Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards

[Mair Snaw]

Wow its all Champagne and cigars in the mad house today, kind of get the feeling its gonna be sprite and roll ups by the time the weekend is out.. 

I would love to see these charts coming in to the t72 range but just cant believe it will happen.

[Sceptical]

1 hour ago, Mair Snaw said:

Wow its all Champagne and cigars in the mad house today, kind of get the feeling its gonna be sprite and roll ups by the time the weekend is out.. 

I would love to see these charts coming in to the t72 range but just cant believe it will happen.

"Sprite and roll ups"

That cracked me up!

[Puffy MacCloud]

Mostly damp this morning except when it's wet.

Temperature 11.9deg.C up from 7.8deg.C min at 06:39, humidity 91%, wind 5 to 17mph southerly, pressure 993.9hPa dropping like a stone, there's been 1.2mm of rain today and 4.6mm in the last 24 hours and cloud cover is 8/8.

[Sceptical]

As it stands, a white Christmas is on the cards for parts of Scotland.

Braemar, Strathdon, Aviemore all have snow symbols for Christmas day. Hopefully more locations are earmarked for snow as we push into next week.

 

Source: Met Office.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Sceptical

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Happened to have a look at the charts for tomorrow and they have peaked my attention, squally thundery showers look likely and also funnel clouds / possible tornadic activity   ^more than enough CAPE  helicity and shear there too   Maybe worth keeping a check on the radar through tomorrow ️ 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

More optimistic posts, this time about Xmas eve, but on every forecast I’ve seen we get a day or two at 4c max then back to average winter fare of about 6c - hardly bitterly cold. 

[Penicuikblizzard]

The model thread is absolutely buzzing with the eye candy charts ATM hopefully it’s not a toys out the pram scenario tomorrow

What are your thoughts on todays 12z charts going forward ?

[Klippie]

I just had a look on the mad thread...I've heard they've booked Space X to launch all the toy's oot the pram's...a mass ejection event will take place if this doesn't come off.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Klippie

[101_North]

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Happened to have a look at the charts for tomorrow and they have peaked my attention, squally thundery showers look likely and also funnel clouds / possible tornadic activity   ^more than enough CAPE  helicity and shear there too   Maybe worth keeping a check on the radar through tomorrow ️ 

Noisy rain potential. Oh goodie 

[Hawesy]

Evening all,

Never mind cold, some very mild temperatures around today with Edinburgh topping out at 14c. Currently 11c here in Pittenweem. 

Consistent signal for colder weather developing next week. I may even get a second air frost if things pan out!  [Only 4 air frosts at Leuchars so far this autumn and winter, average would be nearer 16]

Edited December 18, 2020 by Hawesy

[Sceptical]

John Holmes just posted his initial thoughts on the potential cold spell next week.  "Generally cold and dry"

Pretty much in line with the Mets thoughts a few days ago. Although they did mention "wintry showers for the North"

Hopefully it doesn't go tits up.

[NorthernRab]

There's definitely going to be a F5 TOORP event at some point soon. Better nail down anything valuable while you can. 

[Norrance]

Reporting Scotland mentioned cold Northerlies next week but temperatures modified on or/ by Christmas Day. Mmmm?
Def not cold today though with a max of 11.6C. Mostly cloudy but only the odd spit and spot of rain..

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Comes back on and looks at the ecm 240 chart similar to earlier gfs runs. Anything of that variety and North Sea snow machine = 

Our thundersnow with only - 2/-4 850s, the massive Japan sea effect snow and add the us snowstorm too 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Sceptical]

36 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Reporting Scotland mentioned cold Northerlies next week but temperatures modified on or/ by Christmas Day. Mmmm?
Def not cold today though with a max of 11.6C. Mostly cloudy but only the odd spit and spot of rain..

I wonder if by modified they perhaps meant windchill temperatures? From Wednesday next week real feel temperatures definitely head lower as the winds swing around to a more NW or N direction.

Definitely a chance of something seasonal next week.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Sceptical

[Mr Frost]

On 04/12/2020 at 07:07, Mr Frost said:

I shall see you all again when the next low ground chase appears in the models - been a great last few days in here! 

All the best to you all!

It has been a wee while! 

Hope you are all well/healthy.

13C here today! Felt like early Spring outside. 

Pretty boring/mundane weather for the last two weeks - highlight was a decent sunrise on 09/12. 

Only had a chance to browse the forum for about ten mins tonight but have been keeping an eye on the models/charts daily. 

Sticking with a semi reliable timeframe out to day five/120 hours...lovely seasonal weather build up to Christmas! 

Our first low ground snowfall risk appears to be roughly Wednesday morning onwards - Tuesday snow parameters more conductive for high ground only.

Latest UKMO day five: 23/12

 

Latest UKV snapshots for day five: 23/12

Precipitation type & Sea level pressure:

 

850HPA temp 

Dewpoint temperature (C)

 

Wet bulb freezing height (m)

 

Thickness (dam)

 

NW/N best placed on the above charts for some snowfall to low levels at those timeframes. 

Just for fun the lying snow depth chart (mm) for the latest run. 

 

It’s not too shabby at all - chilly days, risk of snowfall for some and freezing/frosty nights for most through 23rd to 25th at the very least! (Current output) 

Hopefully a more prolonged cold spell/snowfall risk throughout Scotland in the coming weeks. 

I won’t be back on here until early January so I wish you all a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year when it arrives - thank you all for another year of great weather pictures, reports, banter and chat! 

Cheers everyone! 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Mr Frost

[NorthernRab]

51 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Reporting Scotland mentioned cold Northerlies next week but temperatures modified on or/ by Christmas Day. Mmmm?
Def not cold today though with a max of 11.6C. Mostly cloudy but only the odd spit and spot of rain..

Sounds about right, 23rd and 24th look better for snow currently, then perhaps less cold on Christmas before it becomes colder on Christmas night and into Boxing Day. 

 

Still a week out though so lots could change, particularly with how 850 uppers align. 

[lorenzo]

I don't see any toys needing to be thrown out of any prams for maybe some time..

[NorthernRab]

10 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

I don't see any toys needing to be thrown out of any prams for maybe some time..

Neither do I. Excellent output, best we've had for a long time, particularly for Scotland. 

A TOORP will still happen though. Far too much stock put in individual runs and huge swings in emotions as a result. 

Play silly games, win silly prizes. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by NorthernRab

[lorenzo]

Oh we will still get the BS around random energy or shortwaves blah blah or that run has nudged this 42.1km east /west etc.

That's par for the course for the GFS being available 4 times a day.

Simply put, if you don't look at tonight's ECM day 10 chart in awe and wonder and enjoy the evolution - then why are you actually here looking at charts?

Hope the UKMO verifies for Xmas Eve - like that for a lovely seasonal feel leading into Xmas Day.

[Hairy Celt]

Well that was mild today. And excessively wet for the duration of my constitutional!  Tested some fancy waterproofs, some of which passed, some failed.

So... next week brings quoi, exactement?

[NorthernRab]

9 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Oh we will still get the BS around random energy or shortwaves blah blah or that run has nudged this 42.1km east /west etc.

That's par for the course for the GFS being available 4 times a day.

Simply put, if you don't look at tonight's ECM day 10 chart in awe and wonder and enjoy the evolution - then why are you actually here looking at charts?

Hope the UKMO verifies for Xmas Eve - like that for a lovely seasonal feel leading into Xmas Day.

If it turns out exactly like that then it'll be me and NorthernStrath in the boose as we'll be basking in sunshine while those of you in the south and east will be buried! 

Edited December 18, 2020 by NorthernRab

[Quinach]

Aberdeenshire Permagloom™ once again, though for a change it was the mild summer type.

Max of 13.3c accompanied by a fresh to strong SW wind; rain off and on for most of the afternoon but really of nuisance value only.

[Mair Snaw]

Well its all doom and gloom in the mad house, shortwave drama and the ukmo has spat the dummy out and its wibble wobble time on the gfs and ecm... the Americans dont like it and the champagne is back on ice and the corner shop is running out of Rizzla and Golden Virginia

[Northern Strath]

On 17/12/2020 at 22:35, Quinach said:

Work necessitated a trip to Inverness (Strathnairn to be precise).

Hidden gem of an area, short distance from Inverness but very peaceful and drop dead gorgeous.

This was where I grew up and go back generations so really enjoyed seeing this pop up @Quinach  If you wander around that graveyard you can see stones with abrasions from local clansmen sharpening their swords before battle. Was last there in the summer 

 

Same can be seen in the woods just along the road at Gask with the Clach An Airm (stone of the swords). Plenty history in the Strath, with plenty Druid and Pictish sites, some of the history being very dark, it’s proximity to Culloden meant the retribution in its aftermath was particularly terrible there.

The area is great in winter, gets enough snow to cultivate a life long love of the stuff anyway

We’ve had a similar battering with the rain this last while as other poor sods, some sun around today though and hopeful for this colder change to make it more seasonal