocean around Alaska, me wearing tight underwear, SSTs. The list is endless

Whatever it is there is always something to scupper a cold winter season for the UK and parts of Europe due to too much stratospheric/tropospheric activity at the North Pole. Makes you think there might be a greater, more broad thing happening to our climate. I wonder what that could be... 

Edited November 4, 2020 by LRD