Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards

[Puffy MacCloud]

Yesterday after lunch (lentil soup, two bacon rolls, large wedge of chocolate sponge, pot of tea,) the sun came out and it turned into a lovely day.

Today isn't like that.

Temperature 8.9deg.C up from 5.4deg.C at midnight, relative humidity is 89%, the wind has slackened to 1 - 5mph southerly from a maximum gust of 18mph at 09:26, pressure is 995.8hPa steady, there's been 0.8mm of rain today and 5.0mm in the last 24 hours and cloud cover is 8/8. Oh, and it's already dark.

[Sceptical]

The Met Office 10 day outlook suggests colder weather will arrive next week with the risk of wintry showers for the North.

 

[Quinach]

Back to Aberdeenshire Permagloom™ - but they promise sunshine tomorrow 

Very wet morning, then dry but overcast the rest of the day.

Fresh SSW/SW wind and actually quite mild with a max of 8.6c.

[Quinach]

It appears mountain hares are snow optimists, much to their cost.... https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/16/mountain-hares-at-risk-as-winter-coats-fail-to-camouflage-in-snowless-scottish-highlands

[Benvironment]

10 hours ago, Quinach said:

Back to Aberdeenshire Permagloom™ - but they promise sunshine tomorrow 

 

The east must surely be in the running for one of the dullest Decembers on record? To be honest the only coping mechanism I have for winter months like this is getting up into the snow on the higher hills....but that looks like being off limits well into the new year. Ugh, it sucks!

[mistyqueen]

Good morning all! It's a wee bit clearer today so will hopefully venture out for a walk later. I see New York is getting a bit of a pasting with the white stuff. 3 feet in some places.  So according to the charts this is January 1st.  Hhhhhmmm, I doubt it, but we'll see. The charts change so quickly so we'll see how that goes! 

Edited December 17, 2020 by mistyqueen

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

23 hours ago, mistyqueen said:

Phew! 45 minutes of log chopping there! A wee break in the rain forced me out and my timing was just right! Dark clouds coming in now. Am now relaxing with tea and peanut M&M's. Aaaaaaand breathe...... 

 

Just now, mistyqueen said:

Phew! 45 minutes of log chopping there! A wee break in the rain forced me out and my timing was just right! Dark clouds coming in now. Am now relaxing with tea and peanut M&M's. Aaaaaaand breathe...... 

 Sounds like you are having a big bit of deja vu there misty

[mistyqueen]

5 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 Sounds like you are having a big bit of deja vu there misty

NO idea what happened there! Sorted now! 

[Sceptical]

Another fine day here in Aberdeenshire. Just about warm enough to sit outside with a cup of coffee. Currently 8C

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

The dream scenario  

44 inches is insane!! 

Think some reports of around 12-15 inches in around 2 hours, really fascinating the amount of energy these systems generate, the southern end produced quite a big tornado for the time of year in Tampa Bay Florida. Also check my snow and ice twitter thread out Japan huge sea effect snow that's what's intriguing me obviously it would be a much less intense version but I imagine if / when we get the cold upper air coming over the north sea could be some intense snow streamers due to the sea temps. 

[blitzen]

17 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The dream scenario  

44 inches is insane!! 

Think some reports of around 12-15 inches in around 2 hours, really fascinating the amount of energy these systems generate, the southern end produced quite a big tornado for the time of year in Tampa Bay Florida. Also check my snow and ice twitter thread out Japan huge sea effect snow that's what's intriguing me obviously it would be a much less intense version but I imagine if / when we get the cold upper air coming over the north sea could be some intense snow streamers due to the sea temps. 

Stop it...  You tease !

[Puffy MacCloud]

Northern Japan has had two metres of snow in two days, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it, Yanks. Meanwhile I'm just back from lunch (industrial turkey dinner,) and can report that although we're still, thankfully, avoiding the seasonal permapish, it's been dull and raw all day.

Temperature 7.4deg.C down from max of 7.8deg.C at midnight and up from min of 6.2deg.C at 05:12, humidity is 89%, wind was gusting to 14mph earlier but now around 0 to 4mph southeasterly, pressure 1005.6hPa falling, there's been 2.4mm of rain today and 6.2mm in the last 24 hours and cloud cover is 8/8, which is why it's already dark.

[Mair Snaw]

Not been in the mad house today yet as have been away for kitten cuddles. But last night the mood was very downbeat.

We have a name for the kitten now so her she is Bella 

[Puffy MacCloud]

@Mair Snaw They've now got to the point of discussing how little the charts need to change before predicting sleet in SouthernSoftieLand. It's quite cute really, but not as cute as your new kitten.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Been following the model thread quite closely which is unusual for me, and they’re holding up quite well in the main. Seems that although a cooler or cold spell of some description is likely, the exact outcome in terms of temps, snow and length is very much up in the air.

A trend Im detecting though is that the models aren’t factoring in the big winter storm in the NE US very well, which may well throw everything the models are saying out of kilter, with regards to the output for ourselves next week. The implication I think is that an as yet un predicted wet and windy scenario could reveal itself. I hope not, as I’m looking forward to some crisp weather, and a period of sub zero temps with ice days is a bit overdue. Last one I can recall was Dec 2010.

I’ve always had the impression such spells were a once per decade thing for here - I’m thinking 2010, 2009, 2002(?), 1995, 1987.... 

Edited December 17, 2020 by Glaswegianblizzard

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 hours ago, Blitzen said:

Stop it...  You tease !

After seeing @lorenzo 's post in the strat thread I believe it is he who is the tease

[Sceptical]

8 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

After seeing @lorenzo 's post in the strat thread I believe it is he who is the tease

Sounds intriguing, whats the general gist? Should I buy a scarf or speedos?

?

[lorenzo]

Not teasing I promise, am enjoying this winter as it's severely random..

No SSW is a definite route to cold i.e. no one can say - Yay, SSW - Guaranteed we will benefit.. 

The post in the strat thread is around the upward wave activity disrupting the vortex, last year it beasted the entire winter going into absolute steroid mode leaving us at the mercy of endless crap synoptics.

This season the Troposphere and Stratosphere are disconnected, we are not subject to facing down the barrel of doom.

The chart attached shows Wave Activity Flux - EP Flux impacting the vortex, it's great to see a vortex which is already unsettled, be subject to more wave - driving. Simply put arrows pointing right mean that energy can impact the polar vortex as we see here at 50 / 30 hpa - Left graphic. Then arrows that are equatorward do not. 

In this plot we see clear signs of the EP Flux disrupting the vortex as the arrows are pointed poleward vs equatorward.

Why this matters more than most is that the vortex has a typical cycle where it will fire up and continue to fire up across winter, this is a VI period, Vortex Intensification. It spins and connects to the troposphere and - that's all she wrote, no matter what happens in the troposphere we get over-ridden by this climatological intensification period. 

It lasts 30 -60 days and varies in strength, it is one of weather's givens.

This year the stratosphere and troposphere are not connected at all, meaning what the Polar Vortex is doing way up high does not always translate down to the troposphere. And, we have signs ahead of continued disruption. 

This means we are not subject to winter is over or things going 'tits up' , quite the opposite. We can look forward to further changes, and looking at that flux chart this evening. An SSW is imo a strong possibility.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

16 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Sounds intriguing, whats the general gist? Should I buy a scarf or speedos?

?

I’ll refer back to my puzzle / Lego terminology everything coming together nicely the building blocks falling into place, not sure if @lorenzo is of the same thinking or if @LomondSnowstorm has had a look at the charts but my thinking currently is things could become interesting as we head through the Christmas- New year week and thereafter from a few areas, ensembles are toying around at the min with the idea of the high in the Atlantic linking up with the one to the east which is forecast to strengthen over the next few weeks somewhere around 1060/1065 hpa and one thing I usually look for is lower pressure either to the south or south west of UK as majority of times this is helpful in trying to get an easterly, basically stops the pattern falling apart so easily with higher pressure inclined to develop to the north of the low - a rough idea these will continue to have adjustments in following runs 

and the other area being the stratosphere which Lorenzo has explained greatly I’m nowhere near as knowledgeable as some of the strat guys on here like Lorenzo tho I understand enough, things becoming increasingly warm up there again through the Christmas- new year week next thing I’m looking for is hopefully the ensembles to start showing the splits in the PV certainly getting closer over the last few days. 

[Quinach]

Work necessitated a trip to Inverness (Strathnairn to be precise).

Hidden gem of an area, short distance from Inverness but very peaceful and drop dead gorgeous.

Just god-awful roads to deal with.   You can definitely tell when you cross into the Highland Council area, just look for the crumbling road shoulders and potholes along the single track roads - at least Aberdeenshire Council resource that part a bit better.

Anyway, getting back to the weather, lovely sunny day there and ground conditions as saturated as over here.  Max of 7c with light winds.  Was surprised to encounter some heavy rain between Forres and Elgin on the drive back this evening.

Keith wins the A96 Christmas Light display award this year, especially this house you see as you enter/exit the town from the East.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/moray/2671117/keith-christmas-lights-spread-festive-cheer/

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Lots of positive sounding posts and charts being posted, but until I see snow falling and settling with my own eyes, and feel the raw wind on my face, I believe nothing.

[JamesM]

The mad house is a happy place at the moment. Can’t help feeling that the boom charts they are getting excited about are always around day 10 though. But to my untrained eye and following some of the more knowledgeable posters, I do get the feeling something is afoot. But like you say @Glaswegianblizzard until the snow if falling, I won’t believe anything!

Back to the here and now, so far it’s another day of gloom, although at least it’s dry. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 yeah that would let us see if the North Sea snow machine would indeed be an improved character this year

[Stormeh]

Good to see some interesting charts, let’s hope it continues. I want some snow

[Cheggers]

Was out at Tunnock's yesterday and as is always the case, it tipped it down, but have got stock for the impending potential freeze.