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Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith
    8 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

    Yeah will be a real shame if we are on the wrong side of marginal but it’s usually -10c uppers needed here when it’s an easterly but we can hope ! Especially as looks like potential for lots of showers / streamers next few days ..

    Aye no complaints JS, things have gone right for us the last few days and its been enjoyable. Plenty of interest in the next 10 days and beyond, maybe we get lucky again !

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    Good to see some areas getting a bit of a top up today - while this was sort of on the radar (to pardon the pun, especially given the amount of false echoes I saw nearby to start with) it wasn't reall

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    6 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    The exact location of the showers not worth taking as 100%, likely to change from run to run but latest wrf nmm 2km (likely that front on the fax chart) as winds start to turn to the east brings snow showers in from early morning image.thumb.gif.fdb40c932b54405cc6bad00dd2228760.gif 

    list

    temperatures will be near freezing like recent days

    well in the sub 528 dam air 

    850 hpa around -6 getting colder from time to time 

    Again the only thing that will likely alter the precip now and again will be the dewpoints which at worst look to be +3 in the North Sea but it’s whether those will come on land the majority of the time 🤷‍♂️ And any heavier precip will help bring the dewpoint down so I don’t think it will be a huge issue.

    You seem confident using the term Snow showers?? 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    3 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    You seem confident using the term Snow showers?? 😁

    Yeah fingers crossed especially if the showers are heavy enough that should eliminate any marginality, radar and dewpoint watching will be best 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
    3 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    You seem confident using the term Snow showers?? 😁

    I would say dewpoints are likely to be too high for much of the eastern parts of the country tomorrow. Not so on Monday, but then there's an absence of ppn... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
    22 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

    Yeah will be a real shame if we are on the wrong side of marginal but it’s usually -10c uppers needed here when it’s an easterly but we can hope ! Especially as looks like potential for lots of showers / streamers next few days ..

    I stayed along Pilrig St for many years and my observation of the necessary deep cold for easterlies to produce the goods was an 850hpa temp of -8°C or below. Bit more leaway maybe! 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m
    21 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    The exact location of the showers not worth taking as 100%, likely to change from run to run but latest wrf nmm 2km (likely that front on the fax chart) as winds start to turn to the east brings snow showers in from early morning image.thumb.gif.fdb40c932b54405cc6bad00dd2228760.gif 

    list

    temperatures will be near freezing like recent days

    well in the sub 528 dam air 

    850 hpa around -6 getting colder from time to time 

    Again the only thing that will likely alter the precip now and again will be the dewpoints which at worst look to be +3 in the North Sea but it’s whether those will come on land the majority of the time 🤷‍♂️ And any heavier precip will help bring the dewpoint down so I don’t think it will be a huge issue.

    I can guarantee it rains in my location..😥😥😥

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

    Thanks @CatchMyDrift I remember living in Toronto where 540 dam was a reasonable indicator of snow. Here I’m looking for sub 520 on the Fife coast (depending on the set up of course). The joys of the maritime climate. 😄

    Anyway as others have said not cold enough for snow on the immediate east coast tomorrow I suspect. A ‘wintry mix’ at best I think! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
    30 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

    Good analysis! I am not sure dew points will be an issue, but any "warm" air at 925 to 850 will be crucial to surface precipitation type. One good thing is that the trend has been colder with these streamers off the North Sea over the past 5-7 days. I suspect (although I can't verify) that SST's and accompanying North Sea air is trending colder than average right now. That region has been in a pretty dominant northeast/east flow for a good 7 days now, which is probably starting to impact the background atmosphere state.

    Will probably need to watch the orientation of the that developing surface trough in the wee hours of Sunday morning. Will make a big difference in how the orientation of the winds off the water. 

     

    Current sst anomalies. Still a bit on the warm side in the North Sea as of 30th December.

     

    E9D5207F-FB5A-429A-A5F3-E02C9B50AD8F.png

    9CFE38E9-BE78-4951-A30C-269054D1A1D0.png

    Edited by Norrance
    Added correct map.
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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
    5 minutes ago, Norrance said:

    Current sst anomalies. Still a bit on the warm side in the North Sea.

    E9D5207F-FB5A-429A-A5F3-E02C9B50AD8F.png

    And even more so to the north!  Hmm, how's the sea ice doing? Oh right....

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    Posted
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, and lots of it
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)
    37 minutes ago, Norrance said:

    Current sst anomalies. Still a bit on the warm side in the North Sea as of 30th December.

     

    E9D5207F-FB5A-429A-A5F3-E02C9B50AD8F.png

    9CFE38E9-BE78-4951-A30C-269054D1A1D0.png

    They are still warmer than average for sure. But trending cooler it seems. The anomaly was warmer in the last few weeks of December. In any case, it's actually probably better to have a slightly warmer North Sea. Adds more moisture to the low levels!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dennyloanhead. (49m ASL)
  • Location: Dennyloanhead. (49m ASL)
    18 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

    Its snawing its snawing live on the telly box thing West brom has snaw and i can see it...🤪🤪🤪🤪😂😂😂😂

    I was just about to post Brum has snaw and I have frost. 🤣🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    @Cheggers coming down at a fair old speed too... epic stuff who needs a lamppost 😂😂

    I cant even get a frost currently 😪 

    Edited by Mair Snaw
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