Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Just now, Mr Frost said:

Do you have any thoughts on this Winter? Just a predicted rating out of ten will do for now. 

I just read @Steve Murr pretty much writing off the next forty days for snow. 

Long range outlooks/models are not great either.

It can’t be as bad as last year...can it!? 

Not any that anyone would enjoy reading Mr Frost...

The vortex is uber cold this year, and there is a severe lack of any kind of Heat Flux transport at 100 hPa to disrupt it. Last year and year before during Novembers we had big wave breaking events that caused heat flux to disrupt the vortex during ( basically winter teases),  and at least give us something to hope for, or chase.

This season sees a really consistent Pacific pattern, which is only progressing minimally i.e. La Nina background, and really slow impacts of the MJO wave. 

Then, we know about the Vortex intensification period, a classic period where the vortex goes off on one and has tendency to return to home ( parked at Greenland where we want blocking to happen), results in a westerly regime and where blocks collapse quickly ( topplers as they are called here).

For Vortex Intensification - think of where you crank up a spinning top, and with each turn it gets faster and faster. You stop and some latent acceleration, then slowly the original force eases off.

Think of the MJO or Heat Flux created by blocking or wave breaks as being things that slow the spinning top down a little. This season it appears to be thus far unimpeded. 

We do have some flux in the Jetstream up coming, however we  really need that perfect wave break to disrupt proceedings. There is nothing I can stick a pin on right now and say - yes this might disrupt that usual canonical intensification period.

This means we are staring down the barrel of a vortex doing it's thing, impinging on tropospheric patterns for a period of time until we get a trigger that will create some disruption, for this you then look at the next MJO transfer across the Pacific and what can it do to reshuffle the deck.

All that being said for now, it is certainly not the same vortex profile as last yr, which was truly exceptional, which gives us some small degree of hope. And, finally, the 'perfect' set ups may be ruled out by this period i.e. the big blocking and 'classic' set ups. Some of our strongest impact events have been from cold AM westerlies over recent yrs.

 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rural East Ayrshire 127m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and bright.
  • Location: Rural East Ayrshire 127m asl
22 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Never used to bother you!

muscle-snowman.jpg

So was it johnnie steroid or jack frost that, em, diminished his speedos?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
9 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Helloooo!

Mind still in the gutter I see.   You know I thought of you when I posted that!

We were all wondering why SW Saltire hadn't turned up on here for days.   Especially as he set off back to Uni. in a raging blizzard.   We did find him a few days later though!

 

 

Lol. You turn the place into some sort of page 3 retro show, whaddya expect, culture?

Rain on again, 6.5C.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Sorry @Hairy Celt a good two hours under the floor boards, then read again it will all make sense !

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
26 minutes ago, Puffy MacCloud said:

So was it johnnie steroid or jack frost that, em, diminished his speedos?

I gotta go with jack frost!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rural East Ayrshire 127m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and bright.
  • Location: Rural East Ayrshire 127m asl
9 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

I gotta go with jack frost!

Cool!

Talking of which, temperature now down to 7.2deg.C and rainfall up to 16.4mm for the day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
55 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

@Ravelin im camping in your garden tonight...

That'll confuse the dog, and not my fault if the only wetness you feel is her licking you incessantly. 

Personally I'm not exactly hopefully of anything beyond a slight sleety mess on the car when I wake up in the morning. What looked like a possible cold snap has predictably ended up as a blink and you'll miss it affair. The excitement of the GFS FI has even gone missing the last few runs too, bummer. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
7 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

That'll confuse the dog, and not my fault if the only wetness you feel is her licking you incessantly. 

Personally I'm not exactly hopefully of anything beyond a slight sleety mess on the car when I wake up in the morning. What looked like a possible cold snap has predictably ended up as a blink and you'll miss it affair. The excitement of the GFS FI has even gone missing the last few runs too, bummer. 

That's the AGW winter for you.  You can give it all the technopiffle you like but the atmosphere is changing so quickly that long-lasting snowy spells seem really unlikely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
1 hour ago, Mair Snaw said:

@Ravelin A slight sleety mess! Im sure ive seen that film before

It's the modern day sequel to A Day After Tomorrow 

5c93a061daa507002109d245?width=1000&form 3313902+042717.N.DNT_.ICEc1_.jpg

Currently 4.2C, breezy and raining here. 

Edited by Ravelin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
16 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

It's the modern day sequel to A Day After Tomorrow 

5c93a061daa507002109d245?width=1000&form 3313902+042717.N.DNT_.ICEc1_.jpg

Currently 4.2C, breezy and raining here. 

Think the film @Mair Snaw described sounded like something rhyming with slight  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
8 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

It's the modern day sequel to A Day After Tomorrow 

5c93a061daa507002109d245?width=1000&form 3313902+042717.N.DNT_.ICEc1_.jpg

Currently 4.2C, breezy and raining here. 

ROFLMAO  

5.5C and windy, dry for now.

VW pocket rocket has nice wide Nokian Weatherproofs on now. The Bridgestone Weathercontrols I put on it for the Iceland roadtrip last year managed about 10k miles then were down to the wear limits so I wouldn't recommend them (although the wear rate may have had something to do with a day of high speed, mild weather travel on German autobahns ).  The Yeti is about to get a set of Goodyear Vector 3 cos they came out very well in recent reviews.  All the good winter and all-season tyres seem to have much the same sort of tread design but there's maybe more differences in the compounds used.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
2 hours ago, lorenzo said:

Sorry @Hairy Celt a good two hours under the floor boards, then read again it will all make sense !

 

Half a bottle of Chateauneuf du Pape and I still don't get it. Perhaps something stronger needed?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
3 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Half a bottle of Chateauneuf du Pape and I still don't get it. Perhaps something stronger needed?

A bottle of PV, it’s strong and the effects take forever to wear off

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rural East Ayrshire 127m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and bright.
  • Location: Rural East Ayrshire 127m asl

The promised high pressure holiday has arrived and it's clear, calm and sunny outside. It's also cold. Meanwhile Diablo's promise of snow has proved to be entirely without foundation and I'm beginning to think that it works for the Daily Express.

Temperature 1.5deg.C up from a minimum of 1.0deg.C twenty minutes ago, humidity is 96%, it's currently calm and pressure is 1028.4hPa rising quickly while 0.2mm of rain has fallen since midnight.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Snaw falling again... what had settled this morning is clinging on in the shade, does make it a snaw day??

20201119_100502.jpg

20201119_100514.jpg

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...