Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards

[shuggee]

I've been critical of BBC weather in the past and tonight's going to be no exception. The BBC London output on the news channel appears to be a reasonable estimate based on the models we've all been watching. And then there's BBC Scotland :

 

Goodness me, what a terrible forecast for this evening - do they bother to cross reference with the radar? Ppn west of Glasgow and hardly anything north of the central belt. Same company's model output/graphics, wildly different outcome. Odd to say the least. 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Who wants to take a Gamble on how far across the central belt the band will reach. I reckon it will probably reach as far east as Kinross. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

1 minute ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Who wants to take a Gamble on how far across the central belt the band will reach. I reckon it will probably reach as far east as Kinross. 

As someone about 5 miles east of there that sounds about right But also that does seem a fair estimate, certainly it looks like it's not getting much to the east of that longitude to the north at the moment. 

 

If you squint, I guess you could argue it's maybe got a bit more of an eastward advance going than modelled but that's almost certainly wishful thinking. 

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The 12z wrf nmm 2km doesn’t take the precip very far east and watching the radar I don’t think it will be far off the mark but hopefully a decent amount for you westies does show the North Sea pepping up through tomorrow so chances for east coast and Fife hopefully of at least a few wintry showers, it’s a pretty rare evolution where we get the chilly setup and the models recently and in some fashion tonight build an easterly over the next week or so which could see small upgrades run on run which could increase the chances of it being rather snowy a few % until we get it down to the short range models, then it’s the turn of the stratospheric warming to play out and if we get fortunate maybe further reinforcement of an already cooling setup into cold, proper cold then an outside chance of something truly memorable? Long way to go but as I’ve said always had a feeling that this winter had something up it’s sleeve, could this be the beginnings of it setting up? I’m sure it will continue to be fascinating watching it unfold.  

I think the showers coming into the east tomorrow are more likely to be rain/sleet and snow at higher levels

[edo]

Seems to be snowing in Belfast at the moment so maybe hope for a lot of you guys yet, it does not feel cold enough here that even if it reaches it will be snow but as my weather station broke and I never replaced it I'm just using the how cold is my face whilst walking the dog temp check. I am definitely more hopeful of north sea showers reaching here and being snow tomorrow albeit not huge accumulations. 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

6 minutes ago, edo said:

Seems to be snowing in Belfast at the moment so maybe hope for a lot of you guys yet, it does not feel cold enough here that even if it reaches it will be snow but as my weather station broke and I never replaced it I'm just using the how cold is my face whilst walking the dog temp check. I am definitely more hopeful of north sea showers reaching here and being snow tomorrow albeit not huge accumulations. 

it's around 2c in perth with near 0C dew point. the band might make it as far east as there but the precip might not. watching the stuff to the north too as that will slide SSW or S later. 

[101_North]

Not sure anything will reach here but temp is a steady 0c and dp about -4c (guess who finally stuck a wireless thermometer outside )

[JamesM]

Proper snow now. Big flakes.

[Huntforsnow]

5 minutes ago, JamesM said:

Proper snow now. Big flakes.

Is it lying?

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Incredible snow event Unfolding in Aviemore this evening with already 2 hours of heavy snow fallen here. another hour or 2 seems likely here and i reckon by am there will probably be 15cm or more on the ground here. Incredibly Jealous. 

[JamesM]

3 minutes ago, Huntforsnow said:

Is it lying?

Barely and back to rain now!

[Swave Snow]

3 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Incredible snow event Unfolding in Aviemore this evening with already 2 hours of heavy snow fallen here. another hour or 2 seems likely here and i reckon by am there will probably be 15cm or more on the ground here. Incredibly Jealous. 

im here it reminds me of the good old days I hope it can ramp up even more 

[edo]

Ach well looks like original plan of a game of golf this week will happen.... Albeit a chilly game. 

[NorthernRab]

Sleet and cold rain turned to snow here and we're all white now! 

Showers seem (?) to be a bit more widespread than forecast which hopefully bodes well for this week? 

Edit: we've had very, very large flakes the last 5 minutes, don't think I've seen that many times before! 

Edited December 27, 2020 by NorthernRab

[Benvironment]

Not nearly as snowy as other lucky folk on here, but it was nice and atmospheric at work this morning, and to be honest it's always nice to be gritting cos that means it's COLD!!

 

As ever though, it was snowier out west around Blackridge/Heights  

[Ross B]

Sleet has just turned to wet snow here too... 

[Huntforsnow]

Snow now! And lying

[Hawesy]

1 hour ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

I think the showers coming into the east tomorrow are more likely to be rain/sleet and snow at higher levels

Evening all, dry here in NE Fife. Currently 3c.

Yes I think this is likely @Penicuikblizzard I think you will need around 200m elevation to see accumulating snow near the east coast tomorrow (assuming the showers push inland).

Hope some folks out west see some snow tonight

[101_North]

So in summary...... a bit pish for a lot of us

Edited December 27, 2020 by 101_North

[Cheggers]

Nothing, nada, not even the startings of a frost. 

@edo, might join you for the golf. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

18 z some differences but my thoughts for tomorrow, showers likely to be developing pretty early in the morning with an area of CAPE in the North Sea aiding them, 850 hpa of around -2 to -4 (remember that was the same as the snow at the start of December here) temperatures not much off freezing and well in the sub 528 dam, the only reason I think the precip will vary is the dewpoints with an area of say +2/3 in the North Sea normally we would be looking for lowering dewpoints from there moving in (that might not be far off as mentioned earlier with the model outlooks over the next week or so) but I will have a little gamble and say that Fife has the chance to be a sweet spot for a couple of cms by the end of the day maybe @Big Innes Madori and @Blitzen we shall see hail, sleet, snow and don’t rule out a few rumbles of thunder should be a good chance of convective cloudscapes for photos.  

[Hairy Celt]

As someone wrote earlier, today has felt like a proper winter's day for the first time in a long while. I went for a walk this morning just after a 30 minute snow shower and enjoyed walking along freshly dusted tracks and roads.

In the photo, you're looking roughly south-east over the Hill of Fortrose, with the highest point at about 250m I think.  There was wet snow falling at the top of the village this evening but more like sleet down here by the water.

[Big Innes Madori]

5 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

18 z some differences but my thoughts for tomorrow, showers likely to be developing pretty early in the morning with an area of CAPE in the North Sea aiding them, 850 hpa of around -2 to -4 (remember that was the same as the snow at the start of December here) temperatures not much off freezing and well in the sub 528 dam, the only reason I think the precip will vary is the dewpoints with an area of say +2/3 in the North Sea normally we would be looking for lowering dewpoints from there moving in (that might not be far off as mentioned earlier with the model outlooks over the next week or so) but I will have a little gamble and say that Fife has the chance to be a sweet spot for a couple of cms by the end of the day maybe @Big Innes Madori and @Blitzen we shall see hail, sleet, snow and don’t rule out a few rumbles of thunder should be a good chance of convective cloudscapes for photos.  

Great work as ever KW!

I will report oan any Snaw faw the morra

It stopped as soon as it started earlier this evening, so only a very slight covering here the noo

[edo]

13 minutes ago, Cheggers said:

Nothing, nada, not even the startings of a frost. 

@edo, might join you for the golf. 

I'm thinking St Michael's or Drumoig who both use normal greens near the coast of Fife... I was convinced I would have a couple of cms of snow this week to stop it but hey ho I'm off the week after next aswell so maybe I shall have snow at some point in the holidays. 

Just had final dog walk of day and feels chillier, wispy cloud and no precip. 

[edo]

Loving the multiple GIFS KW