Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards

[101_North]

Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good night! 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Another North Sea snow streamer chart showing up... 

[LomondSnowstorm]

8 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@LomondSnowstorm it was actually a front  1st February 2019, still a rare achievement to get it producing in Fife from the north  

 

Well remembered! I was actually away in Austria at the time, ironically in one of the worst winters for snow on record there

Other examples would be, I think November 25th 2005 (I remember it came on just as I was heading to school):

and, I think, December 19th 2009, although that one was maybe a cm at most:

[Sunshineandshowers84]

I remember 19th December 2009 we had gone a week or so in freezing conditions and it turned slightly milder and that day a cold front pushed through over Glasgow with heavy rain turning to heavy snow quickly at all levels and freezing conditions behind it. Thereafter we went weeks with low temps and that continued on and off until March. I can remember Hogmanay 2009 and it was severely cold. Don’t remember too much snow that winter it was mainly cold, crisp weather.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Merry Christmas folks! I've been on various overly sweet Christmassy drinks (and beer) so this may not be my best summary but a few points on how the charts have changed since yesterday:

 

a) the low is holding a bit further north on Sunday than the GFS had yesterday, suggesting some model agreement (yesterday the ECM had it further north and west but the GFS had it bringing in a 'too warm' easterly early doors) :

Is this a good development? Broadly yes - as the cold air is being advected down the west and then south of the low, the worry I had was a scenario where the low sunk before any of the cold air could reach us, leaving us with some surface cold where skies cleared but without too much chance of either snow from the west (often a good setup for a lot of us) or enough of a localised upper cold pool building up to withstand any warm sectors.

b) there seems to be less chance of that 'too warm' easterly, with the low pressure generally more slack and the appearance of some secondary lows to the north:

Is this a positive development? Absolutely - what is really not wanted is any sort of surface level mixing in this setup. As with our brief but heavy snowfall a few weeks ago, the ideal setup is convection building offshore, along the line of a front or secondary low/trough of some sort, moving inland, but slowly/ with winds from the land at surface level so the cold pool that should develop isn't immediately blown away and any warmer sector is unable to move in behind it. this works with either the upper level easterly/lower level northerly (a la December 23rd 2009/a few weeks ago) or one of your classic frontal snowfalls with southerly surface winds (March 12th 2006, or February 5th 1996), although these are a bit different in some ways.

Generally the models have a bit less precipitation around but significantly more surface cold, and at this stage that's a tradeoff I'd definitely take. The one negative I guess is the tendency of the models to take the main low a bit further west, and in general sometimes build put additional lows to the west of us - these can end up alright but a 'west based negative NAO' is one of the few setups from this broad synoptic pattern that could cause things to go wrong. None of the runs quite show that though, some of the mesoscale models have had higher snowfall totals and there's still potential in almost every major run well out into the realms of Fantasy Island (300+ hours).

Another point to flag up is perhaps an extension of the snow risk north and westwards too - the low being further north and more secondary features is a bonus although I would expect the mountains to take a pasting in almost all possible scenarios.

All in all, as good a Christmas output as I've seen in a few years for snowfall

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by LomondSnowstorm

[Northernlights]

13 minutes ago, Sunshineandshowers84 said:

I remember 19th December 2009 we had gone a week or so in freezing conditions and it turned slightly milder and that day a cold front pushed through over Glasgow with heavy rain turning to heavy snow quickly at all levels and freezing conditions behind it. Thereafter we went weeks with low temps and that continued on and off until March. I can remember Hogmanay 2009 and it was severely cold. Don’t remember too much snow that winter it was mainly cold, crisp weather.

Yes New Years Eve here was very snowy.Tried to get to local smithy for a repair but had to turn car around.This was the last winter I remember being able to go for a walk in the woods with deep snow cover in shaded areas in mid March when all the snow had gone in the fields.This snow in  the woods lasting from Christmas to mid March was a feature of winters in the sixties and early seventiesso you could go for a snow fix for three months or so when I was growing up. Just feel that this winter may just give us similar.Bulbs are very slow to peek through compared to some of our recent mild winters and both sheep and cattle were very restless today sometimes an indication of stormy weather. Picture of woods in Mid March 2010 and garden shed New Years Eve 2009

[ghoneym]

Merry Christmas all! Hope you have to all have to tunnel your way out your homes some point soon bring on the snawwwww

[NorthernRab]

Nollaig Chridheil dhuibh / Merry Christmas all! 

Not a snowy one but here's hoping for a snowy Hogmanay! Cheers all and enjoy! 

[Cheggers]

Merry Xmas to all, hope santa brings the white stuff with him. 

Chilling in the hot tub and it's - 2c, just need the snaw now.

[TinyTim]

Merry Christmas everyone! 

Have a good one, and I'm hoping that if I've been a good boy, Santa might deliver... even if he's a few days late

Tim

[Serac]

Merry Christmas one and all

 

ready those sledges 

[snowidea]

Nadelik Lowen (Merry Christmas for those who don't speak Cornish) from a frosty Falkirk

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Merry Christmas to all of you hopefully Santa brought you what u desired, rumour has it he’s working very hard on my snowy streamer easterly
Lows overnight here of -0.9C / DP -3.4C 

only had a little check of the overnight charts but a few like these  

And I guess this could be a wee Christmas quiz of sorts @LomondSnowstorm trying to guess the variety of precip that would be happening, is the 528 dam centred like that or are those the areas that are on the outside of it  

[Ravelin]

We got a lovely Xmas gift from Mother Nature when we opened the curtains this morning....

I hope Santa was kind to everyone. I hope you all have a great day, don't get too stuffed, or too tipsy.

[Cheggers]

Cold, frosty but raining

[Stormeh]

Merry Christmas everyone! 

Just reading though some fantastic posts on this forum, I really need to get back to posting more regularly 

[LomondSnowstorm]

7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Merry Christmas to all of you hopefully Santa brought you what u desired, rumour has it he’s working very hard on my snowy streamer easterly
Lows overnight here of -0.9C / DP -3.4C 

only had a little check of the overnight charts but a few like these  

And I guess this could be a wee Christmas quiz of sorts @LomondSnowstorm trying to guess the variety of precip that would be happening, is the 528 dam centred like that or are those the areas that are on the outside of it  

Fascinating to see that occlusion, certainly suggests the potential for the models to underestimate the precipitation (although again it seems difficult to pin down details even 48 hours out!). 

The sub 528 zone is east of the occlusion so good news for both of us But we'll see - I'm planning to do a summary tomorrow since the first snow will be within the 'semi reliable' 24 hour period

 

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

10 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'm a little bit surprised that the Met-O don't have some sort of generalised Snow/Ice warning out for Sunday onwards for parts of Scotland. The wet & windy weather turns cold very quickly tomorrow night so there is a reasonable chance of people getting caught out at least by ice if unprepared. The set-up looks promising but could go either way and really depends where you are in Scotland. The usual balance of being as far north-west as possible but inland and at altitude. 

Agreed - Sunday morning has a real chance of disruptive snowfall for a good chunk of Scotland, and that's just for starters. On the other hand though, it's not exactly unusual for them to be slow to put warnings out for Scotland...

[Hawesy]

Merry Christmas everyone. No snow but Santa did give me my first air frost of the month with a low of -0.4c this morning. The bright frosty start was replaced by cloud, breeze and a little rain.

A few interesting days to come! 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Merry Christmas tae all.

Hope santa wis guid tae aebody! 

EDIT. Anyone having problems with chrome for the forum? I get errors, but works fine on edge. Couldn't see if my post the other day had worked.

Anyway, mair chances for snaw as we head tae 2021?

 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by scottish skier

[Ravelin]

@scottish skierNo problem with chrome for me, on both android tablet and Win10 PC.

Up to 5.2C outside now, hopefully the snow here won't take too much of a hit before it turns colder again early Sunday. 

[JamesM]

Merry Christmas everyone . 
 

Early frost which gave way to some greyness and drizzle. Tomorrow looking like a day for sitting in front of the fire.

[shuggee]

Merry Christmas evening! Thirteenth air frost at -4.0°C chilly. 

Accidentally left the hosepipe on outside overnight and there's a pin hole leaking fine spray - all over the rosemary plant. Pretty. 

[Northernlights]

Hope everyone has had a great day.  Highlight of mine was a taste of summer with the first ever thawed out frozen  cherries  from our own tree after 7 fruitless years in  a fruit salad . Scrumptious!!!!!

Mostly dry and breezy today and currently 7c

 

[Sanserit]

Merry Christmas one and all, hope you've all had a good day. I've been spoiled rotten following my injury though I have missed cooking the Christmas dinner.

Snow still lying here but drizzly rain on now. High of 6.3c just after 6pm after an overnight low of -1.3c, currently 5.5c. Kids (both adults) are off for a breakfast bbq with their father tomorrow, glad its not me is all I'll say. At least the forecast is now saying it'll stay dry for them until early afternoon.