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Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards


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Good to see some areas getting a bit of a top up today - while this was sort of on the radar (to pardon the pun, especially given the amount of false echoes I saw nearby to start with) it wasn't reall

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Evening all,

Decent day here in the East Neuk with a little sun on offer. Max temp was 13.3c but of more note was the overnight minimum of 12.1c! Currently 8.3c with a cooler feel.

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4 hours ago, SW Saltire said:

Can confirm that wind is baltic when you walk out the gym in a t-shirt and shorts! 

Car saying 8c however. I hope we get a taste of winter before too long, the rain is depressing

Never used to bother you!

muscle-snowman.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Nipples too 🤪

Helloooo!

Mind still in the gutter I see.   You know I thought of you when I posted that!

We were all wondering why SW Saltire hadn't turned up on here for days.   Especially as he set off back to Uni. in a raging blizzard.   We did find him a few days later though! 😁

 

 

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Just now, Mr Frost said:

Do you have any thoughts on this Winter? Just a predicted rating out of ten will do for now. 😄

I just read @Steve Murr pretty much writing off the next forty days for snow. 😃

Long range outlooks/models are not great either.

It can’t be as bad as last year...can it!? 😆

Not any that anyone would enjoy reading Mr Frost...

The vortex is uber cold this year, and there is a severe lack of any kind of Heat Flux transport at 100 hPa to disrupt it. Last year and year before during Novembers we had big wave breaking events that caused heat flux to disrupt the vortex during ( basically winter teases),  and at least give us something to hope for, or chase.

This season sees a really consistent Pacific pattern, which is only progressing minimally i.e. La Nina background, and really slow impacts of the MJO wave. 

Then, we know about the Vortex intensification period, a classic period where the vortex goes off on one and has tendency to return to home ( parked at Greenland where we want blocking to happen), results in a westerly regime and where blocks collapse quickly ( topplers as they are called here).

For Vortex Intensification - think of where you crank up a spinning top, and with each turn it gets faster and faster. You stop and some latent acceleration, then slowly the original force eases off.

Think of the MJO or Heat Flux created by blocking or wave breaks as being things that slow the spinning top down a little. This season it appears to be thus far unimpeded. 

We do have some flux in the Jetstream up coming, however we  really need that perfect wave break to disrupt proceedings. There is nothing I can stick a pin on right now and say - yes this might disrupt that usual canonical intensification period.

This means we are staring down the barrel of a vortex doing it's thing, impinging on tropospheric patterns for a period of time until we get a trigger that will create some disruption, for this you then look at the next MJO transfer across the Pacific and what can it do to reshuffle the deck.

All that being said for now, it is certainly not the same vortex profile as last yr, which was truly exceptional, which gives us some small degree of hope. And, finally, the 'perfect' set ups may be ruled out by this period i.e. the big blocking and 'classic' set ups. Some of our strongest impact events have been from cold AM westerlies over recent yrs.

 

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9 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Helloooo!

Mind still in the gutter I see.   You know I thought of you when I posted that!

We were all wondering why SW Saltire hadn't turned up on here for days.   Especially as he set off back to Uni. in a raging blizzard.   We did find him a few days later though! 😁

 

 

Lol. You turn the place into some sort of page 3 retro show, whaddya expect, culture?

Rain on again, 6.5C.

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55 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

@Ravelin im camping in your garden tonight...😂😂😂

That'll confuse the dog, and not my fault if the only wetness you feel is her licking you incessantly. 

Personally I'm not exactly hopefully of anything beyond a slight sleety mess on the car when I wake up in the morning. What looked like a possible cold snap has predictably ended up as a blink and you'll miss it affair. The excitement of the GFS FI has even gone missing the last few runs too, bummer. 

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7 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

That'll confuse the dog, and not my fault if the only wetness you feel is her licking you incessantly. 

Personally I'm not exactly hopefully of anything beyond a slight sleety mess on the car when I wake up in the morning. What looked like a possible cold snap has predictably ended up as a blink and you'll miss it affair. The excitement of the GFS FI has even gone missing the last few runs too, bummer. 

That's the AGW winter for you.  You can give it all the technopiffle you like but the atmosphere is changing so quickly that long-lasting snowy spells seem really unlikely.

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1 hour ago, Mair Snaw said:

@Ravelin A slight sleety mess! Im sure ive seen that film before😂😂😂😂🙈🙈🙈🙈

It's the modern day sequel to A Day After Tomorrow 

5c93a061daa507002109d245?width=1000&form 3313902+042717.N.DNT_.ICEc1_.jpg

Currently 4.2C, breezy and raining here. 

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8 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

It's the modern day sequel to A Day After Tomorrow 

5c93a061daa507002109d245?width=1000&form 3313902+042717.N.DNT_.ICEc1_.jpg

Currently 4.2C, breezy and raining here. 

ROFLMAO 😆 

5.5C and windy, dry for now.

VW pocket rocket has nice wide Nokian Weatherproofs on now. The Bridgestone Weathercontrols I put on it for the Iceland roadtrip last year managed about 10k miles then were down to the wear limits so I wouldn't recommend them (although the wear rate may have had something to do with a day of high speed, mild weather travel on German autobahns 🤪).  The Yeti is about to get a set of Goodyear Vector 3 cos they came out very well in recent reviews.  All the good winter and all-season tyres seem to have much the same sort of tread design but there's maybe more differences in the compounds used.

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