Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
Just now, JamesM said:

It’s a Wiking Mini 2 which is one of these modern eco design defra approved ones. In a modern estate and we are one of only two who have one so need to keep smoke to a minimum. Any soot inside clears once you get a good amount of heat in it and with the air wash system, very little tar ever appears on the glass, This is the 3rd winter with it. Burn kiln dried mixed hardwood from a local supplier mixed in with stuff I have accumulated myself that’s at least 2 years seasoned. 

Ours is ok, we burn kilned wood and eco logs but still tars  up when baffles in and logs smouldering.  Will inwestigate the wiking.  Cheers

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

I start work tomorrow at 8am, if the Met office forecast is correct then I may struggle getting to East Kilbride 

32B99597-555B-4E93-8B3B-24BDD669C3A7.thumb.jpeg.b49c6402bcea220b08c888467234d26a.jpeg

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Falkirk 111m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny in summer, cold in winter.
  • Location: South Falkirk 111m asl

Well I've just trawled several weather forecast sites and the best I can find for Falkirk is met office offering sleet. The puppy has settled in and been out for his first week of walks (usually accompanied by our two cats to my embarrassment). Our burner needs a good clean. 

DSC_2070.JPG

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

This Afternoon runs are Drunk for tomorrow evening and night across Scotland isn't it. UKV and ICON has one solution and the other models have another solution. 
UKV/ICON combined: This would Bring the greatest Risk in Fife , Perth and Kinross, Stirling and the greater Glasgow area and points east of there as well as to the north across the Loch Lomond areas. ( 1-3cm quite widely ) 5-10cm over higher ground above 200m
GFS/WRF: These models suggests the greatest snow risk will be across the west Highlands and areas to the west and NW of Glasgow leaving everywhere snow free essentially. 
HARMONIE/Aperge: These models are a little different to each other, however both have lighter snowfalls and its a more a middle ground scenario some would say. HARMONIE has some light snow setting up between Perth and points west but The heaviest precipitation is across the Highland region and this would probably limit accumulations to lower elevations. However though It does have heavier snowfall across Greater Glasgow which could allow some settling above 100m or so. APERGE is similar to the more west Solution but it does suggest a few light flurries between Stirling and points west towards the band to the west of Glasgow. 
> It will most likely be radar watching unless if there is an agreement overnight or tomorrow morning with this band of wintry precipitation. 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, and lots of it
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)

Good analysis @LomondSnowstorm! As you say, it's all about the track and position of the storm center. I think snow for northern and western Scotland is a sure thing. But whether this becomes a more wide spread snow event for Scotland is still up for debate. Here on the eastern end of the central belt, my fingers are crossed, but I am not so sure.

Instability will play a big role, but how much instability can we expect given the significant surface temperature drops? Still, I am excited at the possibilities! 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
8 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Good analysis @LomondSnowstorm! As you say, it's all about the track and position of the storm center. I think snow for northern and western Scotland is a sure thing. But whether this becomes a more wide spread snow event for Scotland is still up for debate. Here on the eastern end of the central belt, my fingers are crossed, but I am not so sure.

Instability will play a big role, but how much instability can we expect given the significant surface temperature drops? Still, I am excited at the possibilities! 

Euro 4 is rolling out now. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
20 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

This Afternoon runs are Drunk for tomorrow evening and night across Scotland isn't it. UKV and ICON has one solution and the other models have another solution. 
UKV/ICON combined: This would Bring the greatest Risk in Fife , Perth and Kinross, Stirling and the greater Glasgow area and points east of there as well as to the north across the Loch Lomond areas. ( 1-3cm quite widely ) 5-10cm over higher ground above 200m
GFS/WRF: These models suggests the greatest snow risk will be across the west Highlands and areas to the west and NW of Glasgow leaving everywhere snow free essentially. 
HARMONIE/Aperge: These models are a little different to each other, however both have lighter snowfalls and its a more a middle ground scenario some would say. HARMONIE has some light snow setting up between Perth and points west but The heaviest precipitation is across the Highland region and this would probably limit accumulations to lower elevations. However though It does have heavier snowfall across Greater Glasgow which could allow some settling above 100m or so. APERGE is similar to the more west Solution but it does suggest a few light flurries between Stirling and points west towards the band to the west of Glasgow. 
> It will most likely be radar watching unless if there is an agreement overnight or tomorrow morning with this band of wintry precipitation. 

The latest Euro 4 gives everyone SE of Braemar some sort of snow in the evening , Best snow is Perth southwards generally and a good 1-3cm for much of the central belt. So the met models and icon are more east and the other models are more West, we now await ECMWF and the 15z UKV later. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, and lots of it
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)

The trend is a friend to snow lovers. 

Latest EWMWF (left) versus previous run. Significant displacement of the low pressure to the east. A good set up for snow!

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-26 at 6.04.01 PM.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.

The Mets latest 6 day forecast for this area is encouraging. Between now and Friday, real feel temperatures will struggle to get above 0C.  Sunday and Monday look to be the coldest days with a few sleet or snow showers. 

What's not to like...

Edited by Sceptical
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
42 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Good analysis @LomondSnowstorm! As you say, it's all about the track and position of the storm center. I think snow for northern and western Scotland is a sure thing. But whether this becomes a more wide spread snow event for Scotland is still up for debate. Here on the eastern end of the central belt, my fingers are crossed, but I am not so sure.

Instability will play a big role, but how much instability can we expect given the significant surface temperature drops? Still, I am excited at the possibilities! 

That's a good point! Especially with the relatively high upper air temperatures compared to surface. I think the low surface pressure helps significantly though in the sense that you've got 50hPa less height than normal from the surface to the upper layers. In particular this will mean the convection over the sea should be very impressive given such a high lapse rate. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tarves, Aberdeenshire, 86m asl
  • Location: Tarves, Aberdeenshire, 86m asl

Fingers crossed but my gut feeling is we won't see anything in the NE this time.   LS analysis has got me slightly hopeful though  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Westhill, Aberdeenshire 150m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow winter, hot summer
  • Location: Westhill, Aberdeenshire 150m

Any chance of showers here in the next couple of days? I hope it is not going to be another of those dry westerlies which have become so common in recent years.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
9 minutes ago, AFC Snow said:

Any chance of showers here in the next couple of days? I hope it is not going to be another of those dry westerlies which have become so common in recent years.

Aberdeen might well see some snow tomorrow. Check out the Mets forecast.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

It looks like the next few days will be rather lively with the potential for some decent snowfalls in places. Anything can happen in this set up and as ever with snow events it’s a case of nowcasting and radar watching. I’m personally expecting up to an inch of wet snow though I’m hoping for more than a couple of inches - some places in the north and west will probably see several inches.

 

Any areas which see a decent covering could have snow on the ground for up to a week at least. In 2009/10 and Nov/Dec 2010 there were only a couple of snowfalls of more than a couple of inches and sometimes that’s all you need during a sustained cold spell. At face value the charts are not as impressive as 2010 in terms of depth and duration of cold but that doesn’t mean you can’t have a memorable cold spell. Given the set up and any snow cover there’s the potential for some very low temperatures, snowfalls can pop up at short notice and there’s always the chance that the cold increases in intensity and duration. Nevertheless the coming period is the probably the most promising for cold and snow in late Decenber/early January in over a decade and with the likelihood of a SSW January should have a lot on offer for cold and snow - I’d say there’s a very good chance January will be colder than average, possibly substantially so.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

Here it comes - SNAW and cold air. Rain front clearing to the south quickly. 

Enlarge pic for fine detail view. All that snaw heading our way. 

ca.jpg

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Perth - Usually Snow Deprived!
  • Location: Perth - Usually Snow Deprived!

Yep, good luck everyone!  I'm starting to get just a little bit excited now :) 

Even here I'd hope to see something, even if it's only an inch or so... fingers crossed for more than that though, but after the last couple of winters I shouldn't be greedy!

Tim

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
3 hours ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

The latest Euro 4 gives everyone SE of Braemar some sort of snow in the evening , Best snow is Perth southwards generally and a good 1-3cm for much of the central belt. So the met models and icon are more east and the other models are more West, we now await ECMWF and the 15z UKV later. 

Did someone say Perth South of Perth probably right

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...