Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards

[blitzen]

Good morning all. (or is it?!)

Gorgeous morning here with a slight touch of frost.  1.1c/-0.3c.

 

 

[snowy owl]

Wishing everyone a good New Years Day! Strangely no alcohol was consumed before the bells ? ! So one is bright eyed and bushy tailed for a braw New Years Dinner with my parents in our wee bubble . Hope you all have a good day or the paracetamol handy

[A Winter's Tale]

I wish everyone the happiest possible new year - 2021 can only be better than 2020. 

A nice frosty start to the new year with clear skies. The seasonal weather is a welcome change from the perpetual overcast skies which December seems to offer most of the time.  

It looks like the cold weather will persist throughout much of the first half of January - the first time in a decade we’ve seen any period of seasonal weather at this time of year. The next 7 days will probably be mostly cold and dry though some surprises can’t be ruled out regarding snow - most likely in south eastern Scotland. Thereafter it appears we could see things start to shift with a variety of options on offer, mostly cold, including possibly a more potent northerly or easterly whilst we may see a breakdown of sorts around mid-month. The models recently have been all over the place so we won’t know for a while what will be in store in a few weeks time. Hopefully any mild spell will be short-lived or even the current cold spell continues and intensifies after mid-month. 

There’s huge potential for significant winter weather with a northern hemisphere pattern already conducive for cold weather and an SSW on top. As ever delivering significant cold and snow to these shores is always precarious though it’s hard not to be excited about what could be on offer in what appears to be an unprecedented set up. Given the potential, I’d be underwhelmed if we don’t achieve a sub 2C mean for January, a minimum of -15C or lower in the highlands or widespread inland snow cover of more than 2 inches. I don’t think it’s entirely unrealistic to achieve a sub 1C mean, lows of -18C in highlands and -10C in populated areas and widespread snow cover of 10cm + and locally 30cm+. No two notable cold spells are the same in-terms of duration and the depth of cold and snow - we’re certainly looking at a fairly notable cold spell in terms of duration but just how cold and snowy remains to be seen. Once the models are able to grasp the impact of the SSW hopefully we’re looking at a period of memorable winter weather. I certainly think we could see something of the magnitude of 2010 or 1979 - maybe a level above although I think matching 1947 or 1963 is too far fetched but not impossible. Equally we could experience a month more notable for persistent low temperatures rather than snow or we could end up with a frustrating two week cold spell like January 2013 which lacked significant cold and snow. It will be interest to see how the coming weeks pan out.

 

 

 

[101_North]

A beautiful morning and start to 2021 after a pretty horrible damp end to 2020! Temp is currently -1.5c. Although the snowcover took an absolute mauling yesterday afternoon enough has survived to make it look seasonal. Heading up to the Pentlands now for a walk and really looking forward to it.

Happy 2021!

Edited January 1, 2021 by 101_North

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Just looked at the latest fax charts still likely to be a couple of changes on them before we get to Monday (probably more features popping up, troughs) about as perfect an E flow as you can get  ensembles show the feed of showers likely to be cut off by Wednesday then we watch the movement of the high and look north 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Northern Strath]

Happy New Year. After a very quiet Hogmanay where we didn’t touch a drop it’s nice to be fresh on the first day

0c and just had a snow shower, hopefully a good omen that this winter is keen to press on with delivering the goods

 

 

[Klippie]

Happy New Year everyone...it looks like the 1st of January will be a nice crisp sunny day.

There's just a wee bit of snow left in the shade from the sun...it was fun while it lasted.

Did I see somewhere that an easterly is inbound..???

[snawbaw]

Happy Ne'er Day folks - here's to mair ae the white stuff 

[Puffy MacCloud]

18 hours ago, Kayemill said:

It really is a small world. I was at the checkout to your left I’m pretty sure. Seen it happening. Never took in who it happened to and I was too busy running for the drinking straw aisle to aid in the clean up. Did a woman by any chance tell you you dropped your card?

No, that would have been a nice coincidence but the woman next to me was busy telling the cashier that she only kept me because I'm impossibly handsome, hung like a horse and loaded. At least I think that's what she was saying.

Crisp bright morning to herald in a new year. Temperature is 2.1deg.C up from -4.2deg.C at 09:23, humidity is 89%, no wind to speak of, pressure is 1018.6hPa rising slowly, there's been no rain/snaw today and the dew point is 1deg.C.

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, Klippie said:

Did I see somewhere that an easterly is inbound..???

An Easterly of sorts, but we ain't talking Beast from the East territory, not yet anyway. 

Well the last of the Xmas Eve snow is gone from my garden, but that was a week at least some of it survived so that's not too bad. Further uphill in the forest the tracks are still a combination of ice and snow, the snow wet but still a few cm deep. When walking the dog this morning we even got caught in a shower, which was a combination of rain, sleet and wet snow. Not particularly pleasant with it blowing into our faces, but it shows the potential for wintry showers is still there. 

Met forecast is a high of 4C today, but after that the temp is forecast to stay between 2C and 0C through to the end of the forecast on Thursday. Yr.no, based on ECM, is similar but goes out further and from Wed to Fri next week has us sub zero right through. Can't see there being much snow given the forecast high just to our north, but a very good chance that anything that does fall will be on the more wintry side. Those further south might be in with a better chance with the low pressure sitting to the south. 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Ravelin

[Kayemill]

7 minutes ago, Puffy MacCloud said:

No, that would have been a nice coincidence but the woman next to me was busy telling the cashier that she only kept me because I'm impossibly handsome, hung like a horse and loaded. At least I think that's what she was saying.

Crisp bright morning to herald in a new year. Temperature is 2.1deg.C up from -4.2deg.C at 09:23, humidity is 89%, no wind to speak of, pressure is 1018.6hPa rising slowly, there's been no rain/snaw today and the dew point is 1deg.C.

Weird. Must have been two people with bad luck in there yesterday. 
 

Happy new year to all!

Edited January 1, 2021 by Kayemill

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Aye, aside fae the nice looking charts fir cauldies and the covid vaccine rollout, there's no much tae be cheery about this morning. Thank god the sun's out at least.

Anyway, on behalf of my French and Irish family, I say tae Scots 'Haste ye back!'. 

And of course in the meantime, 'bring on the snaw!'.

 

Sub -5 T850's pretty much right oot intae FI. Loads ae potential fir snaw ahead.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Scottish-Irish Skier

[Hawesy]

Happy New Year to all on this wonderful kilted thread. May January be cold and deliver snow for all (even me )!

Lovely start to 2021 here in Pittenweem. Sun is out, skies are blue and it’s currently 3c. 

[JamesM]

Cold one this morning with a very hard frost. Snow all but gone from here so headed up to Whitelee. Even up there, there must have been a significant thaw before everything froze, with lots of hard packed ice on the tracks. Stunning morning.

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by JamesM

[Mair Snaw]

RAIN RAIN RAIN AND MORE F#@#ING RAIN....

Oh happy new year folks.. long may your lum reek.

[Hairy Celt]

7 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

RAIN RAIN RAIN AND MORE F#@#ING RAIN....

Oh happy new year folks.. long may your lum reek.

And may your turds be firm.  (Old Westmorland proverb.)

[mardatha]

Happy NY kilties, and hoping that I get a glimpse of the white stuff yet.

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Quote

Stunning day here temps around 1c with a lot of black ice, nice to see the sun though.

 

 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Happy new year to everyone in the Scotland thread. Not ventured outside yet and unlikely to given that it’ll be dark in half an hour....

[blitzen]

2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

And may your turds be firm.  (Old Westmorland proverb.)

Thanks for that!   I was just about to take a bite out of some rather nice sultana cake!    Maybe later!!

[shuggee]

From 6pm last night the rain carried on here and the temp eventually got up to 1.9°C at 10pm. Then by 8am it was my nineteenth air frost at -0.5°C. 

The thaw cut the snow cover back to a very crispy 7cm and where compression has occurred on steps, paths etc it's like a bloody ice skating rink. Already back to -1.3°C now after an afternoon high of -0.2°C.

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, Blitzen said:

Thanks for that!   I was just about to take a bite out of some rather nice sultana cake!    Maybe later!!

The good thing about fruit cake  is that it keeps well.

Temp above freezing today, but looks likely to drop now with a clearish sky. Tediously dry in the village.

[mistyqueen]

Just back from my friends house after a lovely Ne'er day nosh up! Skies in Skye are clear and sparkly. Temp around 1.9c. Gorgeous night and looks set to continue. Braw! 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

GFS 12Z pretty nice. Gives a nice reload with mair beasterly type Ts.

Certainly good indicaitons for a proper cold pool to develop to our N-E after the initial aperitif we're getting into next week. 

[101_North]

-4c at Edinburgh Airport already! Definitely the potential for this to be the coldest night of the year (see what I did there )! 

101