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Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

I must say, the 12z GFS looks tasty...

3B41A4E5-4380-4193-99CB-11BF3046C5E8.thumb.png.27976f581b712e10f322ad5d5f4b00c3.png

A02F92EC-42C5-4EE5-8076-C451122D4A57.thumb.png.9be62c30660780a33830820fa9873e6c.png

E83923D8-A558-4226-91A7-D633DDC55452.thumb.png.bd92a166d0d19299b4b939e6a7125a7d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, and lots of it
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)
1 hour ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

The GFS shows how marginal it's likely to be tonight - with showers moving into Fife and the Lothians from 6-9pm it also shows this at the 925hPa level:20122821_2812.thumb.gif.72e87c4631bd7b5c6ce7c0d3d401e9a1.gif

Surface temperatures look fine enough away from the immediate coast but it's really a bit above the surface, where the flow is more of a direct easterly for a time, that the marginality sneaks in. The WRF soundings will probably be most useful in placing this in relation to the precipitation because the GFS grid is too coarse but difficult to call either way.

 

Unfortunately my weather station picked a bad time for the battery to die so until the new ones arrive tomorrow I'm flying blind on conditions here (other than the weather station at the other end of the village on Wunderground). 

As you say, I am not sure the GFS is capturing the 925 layer very well. Based on the surface low position, forecasted movement and the weak pressure ridge over the North Sea, I think the 925 winds should have a more northeast component. But even still, the layer is shallow nonetheless as you say. Terrain likely the biggest driver of who gets what tonight. 

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

Showers now being generated out in the Moray Firth and coming this way. A NErly can really deliver in this area but with these upper air temps it's a risky business. -3°C currently and still all white. 

 

Everyone do a snowdance for me please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
10 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

They're both going for a colder trend but there are quite a few differences between the ECM and GFS at +168hrs:

gfs-0-168.thumb.png.b26ca4b1e3446b67dcd65f5d2b189daf.pngECM1-168.thumb.gif.fe9c4c8519b38b8eb3e5dffac26ffbbe.gif

Aye still quite marked disagreements further out - seems to be broadly a northerlyish cold trough setup until New Year with some colder uppers likely to come in just before Hogmanay and the chance of localised features cropping up but beyond that difficult to pin down - the high seems to move closer to us for a bit but whether it settles over Greenland or links up with the Russian high  (or, presumably, some sort of milder option!) is really anyone's guess at this stage, or at least something that would require a bit of poring over the ensembles/teleconnections only for it to change again tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: Dunlop, East Ayrshire (133m asl)
  • Location: Dunlop, East Ayrshire (133m asl)

Had planned a walk around Whitelee again today but took one look at the car park spilling out way down the road and decided against it.
 

Ended up with a walk up the back of the village later on just as the sun went down. I reckon the snow line is around 200 metres but there was a noticeable difference between the house at 130 metres and where I turned round at around 170 metres. Untreated surfaces were all sheet ice and everything is freezing up nicely now. 
 

9751B84F-EF64-46D3-81D1-EF29704F90EE.thumb.jpeg.aabc1d41c88440e623123de12a3ea171.jpeg

7F222A21-6584-44BE-8B8D-3A09A56BAE0E.thumb.jpeg.18bbc1aae7ee2daaf4bd6ed6be79e4a3.jpeg

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F273911B-AEE1-4F09-A1F6-E49F732BB899.thumb.jpeg.7b6a616c80e647a3a6d56d145f905b5e.jpeg
 

Don’t expect to see any further snow here in the coming week but some clear, cold and bright days to look forward to.

Edited by JamesM
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
11 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

As you say, I am not sure the GFS is capturing the 925 layer very well. Based on the surface low position, forecasted movement and the weak pressure ridge over the North Sea, I think the 925 winds should have a more northeast component. But even still, the layer is shallow nonetheless as you say. Terrain likely the biggest driver of who gets what tonight. 

It's a difficult one to forecast certainly - even the 2km WRF doesn't seem to represent the current situation at the surface especially well:

image.thumb.png.9bdb1d7fe7b3a24bb4e134e2a26917ec.png

This is the sounding for here for example, where the current air temperature is -0.4C according to the nearest Traffic Scotland webcam. While I would expect that to rise as the cloud approaches it does make me a bit dubious of the current profile. Probably the best bet for nowcasting for myself is to check @Benvironment's measurements up the hill and if the wet bulb temperature is below freezing there it's probably going to stick as snow down here

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, and lots of it
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)
14 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

It's a difficult one to forecast certainly - even the 2km WRF doesn't seem to represent the current situation at the surface especially well:

image.thumb.png.9bdb1d7fe7b3a24bb4e134e2a26917ec.png

This is the sounding for here for example, where the current air temperature is -0.4C according to the nearest Traffic Scotland webcam. While I would expect that to rise as the cloud approaches it does make me a bit dubious of the current profile. Probably the best bet for nowcasting for myself is to check @Benvironment's measurements up the hill and if the wet bulb temperature is below freezing there it's probably going to stick as snow down here

 

Have a link to those @Benvironment obs?

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
8 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Have a link to those @Benvironment obs?

Unfortunately not, unless he's on and kind enough to share

What I do have is this:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
2 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Anyone understand why these light areas of i presume light snow developing inland? 

weather rrr.JPG

It is indeed! I believe if you go back a couple of hours you can see some convection offshore heading towards Fife, but dying down, but I believe this is it intensifying again as it runs into slightly higher ground. Starting to stick quite quickly here!

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
2 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

settling nicely considering how light it is i guess? 

Yeah, it did get a bit more intense after I took the video (looks like it'll become a bit lighter although more seems to be heading in) but with the frost not lifting it started settling immediately.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
5 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

SNOWING in Abernethy!!!! 
light mind you though

Seems to be pepping up pretty quickly on the south side of the Tay judging by the radar!

Euro4 just out, certainly doesn't show the 950hPa temperatures getting much worse than it is now over the next few hours for Fife, although definitely looks like lowland Aberdeenshire is going to struggle to maintain much snow sadly 

20122818_2812.thumb.gif.44e37a6bc13afdb244b9201d2ac93a6b.gif1510667423_20122821_2812(1).thumb.gif.1b09fc3c6e025545fdbf6e4171ca6abd.gif20122900_2812.thumb.gif.487d19fd47f7c68402dd61fa6b778be7.gif

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Temp 0.1 - check
Dewpoint -1C - check

Cloud in North sea heading this way- check

Met O forecast 5pm. Heavy snow sh - check
Radar showing precipitation. Yes - check.

Actuality. Bone dry and frosty

Much jealousy of other pics and snow reports- check.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Happy Hogmanay from the ECMWF ?️☃️20201228182559-b6213e4379d75c8bb9ff6405972a26541c368640.thumb.png.f86beb76c6936bf80242e48523022b0c.png20201228182713-5bdedb2d8ad21bc09b319d348844198f16efe9b6.thumb.png.7843d7d43e260c47182941b28e691d29.png

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
16 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

SNOWING in Abernethy!!!! 
light mind you though

My favourite part about incoming snow showers is watching the lampposts for the first sign of seeing snow flakes falling. It’s the best feeling in the world 

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Fine  dry day but frost stuck in and never got got above 0c all day so our first ice day.   Currently -1c here.    In the burn valley 2 miles away it got down to -4c early this morning according to a neighbour  but its a well known frost hollow.

Could see those big cumulus shower clouds slowly coming closer all day off the North Sea to the NE. A really winters  scene reminiscent of December 2010 as showers stayed offshore and we just had hard frost.

According to local forecast on here we should expect some sleet showers this side of midnight and the frost should lift leaving a dry  cold cloudy day tomorrow.

 

Edited by Northernlights
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Posted
  • Location: Braemar
  • Weather Preferences: Subzero
  • Location: Braemar
56 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

......and if the wet bulb temperature is below freezing there it's probably going to stick as snow down here

 

Erm.....how the dickens do I find that out??  1C here, dew point is -2.7C and all the snow is passing over Leslie and missing us completely.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Currently 0.8C, dewpoint 0.2C, and it's raining steadily. Disappointing, especially given its hardly been above freezing all day, but coming in off the sea with uppers of -4C it was always going to be touch and go. 

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