Hurricane Delta

[booferking]

145mph & 956mb now.

[kold weather]

Microwave imagery strongly hints that Delta is going through a quickfire EWRC. Recon found no evidence a few hours ago of a secondary eyewall but with such a tiny eye the internal structure will shift very rapidly and such systems have often simply powered through and not weakened at all as they normally do when undergoing this process.

Recon will probably give a better idea of whether this is actually happening. Such tiny eyes are rarely very stable for too long. I know the NHC don't think this is the case, but its very suspect to me and whilst I bow down to their superior knowledge, its not the first time I've seen this type of presentation.

[crimsone]

An eyewall of 4 miles, hey?

So, what's the technical difference between a hurricane like this and a very large tornado, apart from origin?

Again, I turned my back for half a day. There must be some kind of record here?

[Ryukai]

28 minutes ago, crimsone said:

An eyewall of 4 miles, hey?

So, what's the technical difference between a hurricane like this and a very large tornado, apart from origin?

Again, I turned my back for half a day. There must be some kind of record here?

Hurricane Patricia (2015) went from Tropical storm to Cat 5 in about 24 hours, so it would need to beat that to get the top spot for fastest Hurricane intensification, but it's probably a close 2nd.

 

Taken from Wikipedia : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorological_history_of_Hurricane_Patricia#Records

Quote

The magnitude of Patricia's rapid intensification is among the fastest ever observed. In a 24-hour period, 06:00–06:00 UTC October 22–23, its maximum sustained winds increased from 85 mph (140 km/h) to 205 mph (335 km/h). This represents a record increase of 120 mph (195 km/h). During the same period, Patricia's central pressure fell by 95 mbar (hPa; 2.81 inHg).[2] This fell just short of the world-record intensification set by Typhoon Forrest in 1983, which featured a pressure drop of 100 mbar (hPa; 2.95 inHg) in just under 24 hours.

 

Edited October 6, 2020 by Ryukai

[matty40s]

HARD rock Hotel still streaming, someone on the beach with a torch!!

[Lauren]

Blimey! Potential for huge damage with Cancun and Playa Del Carmen right in the firing line. I was in Tulum 5 years ago today and there was the very outskirts of a tropical storm that caused terrible flooding for a day, so god knows what it's going to be like.

[Lauren]

Another good webcam here: https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/mexico/quintana-roo/solidaridad/playa-del-carmen.html

[joggs]

Any update on the development side of things?. Thanks.

[crimsone]

I just kind of feel like Louisiana doesnt need this again.

[crimsone]

31 minutes ago, joggs said:

Any update on the development side of things?. Thanks.

The central pressure is up.  If that 4nm wide eye underwent a replacement cycle, the replacement didn't show up in time. It's possibly back down to Cat 2, but officially it's still a 3.

What's happened here is, clearly, I finally started paying attention to it and it stopped developing.

Edited October 7, 2020 by crimsone

[Ryukai]

2 hours ago, Lauren said:

Another good webcam here: https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/mexico/quintana-roo/solidaridad/playa-del-carmen.html

Just saw some lightning flashes   (Definitely not power flashes as there was that half screen, tear, flicker thing that cams tend to do with lightning.)

EDIT: More lightning flashes, flashes coming from the left side seems closer and when it pans right you can see the clouds lighting up in the distance over the sea.

EDIT 2 : Found this one! IT HAS SOUND!!!! YOU MAY NEED TO TYPE LOUDER TO READ OVER THE NOISE!

 

 

Edited October 7, 2020 by Ryukai

[summer blizzard]

There appears to be subsidence in the upper troposphere (a dry air level capping the system). Currently at 115mph with an open eyewall so probably going to category 2 at the next update.

[Ryukai]

Wow, look at that shockwave racing out from it on all sides, looks like an air pressure wave from an explosion o_O

 

Seen it do this a few times now, but it's 'normally' just on the SW side, this it the first full circle I've seen.

Edited October 7, 2020 by Ryukai

[crimsone]

We have landfall. According to NHC, it's crossing over near Puerto Morelos, landfalling at 1030z with sustained winds estimated at 110 mph, and a pressure of 972mb.

That's category 2 for now, and we'll see how it fares over the land once it emerges back over the GoM.

[Ryukai]

Loads of Livestreaming Webcams here (webcamsdemexico) https://www.youtube.com/channel/UColBcWm6ybTbQnNuQS8JaKg

Check the timestamp at the top, It's current 6:30 am and it's beginning to get light now, so any with earlier times are not working.  Quite a few have gone down as the powers gone out so I'm assuming the one still up and running are on backup generators.

Here's one that's still up, you can see waves hitting the hut despite it being on a small cliff overlooking the beach!, and talk about a red sunrise!

 

Edited October 7, 2020 by Ryukai

[Lauren]

Doesn't look too bad there right now so I presume we're in the eye or nearabouts?

[Allseasons-Si]

 

[matty40s]

Probably not good news for Louisiana with the hurricane being just offshore the peninsula rather than crossing it.

https://earth.nullschool.net/

[alr1970]

All the ways Hurricane Delta is a historic storm

(It's a long list).

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/07/weather/historic-storm-hurricane-delta/index.html

[crimsone]

NHC  pre-recon estimation of the strength following the Yucatan Peninsula appears to be on the generous side, as they've suggested. Recon recently went through finding a pressure of 980mb, and peak surface winds in the N of 70kt, and a slightly more dubious reading of around 60kt in the NE quadrant.

They found no eye for their vortec message, and I can't find much sign of one on the satellite either, but it's still got a decent CDO, and some decent spiral banding.

It's got a little bit of reorganisation to do, and from what little I can see, it's attempting to do it.

[matty40s]

 

[summer blizzard]

973mb dropsonde, strengthening again.

[summer blizzard]

Delta has strengthened again a little to 100mph but is broadly stable and growing in size.

[Gray-Wolf]

Sat. images show it undergoing some growth this a.m.

I wonder how the daylight hours will treat it? Plenty of warmed ocean to go at too!

I predict it to bomb back up into a Major again now it's free of land interaction?

[AderynCoch]

Looks like the EWRC before landfall spared Cancun from worse damage.

Delta appears to be expanding its wind field at the expense of maximum winds, which would make it similar to Ike's reorganisation in the western GoM in 2008. On that occasion winds were Cat. 2 at landfall but the storm surge was more typical of a major hurricane due to the storm's size. 

Edited October 8, 2020 by AderynCoch